3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think SPC in general (probably more a discussion for the general severe thread) is not geared well towards public consumption. A person sees "slight risk" and doesn't take the threat seriously.

Or they see "10% tornado" and are like big deal. We as weather weenies know how to evaluate this - but average Joe is not now, or in the past going to fundamentally understand SPC outlook categories or percentages. Some of the switch to "level X out of X" has helped - but hasn't eliminated the issue.

I think a good way to communicate to the public that these risks show is saying the SPC (severe weather prediction center) have put us in a risk level of 4/5. This risk is reserved for 2-5 times a decade usage in our area. It sounds a lot more threatening than "we're in a moderate risk from the SPC"

[somecallmetim]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think SPC in general (probably more a discussion for the general severe thread) is not geared well towards public consumption. A person sees "slight risk" and doesn't take the threat seriously.
 

I'd argue the general public doesn't look at SPC at all, and most of them rely almost exclusively on weather apps if they even think about the forecast. A severe thunderstorm/tornado watch/warning day of is where 98% of the public that pays attention will tune in. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, somecallmetim said:

I'd argue the general public doesn't look at SPC at all, and most of them rely almost exclusively on weather apps if they even think about the forecast. A severe thunderstorm/tornado watch/warning day of is where 98% of the public that pays attention will understand. 

The issue is social media. SPC stuff gets posted and reposted pretty virally both with/and without explanations from whoever is posting it. 

[somecallmetim]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The issue is social media. SPC stuff gets posted and reposted pretty virally both with/and without explanations from whoever is posting it. 

Fair, but if we are talking social media isn't it more likely to be overhyped than under? 

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The issue is social media. SPC stuff gets posted and reposted pretty virally both with/and without explanations from whoever is posting it. 

Local news stations also show Spc outlooks 

[TSSN+]

12z Nam few cells around 1pm but this later oh ok

 

[weatherwiz]

Probably one of the most impressive line-embedded tornado potential I think I've seen for these parts tomorrow. Unusually when you're seeing 15% tornado probs, you are either talking about or looking for discrete cells (which of course are very possible tomorrow) but that degree of turning combined with sufficient CAPE in the layer and timing of the forcing...going to see some significant rotation embedded within that line tomorrow. 

[Imgoinhungry]

12z Nam few cells around 1pm but this later oh ok
 

What time is this map for? I am concerned about the evening commute and school buses being on the roads!


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[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What time is this map for? I am concerned about the evening commute and school buses being on the roads!


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7pm 

[TSSN+]

I would guess LWX will issue a special weather statement later highlighting the risk. They put one out for the line that blew down all the power lines in Westminster in that moderate risk event like 3 years ago.

[NorthArlington101]

What time is this map for? I am concerned about the evening commute and school buses being on the roads!


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Tomorrow is an obvious evening activities canceled for local school systems. Trickier call to early release depending on when the squall line is. I’d guess most schools pull the trigger.

[RDM]

CWG sounding the alarm with a couple of articles.  

[Interstate]

It would be crazy to have that severe thunderstorms squall line go through, and have an end as sleet and snow

[aldie 22]

Just gonna ignore all that blue on the 3k nam?

[snowfan]

3k NAM has some cells running sw to ne well ahead of the front tomorrow after lunch in the warm sector. 
 

[snowfan]

Impressive surface cold push right on the heels of the front.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Good trends if you want legit severe here tomorrow.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Where’s @Ellinwood on this setup?

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Where’s @Ellinwood on this setup?

Eskimo Joe has been in... so I think we are at the top rung lol

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, yoda said:

Eskimo Joe has been in... so I think we are at the top rung lol

A representative from every preceding rung must be on board to go to the next step. I know Ian and Ellinwood aren’t around as much now so it may be time to update the system—just like the SPC. It’s just worked so beautifully for the last what, decade?  

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A representative from every preceding rung must be on board to go to the next step. I know Ian and Ellinwood aren’t around as much now so it may be time to update the system—just like the SPC. It’s just worked so beautifully for the last what, decade?  

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

Shouldn’t high risk, be high risk? Haha 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

Yeah I mean it's literally his name 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Kmlwx]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A representative from every preceding rung must be on board to go to the next step. I know Ian and Ellinwood aren’t around as much now so it may be time to update the system—just like the SPC. It’s just worked so beautifully for the last what, decade?  

 

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

I think Mark (Ellinwood) is still around just not as much. There are folks on here that used to (may still?) chat with him regularly. 

[somecallmetim]

He popped in with a couple of snow forecast maps over the winter.

[high risk]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I nominate @high risk to replace Ellinwood

Hahaha.  I don’t want to move on that chart.   Maybe it’s because I’m out of town, but while I completely buy the high-end scenarios, there are a still a few things I don’t like about the setup. I would gladly exchange some of the shear to get more instability.  Yes, there is still some cape, and maybe it’s enough, but the forecast soundings have tall, very skinny cape which sometimes doesn’t get the job done.   That said, it’s tough to ignore that a forced line of convection will roll through in an environment that can certainly bring some big wind to the surface.  

[high risk]

Oh, and anyone trying to nail down the timing should never look at the NAMs.  They’re always a couple of hours late with these events.   

[ibawahu]

How does this event compare to the 2012 derecho?

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, ibawahu said:

How does this event compare to the 2012 derecho?

Can’t really compare that. That day was almost 100 with ton of cape. Also wasn’t even in an Spc outlook for severe in the morning that day.