Major Hurricane Isaias

[NorthHillsWx]

GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now? 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I need to drive from Charlotte NC to Miami and realize that is NOT happening Saturday but do you guys think I will be much better on Sunday or should I just do the drive on Monday instead ? Thanks for any input 

[suzook]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I need to drive from Charlotte NC to Miami and realize that is NOT happening Saturday but do you guys think I will be much better on Sunday or should I just do the drive on Monday instead ? Thanks for any input 

Its out of the south by Sunday

[NorthHillsWx]

The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously 

[WxWatcher007]

Would love to see recon sample the eastern eyewall again. It just passed the NE portion of the eyewall. 

958.7mb extrapolated so far. 

[NorthHillsWx]

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down 

[NorthHillsWx]

Well i didn’t expect it but somehow we got a picturesque hurricane out if this. Clearly very powerful looking at satellite. Beast 

[WxWatcher007]

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall. 

[cptcatz]

28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It might be earlier than that. Keeps bumping up landfall time each run. We’re not working with a ton of time for this to fall apart and it doesn’t matter when the center crosses because that eyewall is obviously out ahead of it. Dangerous situation saw they increased max surge from 7 to 9 feet, not insignificant at all especially with the population center this is plowing into 

I think the surge will be overblown on this. A fast moving small storm doesn't have time to build up a big surge. Kinda like a Charley situation.

[WxWatcher007]

Not on radar, but that tower is producing substantial lightning now in the northern part of the eyewall. 

[NEGA_Dawg]

When will it make its north turn. Seems to still be heading north east. 

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall. 

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach, but when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing signs soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves, that is still in that process of an intensification jump.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Updated images. Note the new tower going up around the eyewall. 

Sat image reminds me of Opal.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We all know that this storm will likely be weakening on approach bit when landfall is around 12 hours away you really want to start seeing sign soon. As it currently is presenting it appears to be a cat 3, which underwent rapid intensification a couple days ago and has since intensified steadily, with a jump overnight as rotating columns established themselves that is still in that process of an intensification jump. 

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall. 

[olafminesaw]

Down from 960 to 959 MB on that latest dropsonde. Convection doing work

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

When will it make its north turn. Seems to still be heading north east. 

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes. 

Yea, once it moves perpendicular to the shear, disruption to the circulation increases.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

One thing that I alluded to earlier but want to say now...both HAFS A & B have this peaking in the next few hours around 115kt. HAFS-B gets this to 123kt around 18z. If we get anywhere close to that it's going to be hard to avoid a major landfall. 

The regional hurricane models started hinting at this yesterday but there’s a solid chance of a cat 4 peak, especially with the still improving presentation. Would like to see more pressure falls continuing for that to happen but this hot tower might do it we’re roughly 10 hours or so from landfall and this hasn’t peaked. I’m growing doubtful of significant weakening given trends this morning. Hurricane models also show this being much stronger on the coast than yesterday.I think the continued easterly motion and increase in speed is the cause. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

[olafminesaw]

Coming in now for a rare pass #6

[PhiEaglesfan712]

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down 

If we care about safety, there should be no games in this area on Saturday. Forget the $$$, common sense and safety should come first. These games can be played on Sunday or even Monday. 

Sandy made landfall on Monday (10/29/2012), and I didn't leave to go anywhere until Wednesday (10/31).

[LawdogGRNJ]

Not to take away from the immediate impact dangers, but being up in NJ, I'm starting to be concerned with the remnants hitting like Ida did.  We got over six inches of rain in just a few hours causing significant flooding.

[Boston Bulldog]

Whole northern eyewall is blowing up with convection now

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

Good call. I was all over the eastern track, but I should have factored the implications of that more heavily into the intensity forecast, as more of an easterly component minimizes shear. I hit that hard in the Thursday and Thursday night forecast period from Wednesday, but neglected it later.

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Coming in now for a rare pass #6

A rapidly intensifying major under 10 hours from landfall is justification for as many passes as they safely have fuel for!

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

Not to take away from the immediate impact dangers, but being up in NJ, I'm starting to be concerned with the remnants hitting like Ida did.  We got over six inches of rain in just a few hours causing significant flooding.

Models (at least right now) show in moving in and out fairly quickly so maybe 1-2 inches of rain

[lee59]

Going over very warm water now keeping the intensity up. Will hit cooler water as it goes north and shear to weaken it. Time is running out.

[jconsor]

Historical context - Isaias is easily the strongest Oct-Nov GOM hurricane since the beginning of the 20th Century when considering the 15 strongest El Ninos.  Note that 2002 (Lili) was excluded from this list as it was a Modoki Nino.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108558918406328651

[FPizz]

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, on a NNE heading. Due north may not happen until it's on final approach, which is important for shear purposes. 

Looks like an angel with the center being the head and the flight path being the body

[mob1]

37 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think the surge will be overblown on this. A fast moving small storm doesn't have time to build up a big surge. Kinda like a Charley situation.

Surge is always tricky to nail down, but while the inhibiting factors will help, there's actually a decently large areas of strong winds on the eastern side of the storm and I believe the northern gulf is slightly more susceptible to surge due to the shallow continental shelf. 

Likely won't be devastating, but I can see areas like Destin seeing a fairly significant storm surge.