Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[EastonSN+]

Definite improvements for the NAM and RGEM as the primary on both are faster to move east and do not gain as much latitude. 

ICON was a step back with the opposite of the above.

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

RGEM and ICON look like holds to me in terms of the thermals. The ICON might actually be a tiny hair warmer but 6z was a weenie run. The NAM was better. I guess the positive takeaway is we have pretty good run to run consistency and even inter-model consistency now that the GFS is getting closer to consensus.

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. 

[eduggs]

Add the RRFS to the models that have improved at 12z. It shifted the thermals and surface features south. Looks like a great run for most of our forum. And it's not quite over here with some light wraparound stuff still to move through.

[Winterweatherlover]

I don't take the ICON very seriously but the cutoff is pretty insane, 8 inches southern NYC, 20 inches at the Bronx/Westchester border. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z GFS

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12Z NAM looked way better for NYC, RGEM slightly worse, expect some wobbling, going to be close in terms of mainly snow vs several hours of sleet but I think we are narrowing the borderline area to 30 miles north and south of the I80 corridor.

Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range. 

Yeah it didn't change much other than got drier so looks like less snow. Nam got wetter. 

[psv88]

NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. 
 

the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent.

so far I like the 12z suite 

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Going with 6-10” for my area. 

where is your area ?

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, psv88 said:

NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. 
 

the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent.

so far I like the 12z suite 

I agree overall it's looked improved.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. 

Agreed about the primary - that's key. A weaker, further south primary won't push the dryslot as far north. That could lead to a continuation of light precipitation after the thump into the overnight as opposed to a quick end. The RGEM has been steadily flatting the longwave trof, which would be associated with a weaker primary... but models historically weaken this feature too quickly.

[eduggs]

Looks like the GFS is going to be more amped/warmer than 6z at least.

[SACRUS]

 

12z Suite

 

Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC

SREF:  1.4 / (8.8)
NAM: 1.7 / (14.6)
RGEM:  1.1 / (7.8)
ICON:  1.2 / (8.0)
GFS:  1.4 / (12.4)
GGEM:  1.1 / (8.8)
GEFS: 1.5 / (11.6)
UKMET: 0.5 / ( 6.7)
Euro AI AIFS:  1/1 / (10.2)
Euro : 0.9 / (6.9)

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. 

I think it's still a bit too early to narrow down how far north the meaningful sleet line makes it but I think it'll be somewhere in a range from about 30 miles south or north of I80/NYC.  Ideally we'd want to probably see it south of NYC today expecting the last second north bump with middle level warming. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z GFS

 

 

 

 

[eduggs]

The GFS is joining the other guidance but not quite to the RGEM it looks like. Pretty good model agreement.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

The GFS is joining the other guidance but not quite to the RGEM it looks like. Pretty good model agreement.

Its starting earlier on the gfs with a big thump. 

[SACRUS]

1/23 1z GFS

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

poll on the city accumulations

 

https://x.com/cryptogeek101/status/2014501541592420854?s=46

[eduggs]

Sleet to LI by 0z but still a great run CNJ north.

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Astoriaweather]

Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. 

https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

poll on the city accumulations

 

https://x.com/cryptogeek101/status/2014501541592420854?s=46

I don't have and don't want an X account - can't you start a thread here ?

[Stormlover74]

Gfs basically stayed the same. A little less snow to the north but went up a bit south

[psv88]

Models look great! Back to work

[NittanyWx]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. 

Agree, what happens south of the Merrit and between 287 and 80 is still a big questionmark

[WestBabylonWeather]

Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z GFS

 

 

Total QPF storm:

 

Total Snow/Sleet Frz rn (10:1)

 

 

[MarcmmKU]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

barely any sleet on the nam New York City and north! Snows well into Monday!

If the NAM continues to show this I'd be bullish. NAM is typically good at detecting the northern extent of the sleet line. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said:

Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. 

https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20

Be careful with some of these online YouTube" Mets" for obvious reasons .......