PackGrad05

Meanwhile, I'm interested in seeing what the NAM shows. It will begin coming into range today. Temperature wise, showing a weak CAD for Tuesday that could end up keeping those really warm temps away.

I still think it's a little premature to rule Wake County out.. all the globals showed *something* for Wake except GFS pretty much... The next two runs will be key.

Is that prediction based on the 6Z suite or do you see updated info somewhere?

Trends not looking great.. I blame La Nina for not getting any major cold air pushes... Our cold air surges after a storm with the northerly flow, and then recovers back up to seasonal, which just isn't getting it done... We need a system like this to move through and set the stage and then another one to take a favorable track right on its heels. We need arctic cold already in place or temperatures/dew points cold enough for the storm to generate its own cold air with wet bulb.. Neither looks possible (for now) with this system.

Temperature are the limiting factor here... Antecedent temperatures do not look great at all. We just haven't had a strong cold push all season. *IF* this pans out for central NC, it'll be another case of flake watching with marginal temps and mostly rain.

Cue up the ground temperatures comments! But this bodes well in my book. We always have a big southerly warm surge prior to a winter storm it seems.

We are still in the timeframe where models are doing big swings back and forth. Haven't seen any consolidation trends yet.

Cold air just doesn't get here in time for folks in southern Wake (which is always a huge issue)...

Still a long way out, but southern Wake already on the edge.....we love to live dangerously.

Definitely something to watch but still a little far out.. If the signal is still there by Sunday/Monday, I'll start paying more attention. Better than nothing!

That euro map makes it look like 90% of the winter storms in NC... Wake already on the southeast edge....and the NW trend has a ways to go.

That's one way to look at it... but really it is only "half" of prime climo time. The average snowfall for RDU for February/March is only slightly lower than the average snowfall for December/January... I'll start getting worried if we haven't seen anything (observation, not models), by Valentine's.

The 28/29 GFS fantasy storm would be nice.

1/19 is still a period of time to watch.. we just need a high to the north to supply some cold air.

I don't consider a season very active by the number of "major storms" or whether or not they make landfall. The formation of a large number of storms is enough to make it active. Their ultimate strength and impact could be the result of poorly timed shear, dry air, or a trough that kicks it out to sea as a result of just bad timing.

Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.

Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?

Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house! Right on the other side of the trees! I went and looked at the damage today. Definitely tornadic looking.

The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring. We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least. Strongest winds I've seen in a long time. It knocked my power out for 5 hours. When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd). I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line. However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.

My car and home roof was destroyed in the Willow Spring hail storm back on September 1, 2017. So when that hail storm started coming this way, I was having flashbacks. Fortunately, my area only got pea sized/marble sized this time. But I saw the worst went toward the Garner/Cleveland area. That size hail for this general area twice in less than two years is pretty remarkable.

The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this?

I think I'm the only 5-mile radius area in Wake County that got hardly nothing with this system. We got about 1-2 inches of slush on Sunday that was melted by dinner. Absolutely nothing with this system Monday morning. Extremely frustrating.

The upper level low brings its own cold air, in a way. But rates will be lighter. I think the most anyone could expect is an addition 1", if that.

I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.

I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.