February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Jebman]

Its going to be so ice age frigid in Texas into Feb 23 that I need an entire new wardrobe. Maybe the AMOC stopped altogether.

I have officially given up all hope of Spring in the Deep South in 2026. It's been repealed.

[Duca892]

GFS continues to advertise at least something. Clipper, miller B? Idk I’m stupid as shit. Around the 7th-9th period

[Heisy]

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in.

Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th

The 00z OP run had snow down into
The southern mid Atlantic for this one.

End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up.

This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, Heisy said:

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in.

Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th

The 00z OP run had snow down into
The southern mid Atlantic for this one.

End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up.

This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

 

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Next chance seems like a weak wave around Thursday next week? It’s actually been fairly consistent on guidance. Sort of just looks like a cold front passage but antecedent airmass is cold enough to be snow for us potentially. 

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Everybody here is claiming snow storms. So I’m going to go very long range and claim an 80 degree day sometime in the week after Easter. We’ll have to torch eventually and what better time than early April? We’ll have earned it by then.

[Terpeast]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?

Probably not 

[baltosquid]

It looks like a front for the 4th/5th now but tbh it is going deeper and deeper on the Euro AI, its ensembles, and the Euro’s deterministic ensembles. The spoilers to me are the ridge being too far east (again) and a possible lakes low. Given how noisy the NS has been I think the latter is movable in both a good and bad direction. The ridge feels like it will be more stubborn. But I think there’s upside here.

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, stormtracker said:

lol, Euro tries the EXACT same thing Next Saturday as it's doing for this Saturday.  Can't make this shit up.  Same result

But the whole seasonal trend thing is bullshit according to many. This has been a decadal trend at this point. 

[stormtracker]

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

Strange...I've never known you to be like this Randy. 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

I think it’s gonna be cold and the long wave pattern is good and it’s our prime climo.  Hopefully stuff pops up!

[DMAC98]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Both the regular and AIFS EPS look mildly intriguing for Super Bowl weekend.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, DMAC98 said:

Both the regular and AIFS EPS look mildly intriguing for Super Bowl weekend.

Has some upside potential to that. 6z AI was 3"+.

[Twilly05]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

Hang in there! We’re gonna score!

[Paleocene]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no optimism regarding the next ten days.  By the time the next system it’s gonna be warm.   Prove me wrong. Just bitter af over here. 

normally i'd agree with you but this winter is built different. the atmosphere remembered how to be cold. as PSU always says, just gotta time the cold with a wave right...

 

(not shown: matching CPC chart which shows below normal precip )

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

normally i'd agree with you but this winter is built different. the atmosphere remembered how to be cold. as PSU always says, just gotta time the cold with a wave right...

 

Looks like the woodstove is gonna keep on chugging. 

[RevWarReenactor]

This is a good winter. Most of us are already at average yearly snowfall or above. We are just wasting the chance of it to be a historic winter. But its a Nina, so.....

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Most of us are already at average yearly snowfall or above

What?

[87storms]

I’m getting very interested in the pattern next week. Ensembles are intriguing. Seems like a potentially more normal way of getting snow.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

I’m getting very interested in the pattern next week. Ensembles are intriguing. Seems like a potentially more normal way of getting snow.

There is no normal way to get snow here

[87storms]

Just now, Nomz said:

There is no normal way to get snow here

There’s no “easy” way, but having a gulf that’s available for overrunning is the “best” way.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

I'm worried about the thermal conditions we'll see if the storm exists. The 6z Euro AI shows my worry pretty well when looking at the 850mb/wind chart

It has the 850 low right over the great lakes and bringing in warm air from the Gulf. While we get some grace by our cold conditions leading in its not like we have a high to the north to save us. Just don't really know what the upside to this storm would be? The CMC H5 vort shows that maybe we could get a storm if we get the pass under us but otherwise I don't think a more negative trough would help us due to the thermal issues it would bring.

Just not really enthused about the setup besides maybe a clipper like storm; but even that may just be a mix/rain

[Duca892]

GFS showing a clipper? frontal passage? for the 5th

[Weather Will]

We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks!

Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern
Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East
Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper,
Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy
Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield,
Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head
231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
  winds could cause tree damage.

[Nomz]

Just now, Weather Will said:

We ca still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks!

Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern
Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East
Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper,
Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy
Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield,
Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head
231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
  winds could cause tree damage.

It should have been MEEEE

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks!

Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern
Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East
Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper,
Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy
Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield,
Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head
231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
  winds could cause tree damage.

Heh, what a forecast for the Outer Banks. That's nuts

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We can still get a big storm in the Mid Atlantic; congrats Outer Banks!

Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern
Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Manns Harbor, Manteo, East
Lake, Gum Neck, Duck, Kill Devil Hills, Bath, Swanquarter, Roper,
Kitty Hawk, Columbia, Aurora, Engelhard, Chocowinity, Stumpy
Point, Belhaven, Ponzer, Washington, Creswell, Fairfield,
Scranton, Southern Shores, and Nags Head
231 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10
  and 16 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 to 60 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of eastern North Carolina.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Strong
  winds could cause tree damage.

Chasing is tempting.