Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

How did you get that lol

From their winter weather page. Just select it, click copy, and paste it in lol

[BoulderWX]

29 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Same.  Very aggressive.  Especially SNJ.  Again, they know what they are doing.

Yeah I’m confused. They have 12-16 for me.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I wonder if they expect a south tick given the highest amounts are in the southern zones?  NVM I realize this is only through 7 PM Sunday.

They generally don't like to make big changes shift to shift to avoid a windshield wiper effect. Heavier snow to the south reflects the model consensus from a day or two ago. If the further north solutions persist, future maps will gradually reflect that.

[kat5hurricane]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

That's very bullish. It seems like Mt. Holly and Upton are going more aggressive in the past decade or so compared to their usual conservative nature. It's possible I suppose but 13-14+ areawide seems like a longshot IMO

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

This should appease the masses.

Bullish for southern sections but definitely possible.

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

From their winter weather page. Just select it, click copy, and paste it in lol

Mine shows the other amount

[donsutherland1]

One possible difference of note is that NWS Upton referred to NBM v.5.0 (this is the parallel version that is being tested and will be implemented during the spring) while NWS Mount Holly referenced DESI. DESI uses v4.2. The experimental version has more conservative snow-liquid ratios. 

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

From their winter weather page. Just select it, click copy, and paste it in lol

It updated looked like but not on the other section. 

[cleetussnow]

14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Uptons map is only through 7 PM Sunday. I'm not really sure why they would put out a map to that point in time when there may be several hours of accumulating snow still to go in many areas.

Its before the good stuff hits even.

[wthrmn654]

As strong high pressure retreats to the NE late Sat night into
Sunday, an expansive winter storm will impact the area from then
into Mon. Primary low pressure moving into the TN valley on Sunday
should dissipate while a secondary low forms near Cape Hatteras and
the VA capes, and then moves to a position just inside the 40N/70W
benchmark. Snow should begin in the NYC metro area after midnight
Sat night and spread NE to the rest of the CWA by daybreak, with
some accumulation of 1-2 inches possible by daybreak for the NYC
metro area. Heavy snow is then likely daytime Sunday into Sunday
evening via strong front-end H7-8 frontogenetic and thermal forcing
aided by an anticyclonic upper jet to the north. Given the cold air
mass in place, snow ratios look to be on the high side (15:1) at the
onset, and then settle down a little closer to 12:1 as heavier
precip arrives and the low to mid levels slowly warm.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could intrude aloft to force a brief mix with sleet
and/or freezing rain Sunday night, especially for NYC and Long
Island. Have only mentioned a slight chance of this occurring, and
at any rate the damage will have been done well before then as far
as meeting 6+ inch snowfall amounts.

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches.
Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized
accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow
ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a
foot.

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way?  I don't know, I would think they would will the public's confidence by going down more so than going up.  I won't beat it to death.  

Yeah start conservative and adjust later on

[EastonSN+]

On 1/21/2026 at 10:04 AM, forkyfork said:

the high is close to being perfect. i am not worried

Hey Forky wanted to check in and see if any changes in your opinion.

[oceanctyguy]

18 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

That's very bullish. It seems like the Mt. Holly and Upton are going more aggressive in the past decade or so compared to their usual conservative nature. It's possible I suppose but 13-14+ areawide seems like a longshot IMO

 

Yeah, not buying some of the highest totals along the Jersey shore. I'm about 15 mins north of Toms River, I'm counting on mostly sleet if not pure rain after 5-7 inches. They're now casting this. Guarentee each succeeding update will show less along the shore. 

[Wxbear25]

I wonder how well sampled the northern energy is as well, that’s another important part of this equation

between the ULL off the coast of CA, the ULL over southeastern Canada, energy south of Alaska and energy currently over Russia that dives into the trough, there are a lot of players on the field

[wthrmn654]

Just saw latest nbm totals have gone up a few inches,  they see a  slightly cooler storm

 

Matches there forecast map. Very well

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

How did you get that lol

https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

[SnoSki14]

Mt. Holly and Co are betting on high ratios to start for higher totals. If ratios do hit 15:1 then maybe. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

Yeah i know. the map was still showing the old total map. Thought he was on the NWS slack page to

[winterwarlock]

13 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way?  I don't know, I would think they would lose the public's confidence by going down more so than going up.  I won't beat it to death.  

The masses are now expecting the big hyped 12-16 inch event if that fails to happen they will just shake their head at the forecasters

[sussexcountyobs]

 From EPAWA text alert:   SE Sussex: Winter storm Saturday night thru early Monday. Snow of at least 12 inches, then mixing with sleet; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday.NW Sussex:  Winter storm Sat night thru early Monday. Snow at least 16 inches and best chance to remain all snow; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday

[eduggs]

Just saw the 15z SREF mean 500mb flattened a bit compared to 9z... just probing for good news. They were super amped to start but any shift in a better direction is welcomed.

[wthrmn654]

My sister near Nashville is going get F up big time with ice

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

The masses are now expecting the big hyped 12-16 inch event if that fails to happen they will just shake their head at the forecasters

the masses think 6 inches are a disaster. 

[TJW014]

I doubt down here even reaches warning criteria 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I doubt down here even reaches warning criteria 

You will

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

The masses are now expecting the big hyped 12-16 inch event if that fails to happen they will just shake their head at the forecasters

Most people think 2 feet is coming because social media and Facebook weather people have been hyping it nonstop. Official forecasts don't mean much anymore

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I doubt down here even reaches warning criteria 

You’re near Tom’s River right? You’ll get the initial overrunning snow burst the rest of us get so you should do well too. 

[Noteaster101]

29 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

From their winter weather page. Just select it, click copy, and paste it in lol

Yes, but how do you get that, what link do you click on to see the map?

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam rolling 

[oceanctyguy]

10 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I doubt down here even reaches warning criteria 

Agreed. I'm on the Brick/Lakewood border. 14" not happening.