PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Surface temps in Wake during the event do not look that great to me... I think we will see a lot of melting of anything that falls. With that said, the time frame between Monday-Wednesday is super cold. So anything on the ground have a hard time melting and thawing until Wednesday/Thursday.
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Geographically, you reach a limit to how far east the cold can go due to the CAD. Unless you have an anomalously strong high, it won't really get past US-1
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To me, the maps look better and more expansive. What don't you like? The lower totals overall? More realistic I think. There WILL be mixing with this storm. I didn't stay up so I'm just basing this on what I see this morning.
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The strength of the CAD will be the one of the key players in this, the other being the mid-level warm air that will sneak in. This will not be correctly modeled until 24-48 hours before go time probably.
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Thanks for clarifying!
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I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.
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With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain.. All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off.
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I don't like that map. Shows southern wake with almost zilch! haha
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Look at that classic Wake County gradient on the weathernerds map. I agree with that map, but I could cut totals by at least 50% in all areas.
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Some flurries possible Monday morning if the deformation band pivots through.
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I agree. I did the same thing. For Southern Wake it could be 4-6 hours of snow/ice before changeover. I then wonder about conditions after that and refreeze/black ice potential.
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Another Wake county special. North of 64 looks like at least a mix. South of 64 = rain. (12Z GFS)
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True, but I could see some snow and then changeover to rain that washes it all away.
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Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses? Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out. I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.
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Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake. I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need. Borderline = rain.
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Remember that ensembles are much more reliable at this point....wait until euro ensembles before getting down in the dumps.
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I'm more interested in the euro ensembles than deterministic, this far out.
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I think that's very fair at this point. It is only Monday. Plenty of time to make adjustments to schedules if need be.
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Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do.
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For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time. Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area. The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event. Too early to see those details. When will the players be able to be sampled? Wednesday/Thursday?
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I know that. I meant, is it simply surface temps that are causing that discrepancy? -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I'm in Willow Spring in southern wake and it is not sticking to my roads. Yet, 12 miles to my northwest, roads are covered. What difference does 12 miles make? Is it just surface temps? -
The temperatures will only drop if the precipitation is falling at a heavy enough rate for a sustained period of time. As soon as that lets up or stops, then temperatures go right back up.
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Really surprised how much the SREF is showing for RDU. I'm not buying it at all. I'd cut down those amounts by 75% or more.
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It is exciting because it is the first event of the season for a lot of us, but I agree with her statements. Fun to see snow flakes flying, but I'm not cancelling any of my saturday plans because of it.
