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Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27


TriPol
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This is the concern right here. The Delmarva, SNJ, CVA up to DCA were progged for 12+ for days (still might get it). But the NAM warms the mid-levels so fast that the duration of snow is too short lived for major (6+) accumulations. If this keeps trending in the same direction, we are at risk for a similar fate. It has happened many times in the past and often in hindsight people say it was obvious with a trof axis so far west. Fortunately the NAM is also sometimes too amped at this range. But it should not be completely dismissed.1198808269_2026-01-22at10-45-14ModelsNAMPivotalWeather.thumb.jpg.4c15dc38148f750057409e8fd9281c2e.jpg

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The front end thump is solid. There's a higher ceiling with this than usual too. 

I find that thumps in SWFEs tend to underachieve a bit and mix quicker than modeled. I think the higher ceiling depends on if the costal gets going but otherwise looks like a 6-8" to sleet type of deal for coastal areas. Those in Rockland and further NW look to be in a great spot for major snows but 6-8" would be the biggest storm in years for coastal areas so we'll certainly take that.

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31 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

yup; 6-10 seems right for most; still laughing thinking about people two days ago talking about 20/25:1 ratios

This is a classic SWFE event where we thump and end as sleet

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.

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Just now, eduggs said:

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.

Gfs looks great too. But that model sucks 

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Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs only gets the primary to Tennessee an jumps to the coast. That's ideal for us an something to watch. All others have it into wv or pa

Theres just no reason to believe the GFS unless it gets any other model support. The alternative scenario of the other models is not that bad though.

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time

Gfs is also slower with the precip arrival and lasts longer on Monday .

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Just now, eduggs said:

Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience.

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.

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Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.

I have been saying this for days. We are all getting snow. 

There are things can go wrong in every storm. Here, we are locked to see a major winter storm. We can chat about model output, but repeating that you are "Concerned" its not necessary. Ruins the vibe.

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