PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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A trace I believe.
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Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.
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Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?
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They posted that around 11AM. No big deal. We ALWAYS have to overcome dry air around here before the snow gets going. That's because our cold source is usually arctic (or near arctic) air that is very dry to start with.
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The radar will fill in. You also have to remember that snow returns are always lighter.. I switch my radarscope to precipitation depiction mode usually.
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FWIW, the new run of WRAL futurecast model is now showing 2-3 inches for most of the triangle. This is in line with the NAM. Their futurecast is usually pretty conservative so I think that's a good sign.
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The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight. This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning. A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.
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Don't trust the HRRR this far out. I only use it for simulated radar during the event.
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I wouldn't worry about SREF means at this point. Other models still look good and we're to the point to almost quit looking at those big models and focus on the radar and satellite images as the storm is coming together.
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The NAM is fine. If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts.
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Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system. Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition. Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.
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That will really help road conditions by drying out the wetness before the freeze comes in!
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They could... but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either.. I'd prefer that version.
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The 12Z HRRR shows all rain for NC outside of the mountains.
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Folks were discounting the NAM yesterday but now taking it into consideration when modeling the warm nose. I know it is typically pretty good with warm nose but this is also due to the fact it is really amping up the storm. The warm nose is directly related to how strong it amps up that low. If the NAM is overdone, then so is the warm nose. Plus, the warm nose will go away with this storm as it progresses. It will not persist the entire time.
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I agree with Allan's placements, but would lower the amounts by 1-2 inches for each zone. I would be SHOCKED if southern wake got 1-3 inches. I could see a trace to one inch of sleet/snow slush.
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In true NC fashion, we go from southern favored areas to more of a northern favored area. Southern Wake better watch out! I've seen this play out multiple times where it takes us too long to transition and never completely get a good snow falling.
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Interesting that their "bullseye" is in the northeast NC region. Probably due to temperatures and less of limiting factors.
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I'm rooting against the NAM because it is showing that warm nose creeping into Wake. 800mb warm nose would be sleet/rain for most of Wake.
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A sharp cutoff in southern wake is a sure bet with any winter weather! I wouldn't expect any different!
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RAH updated their snow maps shortly after 9 and still have wake county less than one inch in the most likely scenario.
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Yes, the high is in the same placement in all those but it is taking longer to bleed the cold air over the apps in the euro/eps.
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https://twitter.com/rtphokie/status/1229924602094198785?s=20
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The QPF of the EURO bumped up due to a closer development of the low near the coast. However, the snow is still anemic because it delays the arrival of the cold air, due to the poor placement of the high.
