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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    I don't like that map. Shows southern wake with almost zilch! haha
  2. PackGrad05
    Look at that classic Wake County gradient on the weathernerds map. I agree with that map, but I could cut totals by at least 50% in all areas.
  3. PackGrad05
    Some flurries possible Monday morning if the deformation band pivots through.
  4. PackGrad05
    I agree. I did the same thing. For Southern Wake it could be 4-6 hours of snow/ice before changeover. I then wonder about conditions after that and refreeze/black ice potential.
  5. PackGrad05
    Another Wake county special. North of 64 looks like at least a mix. South of 64 = rain. (12Z GFS)
  6. PackGrad05
    True, but I could see some snow and then changeover to rain that washes it all away.
  7. PackGrad05
    Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses? Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out. I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.
  8. PackGrad05
    Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake. I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need. Borderline = rain.
  9. PackGrad05
    Remember that ensembles are much more reliable at this point....wait until euro ensembles before getting down in the dumps.
  10. PackGrad05
    I'm more interested in the euro ensembles than deterministic, this far out.
  11. PackGrad05
    I think that's very fair at this point. It is only Monday. Plenty of time to make adjustments to schedules if need be.
  12. PackGrad05
    Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do.
  13. PackGrad05
    For the Raleigh area, I prefer to see a suppressed look and lower totals at this time. Too amped and too far north spells warm-nose for our area. The only way to get a huge storm is to have some other dynamics play a role during the system to give a prolonged precip event. Too early to see those details. When will the players be able to be sampled? Wednesday/Thursday?
  14. PackGrad05
    Looks below normal to me for central NC through next 7-10 days.
  15. PackGrad05
    I agree with that. It won't ruin my kids' festivities.
  16. PackGrad05
    It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal. (or it seems that way)
  17. PackGrad05
    I lost power for 4 hours near Fuquay in southern Wake. We had a couple hours of strong wind gusts. What's funny is we never lost power with Florence.. But these winds were a tad stronger in bursts and from the opposite direction.
  18. PackGrad05
    What time is that image above valid at?
  19. PackGrad05
    I have a good idea why. Florence was being tracked and hyped in the news almost 10 days away from landfall. There was a LOT of build up leading to the storm and people were lined up at gas stations, groceries for water, etc... Michael popped up (seemingly overnight) and many people (including the news) didn't pay much attention to it since it was in the Gulf. There wasn't the same hype and buildup until 1-2 days ago... Plus, typically a storm traveling this far really doesn't give us much impact . This is a new scenario. (for most people) Back to the meteorology: I do think the triangle will have gusty winds similar to Florence... But I'm still not sold on the gusts advertised by high res models on the backside. I definitely think we see some strong gusts as winds shift on the backside and with frontal passage, and a couple big bursts will be possible, but I don't think it will be as widespread.
  20. PackGrad05
    Storms weaken considerably after they make landfall. However, the location and track will affect how much, including the speed. Faster speed and a track over more flat terrain will lessen the weakening for a bit.
  21. PackGrad05
    The weakening will give some folks a false sense of security while the impacts will remain largely the same... Am I correct in saying that this has little effect on inland areas (Like RDU) since the tropical storm winds still extend so far from the center?
  22. PackGrad05
    That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning. Perhaps ERC? I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours.
  23. PackGrad05
    Brad Panovich doing a facebook live. Just said that he believes it'll have an opportunity to strengthen over gulf stream tomorrow... Also the core seems to be intact which helps protect it from some shear, etc....
  24. PackGrad05
    A little dry air and shear may be affecting the storm. There is still plenty of time for it to strengthen or regain better organization (however, I hope it doesn't)
  25. PackGrad05
    The EPS solution would be great for Central NC. Anyone have an expected wind map for Central NC if the EPS verified? I'm thinking tropical storm force gusts, at best.
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