Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Joe4alb]

upper lvls on the nam show less ridging along the coast should hopefully lead to a faster transfer to the coastal low and prevent some of that mid-level warming

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We've already had three events in many parts of our forum of 6 inches this winter alone. Unless you just moved here, I really don't think many people think that even with the last four milder winters.

should i believe you or my lyin eyes at the supermarket......

[MJO812]

Nam is colder and precip comes in way earlier than the other models.

[Stormlover74]

Nam looks great. A hair weaker but colder

[Franklin0529]

And it's much drier 

[SACRUS]

1/22 18z NAM

 

 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, Joe4alb said:

upper lvls on the nam show less ridging along the coast should hopefully lead to a faster transfer to the coastal low and prevent some of that mid-level warming

 

Yup. The further south and east the CA wave gets before it gets scooped up the better

In this run, more of it escapes the influence of the trough diving behind it, so it doesn’t turn the corner as much, which results in demonstrably lower heights in the east

[Snowguy66]

12 hours ago, Prue11 said:

Atleast 1/3 of the United States is under a winter storm watch/warning 

That was me that said most of the forecasted long duration events don't come to fruition.  Hoping that I'm wrong with this one.  

[Winterweatherlover]

Still snow at 7:00 pm Sunday on the NAM, mixing at 10:00 pm but precip looks mostly done.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

And it's much drier 

Looks mostly the same .75 to 1" by 0z

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

[Winterweatherlover]

Pivotal Weather - NAM: Total Snowfall (Kuchera) - Northeast US

 

Still snowing north of NYC and into SNE 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

over an inch of liquid 95% snow for NYC, if anything seems like it upped precip a bit.

[ForestHillWx]

To my untrained eye the models are having a difficult time determining the location of the primary before the transfer; the ensemble means are clearly south compared to the ops. The next step is determining how much energy might phase as the GFS is chasing lp centers off the coast; the Euro less so. 

As we get closer I am looking for the transfer to be closer to the VA/NC border, with the primary dying off in southern or central W.V. To me, that will signal a solid storm. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

So it only snow from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol

It start Sunday morning 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 18z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

Kuchera is near a foot

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

So it only snowing from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol

I was tracking if/when the changeover happens. It definitely will snow a lot earlier in the day on Sunday.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Pivotal Weather - NAM: Total Snowfall (Kuchera) - Northeast US

 

Still snowing north of NYC and into SNE 

Yeah still snowing up in these parts. Dry slot makes it up to NYC 

[winterwarlock]

nam is 6-12..thats a decent forecast

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

It start Sunday morning 

How he worded it was confusing.... made it sound like started at 7 pm ended at 10.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

So it only snow from 7 pm to 10pm?? Do you wanna redo that comment? Lol

It starts like before 7am on Sunday according to the NAM and does stop until 1am Monday. I definitely could see future runs juicing up the QPF a bit. Some localized areas could see 16-20" just not sure where. 

[Snowlover11]

Way drier than 12z brutal dry slot up to nyc

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Kuchera is near a foot

 

Yeah im not a fan of kuchera but its probably better than 10:1 for a portion and worse for a portion with sleet so i went 10:1 as a whole (model foreast-wise) 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Way drier than 12z brutal dry slot up to nyc

way drier is an exaggeration... it shows 1.1QPF for the city and mostly the whole forum is at 1" QPF or higher and its colder and a bit further south which would guarantee more snow. So its a better run in my opinion! 

[Brian5671]

1AM monday I don't really see a dry slot.   The coastal hopefully takes over and flings some moisture back

[wthrmn654]

Mount Holly giving some more details on there maps. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18x RGEM 

 

[Jt17]

nam is 6-12..thats a decent forecast

No it's not warlock. It's 10-15


.

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Nam coming in flatter/colder. Keeping up with the theme of the day so far 

Yup, cooled a touch across our area. Pretty solid CNJ north with sleet and dryslot at the end. Very curious if there would be any snow on Monday from that trof back to the west.