Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Stormlover74]

Wow

[EastonSN+]

Better:

GFS

RGEM

Worse:

NAM

ICON

Held:

GFSAI

[Wxbear25]

Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold.

I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Better:

GFS

RGEM

Worse:

NAM

ICON

Held:

GFSAI

RRFS was definitely worse 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow

I definitely think we pound heavy snow for a while on Sun morning/afternoon. That's a ton of moisture coming north and being lifted. 

[EastonSN+]

Updated.

Better:

GFS

RGEM 

HRDPS

Worse:

NAM

RRFS

ICON

Held:

GFSAI

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold.

I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee

LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm.  Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I definitely think we pound heavy snow for a while on Sun morning/afternoon. That's a ton of moisture coming north and being lifted. 

There’s going to be a 6-8hr window where rates are at least 1” per hour. From about 15z to 00z.

[steve392]

What are the odds of some thunder snow and lightning? 

[MarcmmKU]

58 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Can’t catch a break. Rain is slowly making its way into the conversation, especially for LI. Hard to believe given the arctic airmass ahead of it, but we’ve seen this happen before. Just goes to show that getting the perfect storm is nearly impossible for the immediate coast. 

and yet Florida pulls a 10" right down to the beaches. We are so effing cursed lmfaooo

[wishcast_hater]

URGENT WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE – WINTER DISAPPOINTMENT DESK

ISSUED: Immediately, because hope is fragile

SUMMARY:
A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region. Forecast confidence remains high for heavy snow potential, followed by a dangerous transition to sleet, freezing rain, or the ultimate betrayal: plain rain.

⸻

HAZARDS:
• Initial excitement from model runs showing 18–30 inches
• Rapid emotional destabilization as warm nose appears
• Keyboard smashing, doom posting, and refresh-induced psychosis
• Statements such as “this storm is dead” at T-72 hours

⸻

SUICIDE WATCH (METEOROLOGICAL): IN EFFECT
A Snowlover Emotional Crisis Watch is in effect for the duration of the event.

Residents are advised:
• Do not do anything rash based on one model run
• Step away from social media during the sleet phase
• Remember: one band can still save the storm
• Refrain from declaring winter “over” before March

⸻

TIMING:
• Snow: Hope Phase
• Sleet/Freezing Rain: Anger Phase
• Rain: Acceptance (or complete meltdown)
• Post-storm: “Next system looks promising” Phase

⸻

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:
• Touch grass (or snow, if available)
• Hydrate
• Do not fight family members over 850 mb temps
• Seek professional help if you start trusting the GFS blindly

⸻

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Low on precipitation type
High on emotional damage
 

[Stormlover74]

Ukie held serve i guess. Its a mess...drier and has snow to Delaware with 552 thickness

[winterwarlock]

Qpf cut on gfs moving to euro

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 18z UKMET total QPF

 

 

Total Snowfall / Sleet:

 

 

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm.  Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose."  On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross.  If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

[BoulderWX]

This is becoming less exciting lol

[Prue11]

Can we all just relax and enjoy what we get. We are all going to see a 6”+ event in the tri state area with the exception of maybe far southern coastal Jersey. A few model runs and more and more people are ready to throw in the towel. I’m grateful to even be tracking this storm where last year we sat here with noting to look at 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/23 18z UKMET total QPF

 

 

Total Snowfall / Sleet:

 

 

 

 

Something's off here-it gives me 7" of snow at 10-1 ratio but 0.5" liquid. CT coast 0.4" but same snow. Again weird precip hole. 

[kat5hurricane]

53 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

18z is a waste of time imo. 12z and 0z usually tell the picture. I liked 12z today - hopefully 0z is less all over the place


.

I was going to say this. 18z and 6z are generally pretty wonky, I'd put more stock into the 12z and 0z runs

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/23 18z UKMET total QPF

 

 

Total Snowfall / Sleet:

 

 

 

 

Ukie tick colder? Forget the weird snow hole, seems like it didnt bump north

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Something's off here-it gives me 7" of snow at 10-1 ratio but 0.5" liquid. CT coast 0.4" but same snow. Again weird precip hole. 

Yeah its all funky 

[Uniblab]

5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose."  On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross.  If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.

Or warm tongue. 

[Nibor]

The Ukie has a weird dry slot that rides the 546 line. 

[Santa Claus]

9 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

This is becoming less exciting lol

it’s a neat system to track

[Wxbear25]

12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

LI is always on a razors edge. The warm nose never fails-it has hindered many a storm.  Very rarely do we have storms on LI that do not get the warm nose

That seems anecdotal, more than anything. Surface temps are almost always an issue on LI, save for storms like this with a frigid antecedent airmass and a high which, while not perfectly positioned, will still help to turn winds more northerly than otherwise.

Regardless, in this particular storm LI is basically the northern extent of the warm nose, so a small shift south will make a difference. In a system where the warm air is forecast to blast into CT 2 days out, you're more or less screwed.

[psv88]

All this long island debbie downer talk is silly. 

We are likely headed to a 40" plus season. We've had many great all snow blizzards in the past 2 decades.

If you want to live somewhere that gets all snow events for the 5 days a year it matters, go for it. Otherwise, enjoy whatever comes. 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

That seems anecdotal, more than anything. Surface temps are almost always an issue on LI, save for storms like this with a frigid antecedent airmass and a high which, while not perfectly positioned, will still help to turn winds more northerly than otherwise.

Regardless, in this particular storm LI is basically the northern extent of the warm nose, so a small shift south will make a difference. In a system where the warm air is forecast to blast into CT 2 days out, you're more or less screwed.

Absolutely anecdotal. 
 

I’ve seen this movie plenty of times.  The warm nose or tongue is disregrded 4/5 days out because “the airmass  is so cold” only for it to show up inside of 48 hours and dramatically alter the expected outcome. 
 

A lot of things have to occur in order for LI to have an all snow event.

For context, I’m in Melville LI

[Wannabehippie]

35 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Man, Long Island is on a razors edge. Close enough where its still feasible a small change in track makes a huge difference but still, models almost always underdo mid-level warmth and low-level cold.

I'm sticking with a general 8-12 island wide though... counting on the thump coming in like a banshee

Coastal areas are always on the edge in Miller B systems. They need a pure Miller A tracking just off the coast, no inland primary.

 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/23 18z UKMET total QPF

 

 

Total Snowfall / Sleet:

 

 

 

 

Would happen to have 12z?

Hate 10 to 1 miss represents southern areas.

[WIN]

1 hour ago, hooralph said:

NAM RETIREMENT PARTY

LOL! This easily the best post of the day.