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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    I disagree with the the February hate. Over the past 30 years, RDU has averaged 2.7" of snow per January. If you take out the 1999-2000 outlier (25"), the average is much lower. Over the same 30 years, RDU has averaged 1.4" of snow per February. Not all that different in the grand scheme of things. Once we get to March, I agree that we are toast.
  2. PackGrad05
    Quiet around here. Big arctic push into the US looks likely in next 10 days... Not sure it ever really penetrates this far to the southeast though.
  3. PackGrad05
    QPF in the southeast is off the charts over the next 10 days. Unfortunately, it isn't cold enough. Average or slightly below average temperatures (except for Tuesday 7/9), but that doesn't cut it for snow.
  4. PackGrad05
    The latest EURO, GFS, and their ensembles restrict this to the mountains outside of some novelty flakes in the foothills. Really good agreement between all of them.
  5. PackGrad05
    Meanwhile both EPS and GEFS have backed off probabilities. Both showing less than 15% chance of 1" of snow for central NC. ECMWF control run shows zilch.
  6. PackGrad05
    Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days. When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance.
  7. PackGrad05
    Current EPS shows 20% chance of at least 1" of snow for central NC over next 15 days.
  8. PackGrad05
    The January 1-5 timeframe is definitely worth watching. GFS has been on and off with a system for NC. EPS has some members showing something, and GEFS is starting to pick up on it also.
  9. PackGrad05
    Need a stronger high to move that further to central NC.
  10. PackGrad05
    HRRR wants to pop some convective cells after dark...primarily east of 95 but Wake and central NC should keep an eye on it also.
  11. PackGrad05
    GFS has been east of other guidance for a few runs now.
  12. PackGrad05
    Latest run of what?
  13. PackGrad05
    Central NC would be rain. The track is too far inland. Western NC would be sitting pretty. Latest HRRR shows 2-3" widespread for central NC. Also shows the deformation band pivoting through Monday morning. Winds have died down which is a good thing.
  14. PackGrad05
    By "well inland", do you mean west of 95? The latest Euro and GFS still show a good dose of rain for central NC (2-3 inches) and gusty winds.
  15. PackGrad05
    Sustained cold is nice, but it really only takes a good shot of cold air to time up right with some moisture. That's about as good as you can ask for around here. That anomaly map isn't that dire. 4-6 degrees above average this time of year is highs in mid-to-upper 50s. With lows in 30s and 40s at night that's fine by me. Far from a torch.
  16. PackGrad05
    Besides this saturday/sunday, the next 10-15 days look below normal. We always focus on the above normal temps but never give the below normal temps much attention....unless there is something frozen with them.
  17. PackGrad05
    A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period... snow perhaps.
  18. PackGrad05
    What's ironic is that it will have more of an impact that then remnants of the one a few weeks ago. The difference it that it doesn't come with all the "hype" that the other one did.
  19. PackGrad05
    The 18Z 3K NAM has gusts of 50-60 over central NC Saturday morning.
  20. PackGrad05
    Way more spread than 00Z members. Lots of uncertainty.
  21. PackGrad05
    12Z EPS members
  22. PackGrad05
    High res NAM and HRRR are still showing a steady rain from this afternoon all the way to mid-morning. I definitely think the big story will be ponding/localized flooding. Morning commute could be messy. Scattered power outages as always. Big gradient possible across Wake (as always).
  23. PackGrad05
    Looking at impacts for NC, particularly central NC. Getting in range of high-res models. NAM 3K is bullish on some heavy rain bands setting up, particularly Thursday morning thru mid-day. Could get pretty gusty as well during those bands. Most of central NC in flood watch now.
  24. PackGrad05
    6Z GEFS and EPS are almost identical and tightly packed.
  25. PackGrad05
    With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north.
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