Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[nightknights]

Until the storm is in the middle of the country you are throwing darts for outcomes.   As of the morning it was between Hawaii & CA

[Joe4alb]

CMC shows primary also weaker.

[NEG NAO]

it amazes me how folks are trying to determine the finer details of this storm such as where the mix line will end up and then give total snowfall and ice amounts when the storm doesn't even begin till Sunday morning . FYI none of us have no idea..

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Correct, its about trends. The north ticks have stopped for now. I would count on some sleet in the NYC metro areas and SW/S/SE. But rain is also off the table.

I always thought rain was pretty much off the table in this event except maybe the Jersey shore and the twin forks. The 0Z CMC did bring a bit of rain into far eastern LI but that also crashed further SE this run.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

CMC shows primary also weaker.

great point it's southeast and primary weaker kinda what the Goofus is implying! if we can get that primary transfer another 30-40 miles southeast we are golden this could stay all snow for nyc and north 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

It has better evolution and track for the secondary.  Kind of on its own right now with that solution.

Right that's how we know it's going to still make adjustments

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

warmest panel

Just a reminder that 850mb is not the warmest layer. The warmest NAM layer (in between 850mb and 700mb) is several degrees C warmer than 850mb.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

it amazes me how folks are trying to determine the finer details of this storm such as where the mix line will end up and then give total snowfall and ice amounts when the storm doesn't even begin till Sunday morning . FYI none of us have no idea..

The euros been damn consistent for the past 5 runs

[North and West]

There’s like a 60 knot jet coming from the Gulf. There will definitely be a warm mid level layer and sleet in a wide area. It’s coming into a big high pressure area which causes the huge area of snow out ahead but it eventually becomes too much of a good thing. But sleet in the end is a plus if it freezes into the snow and turns it into concrete. This stuff won’t be going anywhere until we get a major torch. 

have we considered the sun angle


.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Until the storm is in the middle of the country you are throwing darts for outcomes.   As of the morning it was between Hawaii & CA

[kat5hurricane]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

It has better evolution and track for the secondary.  Kind of on its own right now with that solution.

When the GFS is on its own I'd just about discount it. It will likely fall in line with other guidance at the last minute like it usually does

[OrangeCTWX]

Ya technically the CMC is a slight improvement from a low/temp perspective. Fingers crossed this is the most northern model and things maybe even shift south a slight bit.

[VlinderF]

Greetings! During this period of model-hugging and pointless arguing, I thought I'd introduce myself. I'm a looongtime lurker, going back to the days of Bill Evans's WABC board, when metsfan/snow88/MJO was just a young whippersnapper working at CVS. Lurked on Eastern and the NYC Metro Weather forums for a long time too, but mostly here now.

As one of the rare folks in this forum who actually lives near Central Park, I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring. Hoping for some good snow soon, as it's been...a while around here. Also thought this forum could benefit from someone who can actually vouch for the measurements in CPK, which, honestly...usually sound about right to me. This last Sunday, while the Park reported 0.4 in the morning (on grass that had a little from the day before), in the surrounding neighborhood we got ZERO/NADA/white rain until the evening round, when we picked up about an inch, and only then on grass/cars/etc. It really is different in Manhattan in those borderline-ass storms. But for this weekend, even 6 inches of solid snow and a sleet-fest on top would be the most exciting winter weather around here since about 2021. Here's hoping.

[MANDA]

All guidance has been consistent for a few days now on .9 to 1.2" of QPF.  A few ticks up / down at times but in general have been locked in on around 1" of liquid.  

[eduggs]

Should be interesting model runs later today and especially tonight. We are riding the edge between a significant event and something historic. A small shift either way from this spot will make a huge difference in the feel and impact of the event.

[Franklin0529]

Seems like a the trend of the day is a weaker primary. If that continues we will stay all snow 

[sussexcountyobs]

My local forecast actually increased amounts from what they had this morning. 12-18" is a good bet as of right now.

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

warmest panel

There can be sneaky warm layers other than just at 850. 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it amazes me how folks are trying to determine the finer details of this storm such as where the mix line will end up and then give total snowfall and ice amounts when the storm doesn't even begin till Sunday morning . FYI none of us have no idea..

So all of us have some idea?

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Should be interesting model runs later today and especially tonight. We are riding the edge between a significant event and something historic. A small shift either way from this spot will make a huge difference in the feel and impact of the event.

how do we get something historic?  Seems like an inch of QPF so even best case 15 inches if all snow

[Joe4alb]

hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification. 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

So all of us have some idea?

Nexactly!

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

how do we get something historic?  Seems like an inch of QPF so even best case 15 inches if all snow

Agree I'm seeing the range of possibilities maybe being 6-18 inches in this storm. The stakes aren't that high, It's not a nothing or 2 feet scenario here like if we were truly on a rain/snow line or there was a monster with an OTS threat.

[MANDA]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification. 

Read this morning the UKIE got an upgrade yesterday and in terms of skill scores it is 2nd. to EURO.

[Joe4alb]

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Joe4alb said:

hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification. 

Ukie was already pretty damn good

[Winterweatherlover]

UKIE is mainly snow but has an odd random dry slot over the city at 7 PM.

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The euros been damn consistent for the past 5 runs

euro was also consistent with last weekends system going out to sea

[Wxbear25]

The surface low isn’t the issue here all, it’s the mid-level features. That goes into Buffalo, you toast the mid-levels at least at the coast

you could argue a weaker surface low is indicative of less dynamic forcing, but if you want to see whether you’re going to stay snow, you need to watch that 850 mb low

[Winterweatherlover]

13 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Until the storm is in the middle of the country you are throwing darts for outcomes.   As of the morning it was between Hawaii & CA

It's 3 days out, not 5-6, we have some sense of what is going to happen at this point, just not the fine details.