PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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FWIW, the SREF plumes for RDU show a mean of almost 1"... I know they aren't that reliable, but I'm still surprised they even show that.
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Are ensembles (euro) still showing anything for Monday?
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Oh well! Can't get every system! Looks like our best hope in NC is with the Monday system. European ensembles are way more aggressive with this one than the American.
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So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday? Is that some sort of deformation band? Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?
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Once again, the low isn't going to just plow through the high. If the high retreats or weakens, that would allow the system to come north.
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With the GFS and CMC, what is the ice/sleet potential looking like for central NC?
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Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD. However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF.
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Not a lot of maps posted. That tells me all I need to know about the model runs last night. While snow seems to be out of the picture for my area, I am still intrigued by sleet/freezing rain possibilities. Overall, this setup reminds me of the last one. My area of Wake got about 2 hours of snow and then a bunch of sleet and plain rain. Even the next day, it was mostly rain.
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Oh.. So today's model runs were definitely not good for central NC. On to tomorrow!
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according to GFS, right? Euro/eps still more strung out?
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NWS RAH mentioned confluence to the north as being something that would aid this system.
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Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment. Maybe a little mix before a changeover to rain. I think everyone in Piedmont turns over to rain and most of the accumulation (if any) melts by mid-day. Same thing with the last system.
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Looking pretty impossible (at this point) for Wake County to see a lot of snow. Mixed precip is definitely looking more likely. Surface temps look really warm and plus a big warm nose.
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Well it isn't going to plow into a high pressure system, so maybe some overrunning occurs with the strong CAD.
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FIshel showed a graphic that gives central NC a 10% chance of >.25 wintry precip.
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Remember that freezing rain is also a self-limiting process. Very difficult to get the totals shown on some of those maps...but someone could see significant icing (based on current modeling). Still a long ways out.
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The difference in the FV3 from the previous run is the high pressure doesn't lock in place in time and allows the low to move more north. I also came to post that it is amazing how the line (with CAD events) is always through Wake. I'm convinced that there is a physical limit to the geographic extent that the cold air can intrude with an average CAD event and it is Wake Co. Unless it is an anomalously strong High, the CAD just doesn't intrude all the way through the county.
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January 10-12 looks cold to me. Not super cold, but something to watch.
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I just mean that you don't need sustained cold to get a nice storm. You need 1-2 days of cold combined with a good storm track. 40s-60s are the new norm around here in the winter.
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We don't need a prolonged cold spell, anyway. All we need is good timing for a southern system linking up with a shot of cold air, a la early December. As long as there are some shots of cold air, we have a chance. At least we don't have the southeast ridge dominating the discussion like 2-3 years ago.
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I work 9 miles from my house, both places are in southern wake and roads were dry and fine. I know it is a different story across the county. I wonder if we will have a similar situation on Wednesday morning?
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I know the 6-10 day outlook showed above normal temps for the east coast leading up to Christmas, but the GFS temperatures don't look all that warm. Looks average or slightly below some days.
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I'm shocked too. I'm near Fuquay and we had a 2-day total of 1". Nothing this morning!
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It finally turned to snow here but is too light and radar returns are diminishing. Too little too late. What a bummer.
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Looks like I may have some flakes starting to mix in with heavy sleet in my neighborhood, finally.
