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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Love those snow maps being posted but I don't like that Wake gradient! I'm in the southern tip! Fun to have stuff to track, though.
  2. PackGrad05
    12Z GFS shows a couple close calls over the next week or so... Plenty of time to reel something in.
  3. PackGrad05
    Fantasy land is fun to look at, but I'm only going to focus within 7 days. As of now, Thursday night is the only thing within 7 days worth watching, IMO.
  4. PackGrad05
    Without looking at records, I'd wager that time period is the "snowiest" for our region. Seems like MLK weekend and days before/after are always good ones for snow chances.
  5. PackGrad05
    WRAL's future cast is showing a mix or snow flurries in NC northern counties... Wouldn't take much for it to come south. Their future cast model is based on the Baron model.
  6. PackGrad05
    What do the trends look like with this?
  7. PackGrad05
    Latest HRRR (02Z) and GFS still give wake 1-2 inches worth with the deformation band. I'll take it, even if it all melts on contact.
  8. PackGrad05
    18z 3k NAM was juicier for central NC.
  9. PackGrad05
    I agree with that. They basically are waiting for more data before a WWA.
  10. PackGrad05
    That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow. I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory.
  11. PackGrad05
    18z hrrr looks better for Wake. I think we get a good burst of snow for 1-2 hours
  12. PackGrad05
    Even the GFS ensembles still try to show Wake a little love. It could shift back south a little. The NW trends seemed extreme.
  13. PackGrad05
    Still looks like a 3-4 hour period of wet snow for Wake.
  14. PackGrad05
    Still looks decent for Wake. At least something to look at.
  15. PackGrad05
    Interesting. In year's past, I've given more credit to NAM within a shorter range.
  16. PackGrad05
    The 12Z NAM (both 32km and 12km) were not impressed... Neither was the 18Z 12km.
  17. PackGrad05
    I'm intrigued about the time period after 12/23... I think we see some favorable patterns then.
  18. PackGrad05
    While the temperature isn't warm enough for my Bermuda to take off yet, I would like a little moisture to help green it up. With that said, I've absolutely loved all the time outside my family has been able to spend...especially with no humidity and sweating to worry about.
  19. PackGrad05
    The Apps/Smokies better keep their eye on things tomorrow night!
  20. PackGrad05
    Unfortunately, yesterday was a big bust. No other way to put it. That just goes to show how complicated the science is. With that said, both NWS and local mets consistently explained ways that this could end up being less of a big deal.. However, it is tricky because you want people to be prepared in case the ingredients do come together in a Level 3/4 fashion.
  21. PackGrad05
    For those who follow Greg Fishel on facebook, he pretty much nailed it. He was never completely sold on it and then quickly identified the mesolow that formed this afternoon.
  22. PackGrad05
    I'm in southern wake near Fuquay and up to 68 with a soupy dewpoint.
  23. PackGrad05
    I'm in Southern Wake and already up to 62.
  24. PackGrad05
    For central NC, it looks like the main time to watch is between 3-8PM. HRRR has consistently shown some showers/storms around 4PM, but then fires up a more severe looking cluster of cells between 6-8PM.
  25. PackGrad05
    both RAH and local Mets have said that the warm air really wouldn’t surge up here until after 12 noon if it did. So I’ll hold off on until tonight to see if things remain stable. It’s only 9:55am
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