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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

Weather Will

By Weather Will,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Just caught up with this thread. In a nutshell.... lol

stormtracker
stormtracker

Almost time to change my avatar to reflect the mood 

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Climate175

Climate175

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. 

Well, I find it always interesting to watch how things unfold. That’s gonna vary from person to person LOL. Whatever ultimately happens, I am in for the ride.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. 

Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging.

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anotherman

anotherman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CAPE said:

Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging.

We already had that within 30 minutes this morning.  GFS gives us PDIII.  Euro AI is a dud.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, anotherman said:

We already had that within 30 minutes this morning.  GFS gives us PDIII.  Euro AI is a dud.

Then Will says we should be using the ensembles more lol. Uh, yeah been saying and doing it forever lol. Only post I made this morning was 'big picture' ens mean.

Good to see Will post that though. Reborn!

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Climate175

Climate175

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yep. Facilitated by those who race to be the first to post op run snow maps at range, then if the next run or 2 don't have it the posts become its a dud or a disaster. Gets the weenie pendulum swinging.

It takes humility to say a lot don’t know how to read models properly (I’ll say myself included LOL), that’s why I try to read more than I post. Mainly post for reacting to developments. 

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is fun to look at the globals in fantasy range but reality is we need to just look at trends in the ensembles.  Biggest take is that next weekend still has potential.

Yes, "next weekend still has potential" though the father AI has lost interest.

EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all interested..................  GFS Op will last about 4 more hrs..

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z AI EPS still showing potential next weekend.

IMG_8248.png

IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals.  

It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event.

Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. 

I love when things are at people’s throats. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You misrepresent things quite often. I get excited about weather, and let some of that excitement come through on the board, hoping to be like a bright light sometimes. I have been very optimistic on this Winter, from the start. I think there was one period in December where the pattern was bad but I predicted the 11" snowstorm well in advance.. remember you were even asking me, if not la nina and el nino then when, and I responded that although nothing was currently showing on models, we will probably be at average snowfall after the next few weeks, this la nina was/is not a "dead pattern".. and here we are. Besides that, it's unbelievable and childish that everything is about someone's bias.. so many extraverts on this board communicate like that. like you can only think in blacks and whites. Nevermind that there is actually a weather forecast being made. I should not get a "doom and gloom" bias from being down on snow over the last several Winters. We have been below average and like 90% of the storms I get right! If model shows snow 5-7 days out, I say too warm or rain, and it rains, that's not a bias! 

I agree that next Winter is not a definite good year, this Winters ridge in the Rockies and West coast is concerning to me. When we get a warm pattern some future Winter, it could torch. That's not a "doom and gloom bias", Im discussing the science of the situation. Patterns in the west lead us by time, sometimes years. History also says that this Winters pattern of cold NE/warm SW is likely to continue through March, and even Apr-Aug to some extent. I just made a post in ENSO thread about it. We may still have some opportunities this Winter. 

It’s called a joke Chuck. People respect your opinions. The reason you are “doom and gloom” is you’re usually right and the truth of where we live is usually it’s not going to snow. Even more so the last 9 years!   
 

I do hope we don’t waste our chance at a snowy winter. We need 1-2 more decent snow events this year to feel like we really took advantage of what’s been a rare -AO winter.  If things ended now most would end up below avg snowfall which is a shame given the potential. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting. 

Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude   It’s sucks.   I’m trying to climb out. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude   It’s sucks.   I’m trying to climb out. 

The Latest Ensemble runs look good for mid month. I posted the GEFS earlier. Here is the Canadian-

1771156800-2RVTSfSP2xE.png

1771156800-mV7MNkUYRgE.png

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Get me out of eeyore mode man. I hate being here in the basement with the likes of rev reenact dude   It’s sucks.   I’m trying to climb out. 

We didn’t strike out.  We did get one really good storm. But one of these years we need to actually get lucky and max out one of these good patterns with potential. We’re way way way past due. Maybe it does happen this year still. We have this shot around PD and I suspect we get another shot sometime after also. 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
IMO, this model has no credibility anymore, because of occasional unpredictable occurrence of highly inflated totals.  
It gave me 12" for 3.5" on December 8 a few days ahead of event.
Jan. 20, it gave me 16.5" for 6" on Jan. 25.

It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range
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Nomz

Nomz

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Heisy said:


It’s an ensemble mean, doesn’t guarantee anything, but the fact that it has that high of a mean signals an increased winter storm chance around 14-15th range

Don't even try this dude would rather never see snow again before he admits the euro is the best model

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We didn’t strike out.  We did get one really good storm. But one of these years we need to actually get lucky and max out one of these good patterns with potential. We’re way way way past due. Maybe it does happen this year still. We have this shot around PD and I suspect we get another shot sometime after also. 

how much did you get in the Jan 25 storm?

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
~10" if you include the sleet but the depth ended up around 8 after compaction.  I know technically that gets recorded as 10" but it feels cheap since the depth never got above around 8.  

Wow I would of thought you got a lot more snow before changeover

How did we pull of 2 inches of qpf at 15 degrees and not get a hecs lol
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