Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Jt17]

The Canadian Ensemble mean also has 12”+ potential back to NYC.

 

Show that to the guy who wanted one non-US model to show an amped solution.


.

[Mail Man]

Just now, boxingdayblizzard said:

Does the ai euro run at 18z? 

Yes it does 10 minutes

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, boxingdayblizzard said:

Does the ai euro run at 18z? 

Yes comes out around 6:15

[NsWx516]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Show that to the guy who wanted one non-US model to show an amped solution.


.

What about the JMA? That was one of the first to have the storm also

[NEG NAO]

KU IF Correct -- I would take 1/2 of this

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, NsWx516 said:

What about the JMA? That was one of the first to have the storm also

The JMA got February 2006 right two weeks before it actually occurred. Those were great times. 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

KU IF Correct -- I would take 1/2 of this

Why take half when you can have full?

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

KU IF Correct -- I would take 1/2 of this

just saw a pennsy weather discussion online where they said welp, we went from a minor event to potentially historic here......

[boxingdayblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Yes it does 10 minutes

Love all the replies! Let’s see what euros do in the next 30 minutes then. Been fun to track this storm..

[Prue11]

HECS!!

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Why take half when you can have full?

 

[Mail Man]

Would love for the euro to hop into a major storm.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Nibor said:

Why take half when you can have full?

 

[NsWx516]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Would love for the euro to hop into a major storm.

Honestly in this point and time I dont see how it cannot

[Santa Claus]

1 minute ago, NsWx516 said:

Honestly in this point and time I dont see how it cannot

well here’s another possibility

that the GFS is wrong

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Show that to the guy who wanted one non-US model to show an amped solution.


.

That’s what everyone want’s to see starting at 0z. Since the NAM is still outside its best under 48 hr range and it hasn’t had an update since 2017. Plus the OP GFS is still more amped and further west than the other operational guidance.

But I can see a meet in the middle scenario where we come in under than the OP GFS snowfall totals but higher than some of the other operational runs.  

We should have a good idea after the 0z to 12z guidance. Sometimes the max banding potential can sneak a little more west than the average of the guidance. 

[winterwarlock]

18 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Mt Holly 1/10 chance maps. Haven't seen something like this in a LONG time

A few weeks ago 18-20

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Santa Claus said:

well here’s another possibility

that the GFS is wrong

The EURO caved to the GFS. 

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

well here’s another possibility

that the GFS is wrong

I mean basically every recent model suite is showing a minimum of 10”

[NEG NAO]

47 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

gotta spread awareness you don't want people scheduling stuff during a blizzard, it's going to be dangerous to be out and about!

thing that is worrisome is its going to be a heavy wet snow with high winds that causes problems .

[Nibor]

Already positive changes. Steeper ridge out west. More phased/slightly sharper trough. A little more spacing with the eventual 50/50 low.

[EasternLI]

Yeah right from the start euro is phasing better.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Already positive changes. Steeper ridge out west. More phased/slightly sharper trough. A little more spacing with the eventual 50/50 low.

Euro trying to play catch up to the GFS - SAD !!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Already positive changes. Steeper ridge out west. More phased/slightly sharper trough. A little more spacing with the eventual 50/50 low.

Yep

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Euro trying to play catch up to the GFS - SAD !!

What has this world become?

[gravitylover]

7 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

well here’s another possibility

that the GFS is wrong

Nah, that never happens 

[Mail Man]

Hearing euro ai is west

[MJO812]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Hearing euro ai is west

Yes

[NEG NAO]

Just now, gravitylover said:

Nah, that never happens 

even if it is half wrong its still a MECS

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would also add to that the days with snow cover in NYC this season. If this storm does verify, the number of days this winter may approach or exceed 50.

I don't really know how many winters have had over 50 days of snow cover in NYC. The last one off the top of my head was 2010/11. There may have been 1 or 2 after that but I'm not sure.

We still have 2-3" of heavy snow/sleet on our entire property (over 1" since 1/17), although it's no longer topped off with a hard frozen sleetcrete layer anymore as that has softened up from the rain/warmth.  Should still be >1" on Sunday and then boom!