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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    The 3K NAM doesn't show anything severe over central NC before 8PM. (that's when it currently ends). At 8PM, a line of storms is popping over the mountains GFS much quicker... Timing still up in the air.
  2. PackGrad05
    NAM shows a good amount of 0-3km helicity over NC on Thursday... Sig Tor Parameter around 1-2. . Limiting factor appears to be instability... progression of warm front and time of day will play big.
  3. PackGrad05
    Which NAM product are you looking at?
  4. PackGrad05
    More fantasy snow on 6Z GFS for March 29.
  5. PackGrad05
    This has actually been one of the "coldest overall" winters I can remember in recent years. Yes, we haven't had brutally cold arctic temperatures, but we also haven't had anything over 70 since Dec. 13 (until today for RDU). It has consistently been where it is supposed to be, or a little lower at times.
  6. PackGrad05
    C all day easy.
  7. PackGrad05
    I'm close to the southern edge again. I need this to suppress more.
  8. PackGrad05
    Yep. And they mentioned my thinking. Temperatures on the southern edge will teeter between 32-33 all night....risks of some slick spots in the morning will remain, particularly for northern wake.
  9. PackGrad05
    There is more precipitation coming. I'm not talking about residual moisture from today.
  10. PackGrad05
    I've been saying this all morning. The advisory for Wake always went until 7AM friday unless it is shortened... Same goes for rest.
  11. PackGrad05
    Not a lot of talk about tonight when high res models show freezing rain returning, particularly north of 85.
  12. PackGrad05
    We've had plenty of wind here in Wake. Gusty for sure this morning.
  13. PackGrad05
    I'm still watching high res models for temps for Wake overnight tonight. Could have another brief period of frozen stuff.
  14. PackGrad05
    I can confirm that was a large outage near WTCC on 401 north of Fuquay. I have friends who live over there.
  15. PackGrad05
    The 12Z HRRR shows overnight temps getting down to 33 in Wake with lingering precip. I read earlier in this thread that HRRR overestimates temperatures.. So based on that, should we expect temps to dip down to freezing again tonight?
  16. PackGrad05
    So the next question is does anyone drop below freezing Thursday night/Friday morning?
  17. PackGrad05
    Getting a nice glaze over the last hour or so down here in Willow Spring, southern Wake.
  18. PackGrad05
    They have already scaled back. This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems. However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner. I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!
  19. PackGrad05
    Exactly... Look at real data, upstream and downstream, at this point vs. every model run. Models are underestimating that cold supply to the north. Going over snow covered cold ground.
  20. PackGrad05
    18Z HRRR shows a good amount less on the southern/eastern edge vs. the 12Z. WRAL map has wake split between glaze to .10" and .10" to .25" in northern Wake. "A light glaze is possible, especially on elevated surfaces. Some slick bridges and sidewalks are possible"
  21. PackGrad05
    Brad P tweeted out that model output is garbage at this point. Gotta look upstream where the cold air is coming from. Real observations.
  22. PackGrad05
    High elevation. The cold dense air is sinking past you.
  23. PackGrad05
    The air outside just feels different than it did before the last 2 systems. It is a different kind of cold, feels really dry as well.
  24. PackGrad05
    Latest WPC guidance shows roughly 20 - 70% chance of .10" across Wake from southeast to northwest. Slightly lower for .25"
  25. PackGrad05
    So do we expect NWS to scale back their advisories/watches based on latest model output or let it ride?
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