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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Euro ensembles are what matters. Waiting on those.
  2. PackGrad05
    Remember this is the same time period that many models lost the storm last week only to trend back with better data as the date drew near.
  3. PackGrad05
    EURO has been most consistent with this event. Interested to see what 12Z ensembles show. Other guidance appears to be trending that way.
  4. PackGrad05
    Still plenty of time. Nothing has really changed over the past 2-3 days if you look at the big picture. Still looks like a rain/snow event with light amounts possible over central NC.
  5. PackGrad05
    Euro has been most consistent so far. Less fluctuations.
  6. PackGrad05
    Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested. https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/
  7. PackGrad05
    Latest from local station. I think they have just resorted to posting EURO ensemble probabilities and just update it every 6 hours.
  8. PackGrad05
    The latest update from WRAL. Posting European ensembles again. https://twitter.com/mazewx66/status/1486087212534050817?s=21
  9. PackGrad05
    Euro ensembles will be a better gauge.
  10. PackGrad05
    From Mike Maze: Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.
  11. PackGrad05
    Starts as rain and then changes to snow as it gets cranking.
  12. PackGrad05
    Yes, they did say that. It was on their blogs. I haven't verified the accuracy of the statement though. As for next weekend, the signal is there, but cold air looks limited for now.
  13. PackGrad05
    the local mets said that the EURO was most consistent with this weekend's storm from day one..
  14. PackGrad05
    The roads are getting nasty out there. WRAL just had a crew on I-95 in Johnston County and it was horrible.
  15. PackGrad05
    The forecast looks pretty spot on to me so far. There are still several hours at least of snow to go and we already have about an inch in southern Wake. Most predictions I saw for this area were in the 1-3" range.
  16. PackGrad05
    Remember when a lot of folks were freaking out about that run of the NAM that shows the storm disappear? This should be a lesson to never freak out over one or two bad model runs.
  17. PackGrad05
    The main banding is definitely setting up along I-95 area.
  18. PackGrad05
    I'm also watching the temperatures. Here in southern Wake I'm up to 30.4. Most of the news stations were saying we'd be in the upper 20s all day.
  19. PackGrad05
    12Z Nam 3K thermals are very close to sleet at onset for Wake. I do think we see a little sleet to start and then enough cool down to transition to snow. HRRR thermals are a little cooler at mid levels.
  20. PackGrad05
    I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake. Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield. I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2". Still a great snow!
  21. PackGrad05
    No snow in Southern Wake (willow springs) this morning. I did see some falling around midnight but nothing accumulated. Hoping that being in the southeast part of the county pays off for once tonight!
  22. PackGrad05
    A lull for most of the day was expected across central NC. The low doesn't really intensify until later this afternoon toward evening..
  23. PackGrad05
    I'm not sold on anything that noticeable for Wake with tonight's first round. Cold chasing moisture and it looks like limited moisture by the time temperatures get low enough for anything appreciable. As for the main round tomorrow, it's going to be really close with how far west the main precipitation gets... It is going to be painful for someone... I'm going 1-3" across Wake.
  24. PackGrad05
    What time is the first and second round?
  25. PackGrad05
    Agreed. This is one of the rare times when Kuchera numbers are higher than the 10:1 numbers. SREF plumes for Raleigh are also higher than this point yesterday. I'm glad to be south of Raleigh this time.
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