PackGrad05

Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off. Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us.

I think Raleigh can pretty much hang it up (for snow) until second half of February. First half looks like toast.

Based on the precip output, most of that in central NC is sleet/freezing rain.

Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC. I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.

I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm. It has southern Wake rain written all over it.

If we get something, I don't think it will be something we track from Day 10. I think it'll pop up in the 5-6 day range and we reel it in from there. I've abandoned even looking at the Day 10 models bc they flip flop so much.

Can you provide specifics?

It's a shame there isn't a high in a good location on 2/1, 2/2.... Great low track.

Agreed. I'd rather work with too much cold/suppressed than it be warm and wish for more cold..

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.

That's me. I'm used to it by now... There are a couple more of us on here, too. My friend in northern Wake always texts me pics of his snow and I send him back pics of my rain.

That's true. I am looking at it through south wake lens. The gradient is ridiculous. Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.

Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific. Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true... Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.

Just a reminder, it only takes one. It still isn't January. I think we get lucky once or twice...even if it is 60 a couple days after.

Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house! Right on the other side of the trees! I went and looked at the damage today. Definitely tornadic looking.

The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring. We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least. Strongest winds I've seen in a long time. It knocked my power out for 5 hours. When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd). I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line. However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.

My car and home roof was destroyed in the Willow Spring hail storm back on September 1, 2017. So when that hail storm started coming this way, I was having flashbacks. Fortunately, my area only got pea sized/marble sized this time. But I saw the worst went toward the Garner/Cleveland area. That size hail for this general area twice in less than two years is pretty remarkable.

The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this?

I think I'm the only 5-mile radius area in Wake County that got hardly nothing with this system. We got about 1-2 inches of slush on Sunday that was melted by dinner. Absolutely nothing with this system Monday morning. Extremely frustrating.

The upper level low brings its own cold air, in a way. But rates will be lighter. I think the most anyone could expect is an addition 1", if that.

I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.

I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.

Apologies, I meant Raleigh. And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary. I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day. I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed. We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.

I was referring to Raleigh. Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.

important point. Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night. Lots of melting to be had. Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads. Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.