UpStateCAD

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  1. Buckeye. I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew. Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands. It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. This area is extremely low. Look at the tidal flood maps. The entire area is under water with a category 3. Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area. Over 3000 killed. Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue.
  2. one thing I remember DT saying when he used to post here was that he would look at a given storm and start asking himself what could go wrong that would prevent said storm from producing......probably a good tact to adopt.
  3. Doc.....where are you in Greenville? I am approx. 1 mile north of downtown on N Main ......almost to Rutherford Rd.......still all rain here. 36 degrees.
  4. our boy Chris Justice just lowered I-85 and south to 1 to 2 inches
  5. I don't know Oconee.....if you look at a wider view of the radar. Looks like we are in a dry slot train and may be for a bit. The hole is not filling in as the precip north and south of us just keeps motoring past us.
  6. yep......sucks to be just N of Greenville, SC.
  7. Good call.....I think in the end, most systems do end up a blend of the various models. Each models bias have to be factored in as well as any obvious errors in how they are handling the data. However it is somewhat surprising that at this late hour the GFS and Euro are so far apart.
  8. sure seems like in the UpState/GSP area we are using a lot of precip to wet-bulb. End up using over half of the precip to bring 2M temps below freezing. I think this particular area has a huge bust potential.
  9. are we starting to get to the point we want the NW trend to stop on the GFS?
  10. Good point Delta......this screws the upstate of SC almost every winter storm above a nuisance level coming out of the gulf
  11. from Charleston's latest forecast discussion (6:59 pm)...... Matthew approaches the area from the south later today and tonight. There will be at least moderate coastal flooding with the midday high tide, but it`s the high tide around 12-2 am tonight that`s the most concerning when significant coastal flooding will likely occur. Tide levels are forecast to approach or even surpass those during October of 2015, meaning levels could exceed 8.0 ft MLLW at Charleston and more than 11.0 ft MLLW at Ft. Pulaski. This would be the second highest crest on record for Ft. Pulaski, exceeded only by Hurricane David which produced a 12.21 foot crest in 1979. It would also be in the top 5 or 10 crests on record for Charleston. These levels will be accompanied by moderate or heavy rains, creating an extremely dangerous situation for coastal areas and in downtown Charleston.
  12. savannah is running 5.5 ft higher
  13. one thing to note with the NOAA storm surge graphics.....there is a disclaimer in small print at the bottom of the graphic that state there is only a 1 in 10 chance that the levels shown will be exceeded......so I believe the intent of these values is to convey the worse case scenario
  14. agree......but I own property down there......believe me, there will be a lot of folks who think they can ride this out. To me the amount of surge that area will receive will be tough to forecast properly and it will probably come late in the game. There could be a number of people caught off guard and be in harms way if things unfold wrong. Those islands were under 10 feet of water in that storm.....even today who would expect that from a category 3 storm?
  15. yikes......killed 1000's in the Beaufort area......and was only a Cat 3
  16. Nice site for tracking the latest info regarding the tropics http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
  17. Far more times than I care to recall. I've been waiting for a 1988 redux for a long long time.
  18. yeah I think the heavy qpf will overwhelm the remaining low level cold, but she's been a heck of a wedge. Like some folks said yesterday. Each one is a little different and we learn something from everyone of them.
  19. surprised Lookout has not weighed in. Thought he'd be all over this.
  20. EDIT: Pivotal Weather graphics are much tamer than Stormvista's. So if those are correct, a much more benign situation than I was alluding to below. "IF" if we were still watching global models for this little event, the 18z NAM would scare me to death for the upstate. Both the NAM and Hires NAM initial temperatures are too high by 4 degrees. If one were to compensate for this by just looking at the precip that falls while the temp is 33 F and below......well.....Not Good. Disclaimer.....this is based solely on the Stormvista graphics, they were somewhat more omnibus than the actual data for the 12z. Hopefully that is the case this run as well.
  21. 10:29 EST at KGSP 2M Temp was 25 F, TD was 24 F with 96% Humidity. Which model called this correctly? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?