Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM is a strong thump with several hours of legitimately heavy snow. But it still brings sleet in late afternoon. The LHV on north stays mostly snow and continues lightly through Mon morning.

Do you think it’s too cold or no? It’s the snowiest model now

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[SACRUS]

10am tomorrow 

 

[EastonSN+]

The warmest the 700 layer gets.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Do you think it’s too cold or no? It’s the snowiest model now

I think the 3rd party graphics showing the snow-sleet line on the RGEM are probably too far south. The NAM usually wins on this when it is insistent and all guidance has moved towards it. I'm not really sure about the actual thermals on the model - that would be difficult to diagnose without balloon soundings. But even if sleet mixes in to Sussex, Orange, and Putnam I think it will be a snow-sleet mix during the steady precip. as opposed to a clean flip to all sleet.

[SACRUS]

 

1pm tomorrow

 

[Joe4alb]

so far so good

[eduggs]

18z NAM looks slower or south with the sleet line through VA and MD initially. Good sign for far!

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The warmest the 700 layer gets.

There could still be a warm layer below 700 mb and above 850 mb.

[Winterweatherlover]

NAM looks a hair colder but not much, at least it's not getting worse...

[SACRUS]

4pm 

 

[nycsnow]

Nam continues to be on its own 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

That looks like a big change, look at eastern Long Island even! 

Friendly reminder that 700mb is not the warmest level.

[wthrmn654]

Just now, eduggs said:

Friendly reminder that 700mb is not the warmest level.

I thought it was the nam being posted l ol disregard

[Joe4alb]

not much change 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam continues to be on its own 

It was a little colder than the last run. So thats a step towards the others.

[Winterweatherlover]

Still an early flip to sleet for most on here on the NAM but did up snow totals by about an inch or two.

[SACRUS]

7pm tomorrow

 

[Jt17]

Nam continues to be on its own 

First tick back to the rest, hopefully it went overboard with the warm nose and falls in line with the rest of the guidance.


.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

not much change 

Sleet likewise further south on this run.  Affects the northern burbs.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

4pm 

 

19 and sleet lol

 

[Jt17]

not much change 

That's like 30 miles man.


.

[Stormlover74]

Need another tick or two south

[psv88]

NAM better. Nice 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Jt17 said:

That's like 30 miles man.


.

It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.

[jm1220]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

not much change 

Hopefully tonight's 00z gets better, then I'll start to legit worry it's onto something. I consider this the low end and RGEM the high end if all goes perfectly. This run looked maybe a hair better but all in all still sucks. Tough forecast for NYC because it's really a couple hour difference and intensity of the initial snow. 

[MarcmmKU]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend

NAM