Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Mail Man]

Just now, MJO812 said:

H5 is insanely different and went towards the gfs. What a big change.

As of now it caved a bit towards the GFS.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, psv88 said:

Euro fail eh? Yikes 

This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east.  Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss.  That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right.  This one however is subject to big moves still.  I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.

[kat5hurricane]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed we need some follow through. This could be off hour run nonsense 

That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution.

[winterwarlock]

Model noise

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

That's what I'm thinking, 0z will be way more telling but regardless this is exactly the type of shift we needed to give some credibility to the GFS solution.

Yeah I have to see a GFS hold and another Euro shift to the west.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

As of now it caved a bit towards the GFS.

It caved alot at h5. Eps is doing the same. 

[MJO812]

Wow eps big time shift to gfs

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It caved alot at h5. Eps is doing the same. 

The phasing does look better so far over at 18z EPS

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Ok, I might be eating some major crow here. I did not see this happening with the Euro AT ALL, it has hardly waivered for days. It could be a windshield wiper effect when it corrects back east eventually but this is a surprising turn of events. Then again 18z runs tend to be wonky so not sure how serious this shift is.

correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about.

[Wxbear25]

I’ve been trying all day to tell people, it’s not like the pattern needed to fundamentally change to get us there

Now, just because the 18z runs trended well doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but still it just goes to show how relatively small adjustments early on can turn into major changes down the road

[EasternLI]

There seems to be a common theme between the higher impact runs. The confluence to the NE is backing off more. Allowing some higher heights out ahead of the ULL and a closer to the coast track. Keep it coming. 

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Model noise

most likely

[Nibor]

Substantial changes at 500 mb on the EPS.

[Wxbear25]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about.

Who says it’s done trending? I think there is a northward limit, mind you, and the most likely event in the case of a hit is those coastal areas, but still I’d think anywhere from the coast to like Poughkeepsie is still in the game

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

There seems to be a common theme between the higher impact runs. The confluence to the NE is backing off more. Allowing some higher heights out ahead of the ULL and a closer to the coast track. Keep it coming. 

That and closer interaction between the two western waves is what we want

[NEG NAO]

 

[nycsnow]

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Model noise

ANd if not? Euro isn’t the euro it used to be. No models are good anymore can’t discount any of them. Euro has been all over the place 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

most likely

How is this noise ? Some of you post nonsense.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

correct me if i'm wrong, but even at best this is a classic nj shore long island event that would give a few inch crumbs to many of us north of the driscoll bridge, right? and that's if it even happens. and i gotta say, this is still kinda far out to get excited about.

I do think probably this has a west edge extreme maybe like December 09 or so as far as big amounts.  I think even if it works out something like 50-75 miles west of the 18z Euro Op is probably the best doable at this point.

[Blizzardo]

Convective feedback, we toss! 

[MJO812]

This is gfs like

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Model noise

The eps is stupidly northwest too lol

[Mail Man]

EPS looks pretty damn good.

[hudsonvalley21]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is still a small piece or two from going 75 miles west of that Euro run or 100 miles east.  Its why I said earlier today this one was 75-25 miss vs 3 weeks ago that was 95-5 a miss.  That event at this range just needed way too many things to break right.  This one however is subject to big moves still.  I think we could easily see a crazy swing one direction or another the next 2-3 cycles.

Recon information is inputted. I think there is some more info to be put in yet. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs coming up.

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Convective feedback, we toss! 

Which is what even the NWS said about the first GFS run to show the boxing day blizzard.  

[nycsnow]

Model noise probably 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

Recon information is inputted. I think there is some more info to be put in yet. It will be interesting to see the 00z runs coming up.

The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board.  Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro

[brooklynwx99]

this is one of the biggest shifts I have ever seen from the EPS at this range. dumbfounding

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is gfs like

Ohhhh a lot of those have that sexy, sexy loop look

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Which is what even the NWS said about the first GFS run to show the boxing day blizzard.  

I remember reading that AFD. And then the Euro came on board lol