Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i tried the kuchera, theres some lolis of 24 plus in the NYC burbs lol

Yea Icon I don't think is very reliable but Kuchera about 18 for the city, around 2 feet around 84, also 2 feet for Boston.

[David-LI]

Has this always been a Miller A storm? That's what it looks like on the ICON. Someone correct me.

[jm1220]

Definitely a positive with this storm that there seems to be a floor of at least a decent event with the initial overrunning surge and potential for something really great if we can get this coastal to crank in time. 

[SACRUS]

 

ICON long duration  1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm

 

[SBUWX23]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Whats better for this event ? 10:1 or Kuchera ?

I would think something in between but we don't really have that. I would use kuchera with caution. But I would also take your qpf and go with something like a 13-15:1 as a cautionary start

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Icon!

I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced?

[Nibor]

Am I wrong in thinking that if the storm closes off at 500mb maybe 300 miles south of this we're in a good place?

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Icon a lot better at 0z than it was at 18z!


.

The 0z ICON is a dream run for pretty much our entire forum - CNJ north. There is a precip. lull Sunday night but it redevelops on Monday and stays mostly snow. I said after 18z that a slight shift south would produce an excellent long duration event and that's exactly what the model shows. Very widespread heavy snow event for most of the northeast, which is uncommon!

[SnowGoose69]

You can almost automatically de-amplify the RGEM a bit at 60-84, thats a rule that seems to work 9 of 10, especially if its more amped than other models in the same period but I only use the RGEM past 48, never the NAM

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

You can almost automatically de-amplify the RGEM a bit at 60-84, thats a rule that seems to work 9 of 10, especially if its more amped than other models in the same period but I only use the RGEM past 48, never the NAM

RGEM not surprisingly seems in line with the GGEM.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced?

Buf looks Lakes enhanced for sure

[wthrmn654]

Winds? Are we looking at crazy winds?  Drifting will be a biotch

[Jt17]

The 0z ICON is a dream run for pretty much our entire forum - CNJ north. There is a precip. lull Sunday night but it redevelops on Monday and stays mostly snow. I said after 18z that a slight shift south would produce an excellent long duration event and that's exactly what the model shows. Very widespread heavy snow event for most of the northeast, which is uncommon!

I wrote this at 108 when it looked like it was fizzling out, but the redevelopment really made it a weenie run indeed!


.

[eduggs]

FWIW, the 0z NAM matches up pretty well with the 12z CMC at 500mb. But it also ticked a little less amped the past 2 runs.

[allgame830]

So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run??

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Winds? Are we looking at crazy winds?  Drifting will be a biotch

Maybe 20-30 mph.   Even though the surface low isn’t too deep there’s still a 20-30mb pressure gradient thanks to that strong high to the north. 

[David-LI]

GFS rolling

[eduggs]

The 0z RGEM is also a tick less amped than 18z but still pretty amped. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run??

It's definitely in the GFS an euro. Gfs rolling now 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run??

I am not sure but the Icon is not a reliable model so I'd want to see more reliable models look like that before getting too excited for the bigger totals scenario.

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)
GEFS *mean: 1.1

[SACRUS]

[Yaz]

Generally speaking, one major player increasing the snow to liquid ratio is to see high relative humidity (>80%) in the dendritic growth zone, which is the height range where temperatures are typically between -10C to -20C, combined with good lift (omega). However, the ratio can influenced by other factors (e.g. high surface wind can readily break apart the dendrites creating less more dense(more compact) surface accumulation).

[Snowguy66]

Are we in phase 8 of the MJO?

[SACRUS]

 

 

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Are we in phase 8 of the MJO?

We are in phase 6 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202601210000

[Prue11]

52 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I did notice Mount Holly NWS seems to have all snow down to ACY so they don't seem to be buying into the more amped solutions. 

I’m not buying it either for my area but I think the mix line could make it up to southern Monmouth 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Are we in phase 8 of the MJO?

No. We are in Phase 6.

[weathermedic]

25 dropsondes reportedly dropped into the low off of Southern California for ingestion into the 0Z models 

[SACRUS]