PackGrad05

The 12Z HRRR is coming in now. Still showing possibility of flurries over central on Christmas Day. Accumulations are non-consequential, dusting if anything.

Temperatures (for NC) still look below normal to me throughout most of the next 10 days.

Remember it will take time for that dense cold air to bleed past the mountains... That's one reason why the cold chasing moisture scenario hardly ever pans out for central NC.

Yep. I do remember a similar scenario occurring 2-3 years ago and I remember Brad P. saying the same thing... then it ended up working out but it had to do more with another piece of energy interacting...

how about that last frame on the 18Z GFS? SC bullseye... plenty of time for the NW trend for us NC folks haha

The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week. Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy... Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.

Didn't y'all hit 32 a couple days ago?

Raleigh is going to get really close to breaking the record for latest first freeze. December 3 is the record... Officially, RDU only got down to 33 earlier this week. I don't see anything promising through at least November 20, unless that changes.

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall. The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active. Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.

All in all, central NC fared better than I expected. Looks like the more extreme dynamics were to the south and the timing of the day also helped tremendously.

Speaking for NC, it would be a low instability until the wee morning hours on Monday. Sunday looks to be wedged in with CAD most of the day... if that eroded a little quicker, we could destabilize more. Main threat for NC (as of now) is straight-line winds as the front moves through.

A trace I believe.

Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.

Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?

WRAL is currently forecasting light wintry precip possible, mainly east of 95. Mentioned ground temps would be too warm for any impacts. The recent model run of their future cast came in while they were telling the forecast and it shows even less precip for central NC (jumped SE again)..

I think cautious is an understatement. If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome. They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here. Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures. The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC. Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now.

Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about? I assume it is Georgia based on your tag?

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output. In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.

GFS is not on board with that system, as of 6Z 2/13/20

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 system?

Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off. Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us.

I think Raleigh can pretty much hang it up (for snow) until second half of February. First half looks like toast.

Based on the precip output, most of that in central NC is sleet/freezing rain.

Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC. I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.

I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm. It has southern Wake rain written all over it.