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NittanyWx

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Everything posted by NittanyWx

  1. NittanyWx
    Depends on which coast, CT did well with this.
  2. NittanyWx
    Wilton, CT Final total: 8"
  3. NittanyWx
    The winner ended up being that merritt/287/91/84 box after all. The loser is me for bitching out about it last night after the HRRR. Shoulda stuck with original call.
  4. NittanyWx
    Wilton, CT - 11:35 32/32 7.5"
  5. NittanyWx
    10:45 AM - Wilton, CT 31.7/31 6" flat
  6. NittanyWx
    Snow rates have been about 1.5"/hr since 7 AM up here
  7. NittanyWx
    9:30 am - Wilton, CT 31/30 5" Even accumulation Kicking myself for biting on the Euro/HRRR last night up north.
  8. NittanyWx
    As far as the Euro/HRRR goes, this is one of the worst performances inside 36 hours I can remember.
  9. NittanyWx
    Wilton, CT 8 AM Obs 31/30 3" even on the ground
  10. NittanyWx
    It was mentioned several times that this would occur. The accumulations for this storm will likely double on non-paved surfaces.
  11. NittanyWx
    Impressive stuff up in orange. This has been one of the weirder 24 hours leading into a storm in my career. Raising the totals for city and Island was right to do, but biting on the N/W sharp cutoff as a function of near term trends was not.
  12. NittanyWx
    4-8" looks good for most (obviously less up by 84 and just north), again with the pavement caveat in urban areas and NYC. No need to fight the southerly trend this late. The returns in Tennessee weren't great this afternoon and think the trend south is a response to that.
  13. NittanyWx
    Was on the phone with my old boss this morning, told him 6" in that north shore snow zone is probably reasonable top end. But it's a snow board 6", i think a lot of 2-4", 2-5" readings mostly on grass
  14. NittanyWx
    Think you can go in the middle of the two ranges and be fine. This storm is very juicy, but very marginal too. Snow board will do better than 'on ground' It won't look or feel like 3-6" for a bunch of folks in the city (more than manhattan too, brooklyn et al).
  15. NittanyWx
    Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise. it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'. It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago. This is game on north of the merritt/287.
  16. NittanyWx
    Similar thinking, pending 12z adjustments in track. I like this a lot in the 287-84-merritt-91 box
  17. NittanyWx
    taking under on that 12" by a significant margin
  18. NittanyWx
    I like this a lot for north of 287/Merritt, though a large chunk of our area is gonna waste some of the overnight precipitation to sleet and mix at the onset with the warm nose above 850 and best diurnal timing. This is a frustrating one for the coast, especially the island, but that's often the issue in marginal storms like this one.
  19. NittanyWx
    There is also tangential/research being done on what impact any SSW event has on the actual PV and the spatial distribution of 2m temperature anomalies/h5 pattern. There are statistically higher odds of certain loading and post event patterns depending on whether a displacement or full split event occurs.
  20. NittanyWx
    Tropics Check
  21. NittanyWx
    Once again, a clean eastward propagatation in subsidence...the models handled this well.
  22. NittanyWx
    OLR/VPA tracking:
  23. NittanyWx
    Background
  24. NittanyWx
    We're talking about very different time horizons. I'm not using a Euro monthly inside d7, I'm not using a Euro weekly inside D7. I am seeing W Pac subsidence inside d7 on most dynamic models though, and I'm also seeing upper level pattern shifts in regions of the tropics I forecast for reflect those changes. I don't think persistence is going to outperform the models inside d7, personally. But we can verify on Feb 5-6 and see whether that's true or not. I suspect the model will win in this Jan 29-Feb 5 window.
  25. NittanyWx
    Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim. Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were. Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe. I don't agree with that approach right now. Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting. If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges. But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window. I'm skeptical of that, but let's see.
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