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NittanyWx

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Everything posted by NittanyWx

  1. NittanyWx
    MLK week has my attention. It already had my attention, but now that modeling is aligning with longer range...got some pieces on the board
  2. NittanyWx
    i'm skeptical of that in CP given 850 low
  3. NittanyWx
    Again, the sfc low track isnt the primary issue for the dynamic forcing argument you're making. There was always going to be a clear period of SE fetch and marginal temps at the coast which were and have been highlighted as a hindrance. There was a thought for some here that 'dynamics' fixes that issue, as if the surface low is the primary focus of the storm on that front when the dynamic argument is mostly a function of secondary SW interaction and timing of that with the primary. Those two things aren't directly linked to each other. The issue with this marginal airmass and trying to thread the needle has been highlighted here by multiple folks for almost a week now.
  4. NittanyWx
    There was still going to be an 850 low issue and warm nose to contend with. The best dynamics for wraparound band have been clearly centered over New England. Track on the GFS is still DelMarVa to the benchmark or close to it. If the airmass weren't as poor it would help, but the 'best dynamics' are a function of vort/SW interaction which is primarily a timing issue/handling of that rather than surface low track.
  5. NittanyWx
    Trend to watch today is secondary vort interaction primarily regarding what happens on the back end for the interior. Comfortable with the idea of SE fetch being strong at 850 for a portion of overnight Sunday, to me coastal situation is pretty clear and has been for some time now.
  6. NittanyWx
    And will also say this for the 100th time, if the clown maps let you down that's mostly a 'you' problem if you don't look at the soundings and surface temps.
  7. NittanyWx
    Not much new on my side. Getting further confirmation marginal temp profile both at the surface and aloft made this a mixing ptype and accumulation issue for coastal plain (LI, City, S of 287/Merritt) and that the north of 287/merritt crowd was best positioned for significant accumulating snow and that has not changed.
  8. NittanyWx
    2m is a hindrance and still have to contend with the warm nose around 800.
  9. NittanyWx
    Not sure I'd go that far, but this was encouraging for those northern burbs and the risk of CCB banding for those folks increased today, particularly east of the Hudson.
  10. NittanyWx
    Very, very interesting dynamics on this run for Sunday mid-day for those merritt/287 north
  11. NittanyWx
    I'll toss in another complicating factor, there's been a steady increase in mid level activity/vorts in the Midwest too since the western feature started getting sampled. I agree with you, FWIW on inherent NAM biases at hr 60, part of the reason i'm cautious and suspicious it's a bit overwarmed.
  12. NittanyWx
    Copying from SNE: Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast. That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west. As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors. 0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft. I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.
  13. NittanyWx
    Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast. That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west. As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors. 0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft. I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.
  14. NittanyWx
    Fun to see the 3 operational models all have different ideas on how to handle that trailing vort interaction. First bit of sampling out west and that's become an increasingly interesting feature.
  15. NittanyWx
    I did and I'm hoping to see an idea on the 0zs of how many individual members have this cconcept with the secondary piece. My initial thought is partial sample size off of partial sampling, plausible but maybe not most likely as of today. Cant dismiss outright though. Obviously if this does end up as a rapid developer, the odds of a CCB type band increase significantly. If it strings out you maybe get some fronto enhancement vs full on CCB weenie band.
  16. NittanyWx
    Have been using tonight as the first benchmark for a bit of 'consolidation' in model land on resolving the departing SW strength and also the main system out west fwiw. Otherwise no new thoughts from yday.
  17. NittanyWx
    Ok, I'll talk about North of the Merritt and North of Tappan Zee just for you
  18. NittanyWx
    I know how to read a clown map. I also know how to read a temperature map and a sounding. You don't want this fight. Tl;dr: the 10:1 clown maps are misleading on accumulations in marginal setups like this and not particularly useful along the coastal plain right now.
  19. NittanyWx
    I mean that's just not true for the island on that run as @jm1220rightly points out.
  20. NittanyWx
    First datapoint where I'm looking at the western system is with the 0z tonight. Mainly looking for changes inside 48 hr with respect the speed of the vortmax cutting off, depth of it as it digs in California and beyond that beginning to take a bit of a cursory look at the Aleutian low and any potential interaction that has with rising (or falling) heights out west for Saturday. Also looking at jet streak out of the gulf and whether there are any changes on that front as well. As an aside, seeing a lot of comments on 'model shows X snow' and a clown map. I think we can do better than rip and run in this forum. Doesn't take much effort to add 'but temps and dews above/below freezing for location y, so it may be overstated in this area. Look at the soundings, let's do the weather right.
  21. NittanyWx
    Probably start the tightening process with the 0z suite tomorrow evening is my hunch
  22. NittanyWx
    Should get a bit more convergence once this thing is sampled inside the next 24-36 hours.
  23. NittanyWx
    think this is a reasonable first guess, though towards lower end.
  24. NittanyWx
    Going to again reiterate that I believe the upside for this storm along the coastal plain is a low end event, even in a suppressed solution, if you want to keep it snow. Inland a different story.
  25. NittanyWx
    Looking forward to modeling tonight/tomorrow midday as we start getting more robust sampling of this western system. I'd say up to this point odds have been slightly skewed towards more suppression vs cutter based on synoptic pattern, we now should start being able to discern which is the more likely risk with better certainty starting with the 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. The region is threading a needle between trying to have enough western amplification/east canada 50/50 to get this storm north (but not too much), trying to deepen the low (but not too much) and if you do both, also trying to avoid warm air nose near the 700mb level. Delicate balancing act with several moving pieces. It's going to be hard at the coastal plain (city, LI, coastal NJ) for this to deliver much more than a light/low-end moderate event I feel because of marginal temps (being overnight does help a bit) but whether this is a notable interior event where sfc temps will be colder we should start getting an idea on soon as we start defining track risks with more conviction. You guys know I've been someone who felt this period could work for over two weeks now, but as I said then and will continue to say now, a few things need to go right still and not all of them have done so yet.
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