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Everything posted by CaryWx

  1. Nice for most of NC to score this winter...finally Would have been great for some colder temps in the Triangle. We'd had a slog if so. Easily got plenty from the sky but BL temps killed us today.
  2. Per RAL just now will end around midnight in Wake and be at 31 by 9-10pm so that's good
  3. We won't get below freezing until snow is over per Maze on RAL
  4. Here's an observation. WRAL reports we are at 33 but not going lower than 33 before midnight (if their website is to be believed) Thought we had some CAA coming in.
  5. Surface temps really crashing in the Triangle now
  6. Nobody has changed projected totals attm
  7. How believable is the HRRR? Seems to be trending better for central-eastern NC
  8. Thanks I realized I misread #%% mobile phone.
  9. Dewpoints crashing in the Triangle? Would have thought influx of moisture would bring them up. We changeover to -sn more quickly then?
  10. With 41/29 the dewpoint will likely come up above freezing as the surface temp slowly drops. My guess is they meet around 37 and the surface temp drags it back down troughout the day/evening
  11. Bull, WRAL is forecasting a changeover between 5-7pm for Triangle. Does that square with what we’re seeing here? From what I’m reading it would be much sooner
  12. Don't believe it is as bad on the short range models and this is really not ideal range for GFS is it?
  13. Definitely a drought zone in west-central NC on many of those panels
  14. Looks to me like the NWS laid out their reasoning why what we have been seeing modeled (and discussing these last few days) is not all that accurate in TRUE forecasting on this event for the following reasons: (1.) Persistent above freezing surface temperatures that will help temper/melt the majority of the snowfall. The exception to the rule may be areas closer to the VA/NC border, however, these are the areas that will likely see far less QPF throughout the event (2.) 10:1 snow to liquid ratios are not likely in an event like this, expect closer to 3:1 at precipitation changeover onset, 5:1 toward the middle of the event, and perhaps ending in vicinity of 10:1 (3.) While the CAA process will be key in the original changeover, it will also become the ultimate limiting factor through the frozen ptype portion of the event. This will work to greatly reduce QPF from northwest to southeast in general. Oh yeah, they also mention a "cold initialized NAM"
  15. Regardless warm nose or not that's a sharp cut in southern Wake co. Either a lot of sleet or rain one. Hope it doesn't change much in next 36hrs.
  16. Thanks Grit. Looks like the broadcast mets are sticking with the globals. Guessing in another 24hrs (inside 60hrs) the NAM would suggest a better handle vs the globals maybe?
  17. Is the NAM an outlier here folks? Also, does it tend to overdo the precip?
  18. Agreed and will be interesting to see if the count tics up in next couple of runs. Hopefully not down that’s for sure
  19. Is that an LP developing offshore as it exits the region though or is it a system moving through?
  20. More validation in the form of continuity. A positive TREND Constructively, can you lose the big pic in your signature by any chance? It really hassles with the thread view?
  21. Good step for the euro but be nice to also see the gfs come on board and euro sustain this in the 0z