PackGrad05

A trace I believe.

Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.

Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?

WRAL is currently forecasting light wintry precip possible, mainly east of 95. Mentioned ground temps would be too warm for any impacts. The recent model run of their future cast came in while they were telling the forecast and it shows even less precip for central NC (jumped SE again)..

I think cautious is an understatement. If you read between the lines, they pretty much think it will take a miracle, especially with the limiting factors that still need to be overcome. They make it seem a lot less likely than all the other discussion on here. Based on all the recent model runs, I agree with that forecast, particularly with regards to temperatures. The low development in tandem with the high will definitely increase cold air surge into NC, but I don't think it will be enough for central NC. Eastern NC looks like the honey hole, as of now.

Can you elaborate on which region you are speaking about? I assume it is Georgia based on your tag?

I don't have access to EURO but based on GFS, temperatures look like a big factor, particularly surface temperatures based on soundings I looked at on GFS and model output. In addition, NWS RAH is forecasting a high of 46 on Thursday and 42 on Friday.

GFS is not on board with that system, as of 6Z 2/13/20

Anyone able to post what the ECMWF showed for the 2/21 system?

Right now I'd put more "stock" in the ECMWF, especially with that mid-state wake county cut off. Almost looks like a rain-to-snow transition which hardly ever works out for us.

I think Raleigh can pretty much hang it up (for snow) until second half of February. First half looks like toast.

Based on the precip output, most of that in central NC is sleet/freezing rain.

Weaker is fine for me, especially near the transition zone in central NC. I don't want a real amped storm that pumps in a lot of warm air.

I don't even like the looks of that fantasy storm. It has southern Wake rain written all over it.

If we get something, I don't think it will be something we track from Day 10. I think it'll pop up in the 5-6 day range and we reel it in from there. I've abandoned even looking at the Day 10 models bc they flip flop so much.

Can you provide specifics?

It's a shame there isn't a high in a good location on 2/1, 2/2.... Great low track.

Agreed. I'd rather work with too much cold/suppressed than it be warm and wish for more cold..

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.

That's me. I'm used to it by now... There are a couple more of us on here, too. My friend in northern Wake always texts me pics of his snow and I send him back pics of my rain.

That's true. I am looking at it through south wake lens. The gradient is ridiculous. Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.

Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific. Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true... Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.

Just a reminder, it only takes one. It still isn't January. I think we get lucky once or twice...even if it is 60 a couple days after.

Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house! Right on the other side of the trees! I went and looked at the damage today. Definitely tornadic looking.

The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring. We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least. Strongest winds I've seen in a long time. It knocked my power out for 5 hours. When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd). I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line. However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.