PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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The euro AI is not handling the system well upstream. It did the same with the last system. Upstream perturbations resulted in downstream errors. This is common with AI models. .
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This is a time when I love being in the southeast corner of wake. EPS looked good .
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The EPS showed an inch of snow for central NC on the 1/21-1/22 system and then another inch from a system 1/24-1/26
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The euro ensembles are on board .
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Gfs ensembles and euro ensembles are very similar .
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Brad P said on X that there has not been a NW trend. He says the low track and vorticity has not moved NW, only the snow maps.
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Euro and its ensembles continue to improve... and with the super cold temps, that stuff will stick instantly and stick around a while.
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All models are wrong. Some are useful. Still too much spread, especially with ECMWF and EPS being the most suppressed at this time.
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Central NC (and portions of Charlotte metro area) really have to thread the needle with winter storms... If it is too warm, then frozen stays to NW. Too cold and frozen goes to SE. That's why a lot of folks here will say that you want to be right on the edge of the snow/rain line to get the most.
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Euro ensembles for central NC are low. Roughly 25% chance of 1" of snow. It has shown that over the last 2 major runs (00Z and 12Z). Hard to go against that right now and we need to see it start shifting in the next 24-48 hours.
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Yes the GFS was a very slight NW movement from previous run
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Trend has definitely been suppression and coastal system. This seems to be what the TV mets are leaning toward as well. Really good agreement on all the models as well. Still time for adjustments but we are starting to narrow down on primary threats.
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The one thing I keep remembering is that these super cold air masses are usually overdone on models for our area... Which would be great in our case and end up putting the system right where we want it.
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Trends are suppression and drier. Huffman mentions chances are decreasing in his latest post. I will say that local mets (WRAL) even cautioned about this earlier this week.
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I understand that, but the arctic push is coming from too far west... It would be "better" for us to be to our north/northeast.
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The cold is holding back because the high is not in an ideal placement for east coast. It is too far west and that cold dense air has a hard time bleeding past the Apps.
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I agree that NW trend is possible, but we are dealing with an anomalously cold air mass so suppression is absolutely on the table. It may be a case where it is just too plain cold. That’s what the euro op is showing. With that said, the euro op was wrong by a couple inches for central NC during the last system. The ensembles were much more on point. .
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May have been mentioned already, but the high is not in a great placement, at least on the GFS. Having a high centered over the western US is not good for us. That super cold dense air has a hard time bleeding over the Apps... We want the strong high to be to our N/NE to funnel the cold stuff east of the Apps.
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The storm can only cut so much with that much high pressure .
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I'd feel better if that EURO maximum was about 75 miles southeast haha
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whatever happens, one thing we have going for us is the snowpack to the north.... will definitely help with a cold air source, especially in marginal events.
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I think RAH has a better handle on arrival. The HRRR and NAM are in line with their thinking. It’ll take a while to saturate the layer with the initial light returns. . -
I’m forecasting one inch or less for wake. Dusting for southern. Just don’t see it being big snow. More ice. Especially southern wake. .
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Wake is a big county geographically but also situated in a spot meteorologically that makes it the transition. It is the right distance from the coast with these systems .
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Classic storm with a tight gradient over wake. Rdu could be a lot different than fuquay/garner. .
