UpStateCAD

Wait for the NW trend. It will happen. Aleays does.

Buckeye. I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew. Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands. It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. This area is extremely low. Look at the tidal flood maps. The entire area is under water with a category 3. Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area. Over 3000 killed. Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue.

one thing I remember DT saying when he used to post here was that he would look at a given storm and start asking himself what could go wrong that would prevent said storm from producing......probably a good tact to adopt.

Doc.....where are you in Greenville? I am approx. 1 mile north of downtown on N Main ......almost to Rutherford Rd.......still all rain here. 36 degrees.

our boy Chris Justice just lowered I-85 and south to 1 to 2 inches

I don't know Oconee.....if you look at a wider view of the radar. Looks like we are in a dry slot train and may be for a bit. The hole is not filling in as the precip north and south of us just keeps motoring past us.

yep......sucks to be just N of Greenville, SC.

Good call.....I think in the end, most systems do end up a blend of the various models. Each models bias have to be factored in as well as any obvious errors in how they are handling the data. However it is somewhat surprising that at this late hour the GFS and Euro are so far apart.

sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb. End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing. I think this particular area has a huge bust potential.

are we starting to get to the point we want the NW trend to stop on the GFS?

Good point Delta......this screws the upstate of SC almost every winter storm above a nuisance level coming out of the gulf

from Charleston's latest forecast discussion (6:59 pm)...... Matthew approaches the area from the south later today and tonight. There will be at least moderate coastal flooding with the midday high tide, but it`s the high tide around 12-2 am tonight that`s the most concerning when significant coastal flooding will likely occur. Tide levels are forecast to approach or even surpass those during October of 2015, meaning levels could exceed 8.0 ft MLLW at Charleston and more than 11.0 ft MLLW at Ft. Pulaski. This would be the second highest crest on record for Ft. Pulaski, exceeded only by Hurricane David which produced a 12.21 foot crest in 1979. It would also be in the top 5 or 10 crests on record for Charleston. These levels will be accompanied by moderate or heavy rains, creating an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas and in downtown Charleston.

savannah is running 5.5 ft higher