Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

NWS is steadfast for my area, and remains forecasting 12-18".

Currently +0.8F

Yeah you'll do great even if you mix

[Big Jims Videos]

News 12 NJ total map will remain unchanged this morning.  

[East of the Parkway]

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

News 12 NJ total map will remain unchanged this morning.  

That 3-6 line likely edges it's way up costal Monmouth East of Rt 35. 

[Stormlover74]

Doubt it means much for us but sounds like snow is underperfroming in ok and KS.  But they're getting a 2nd round tonight

[SnoSki14]

I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. 

Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+ 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think pretty much everyone will see 7-8" with the thump. The wall of snow to sleet idea is playing out as expected. 

Now it's just about timing. The longer we hold off the transition, the more snow we get. Even a 2-3 hr delay could mean the difference between 7" and 10"+ 

It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in

[wthrmn654]

Wtf 

 

The wtf was for the post that's gone that showed half a page of gibberish lol

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in

What about the hrdps? Its not terribly different than the nam but seems thumpier

[EasternLI]

I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie

[allgame830]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s time to use the mesoscale models from here on out. Follow the tracks of the midlevel lows, not the surface features, they will determine where/when the changeover to sleet and subsequent dry slot happens. I would definitely follow the NAM when it comes to showing the progression of the midlevel warm nose, we are now in its “wheelhouse” time frame for that, the only thing that model actually excels in

Yeah we are all pretty sure you said that about the NAM like 5 times yesterday! 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie

I still wouldn't trust it. Seems wonky since yesterday 

[EasternLI]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I still wouldn't trust it. Seems wonky since yesterday 

Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What about the hrdps? Its not terribly different than the nam but seems thumpier

The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Not saying I trust it. Just saying I'd take it lol

Well yeah me too and the rap

But not sure why the ukie has had these weird runs

[Snowlover11]

8 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I would sign right now for the 6z Ukie

Image?

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Image?

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well yeah me too and the rap

But not sure why the ukie has had these weird runs

I think its playing games in the mid levels as its transitioning to the offshore low

[sussexcountyobs]

And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump?

[EastonSN+]

Looked st the models this morning 

Going with 6 to 10 for CPK.

Good news is the sleet will make the pack even stronger/last longer. 

[BoulderWX]

Mt Holly finally coming around. Slashed totals big time which is the right call - just took a while. 

[SACRUS]

 

06z icon

 

QPF

 

SNow

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Superintendent is a power position like the mayor; I had one who sent home flyers saying they don’t close for snow in places like Michigan so we don’t either. We’d be open when no one else was. Half the teachers would be out and I had to cover their classes and mine. So I decided to call out as well. Was glad to leave that district.

It happens in my job too as I have another power position.

 

Half the time we deice, we dont have to. It costs thousands if dollars, wastes 15-30 mins, and spreads a ton of toxic chemicals.

I often bypass the process when its not needed by a simple wing check. but in this day and age, you better be confident im your decision. You better be right in your decision. You better be in control of your decision, and you better be in the air safely and quickly in your decision.

 

When it involves 1000 school kids you can’t say any of.

[SACRUS]

06z UKM


QPF

Snow:

 

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

06z UKM


QPF

Snow:

 

Uk has been showing a snow hole over nyc gor like 6 runs lol

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

And of course on the coldest day of the year, pre snowstorm, my heat upstairs isn't working. I think it's the circulator pump?

First guess is the zone valve, if you have multiple zones. 

[SACRUS]

 

And in actual weather there she blows

 

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The HRDPS is the high res RGEM. It gets good closer in. I’d start following it at 0z tonight

You were right on this one. Starting to think closer to 6 before the flip but will range 6 to 10 in case the initial thump is impressive. Is that what your thoughts are?

[SACRUS]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Uk has been showing a snow hole over nyc gor like 6 runs lol

British embassy asked the Met office to go gentle on the city - there has been a tendency on UK and GGEM but it doesnt have much other support QPF has been amazingly consistent in the >1.00 inch range (LE)

[ILoveWinter]

Seems like we are narrowing in on around 8-10 inches for CPK. I'd be happy with that, especially since it will have staying power for all of next week which is highly unusual

[CentralNJSnowman]

11 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Mt Holly finally coming around. Slashed totals big time which is the right call - just took a while. 

WSW is showing 7-13 for me. That’s still very aggressive, but much more reasonable than what they had yesterday.  I’ll be very happy if we manage 7 or 8.