Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The heavy rates will be key. If those shred up or let up the warm air will advance fast. We saw this in last Feb's SWFE and back in Dec. 

positive thing is; even though it sucks to mix at least sleet still accumulates and it’s not a cold rain or white rain lol

[jm1220]

The real story from this storm will be the icing down south vs the snow we get here. Austin to San Antonio is expected to get up to about 0.25" ice and there are winter storm warnings all the way to almost Corpus Christi. That would be like us getting 2-3 feet of snow in terms of disruptiveness.

[weathermedic]

Meanwhile barometer is still rising at 30.64 (approx 1038 mb)

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

positive thing is; even though it sucks to mix at least sleet still accumulates and it’s not a cold rain or white rain lol

If you're a fan of long lasting snow cover then sleet will encase the snow and it's gonna last a long time 

[SACRUS]

12z NAM

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

hrrr looks good barely mixed at the end

[SACRUS]

12z NAM

 

Snow arrives between 3 - 5 AM

[SACRUS]

7AM

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

stole it from NE

 

 

[SACRUS]

10AM

 

[SACRUS]

NAM has sleet by 1pm into cnj 

[Stormlover74]

What did we ever do to the nam? Why does it hate us so

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

hrrr looks good barely mixed at the end

These 10:1 maps don't do the areas 30 miles and more north of the city any justice. 

[SACRUS]

 

[kat5hurricane]

Three things that were predictable. The GFS caving, the north trend and that the NWS was way too aggressive with their initial maps. I'd say 6-10" locally but on the lower end of that range probably.

[Jt17]

NAM really hates this storm


.

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

What did we ever do to the nam? Why does it hate us so

It’s being retired.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

stole it from NE

 

 

They want it back or they will call social services. 
 

[SACRUS]

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

These 10:1 maps don't do the areas 30 miles and more north of the city any justice. 

Here's the HRRR's total snowfall map using the model's own assessment of the snow-liquid ratio:

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

NAM really hates this storm


.

Im sorry but rates that high as the NAM is showing the changeover is way to aggressive! 

[TJW014]

Last call. Zero changes to the map from yesterday afternoon. Let's see how it goes...

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What did we ever do to the nam? Why does it hate us so

Sleet goes all the way up to NNJ. Nam might be too fast. Sometimes it has these wonky runs the day before.

If this is correct its only a 4-8 inches snowstorm before  heavy sleet.

[SACRUS]

 

[BxEngine]

NAM also showing that sleet line crashing south again and then back north in the evening. Somewhere along that area is in for a rough few hours.

[ILoveWinter]

Is the primary simply stronger with the NAM?

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Sleet goes all the way up to NNJ. Nam might be too fast. Sometimes it has these wonky runs the day before.

If this is correct its only a 4-8 inches snowstorm before  heavy sleet.

NAm sucks, there's not going to be sleet in mountain creek NJ, lets be real here, nam is wrong!

[SnoSki14]

Nam is an icy disaster.

[Winterweatherlover]

NAM ugly for NYC south. At this point have to start taking it more seriously given it's ability to sniff out mid level warming better than other models. I am not saying ride it 100% but I wouldn't discount it either.