Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SACRUS]

[Snowlover11]

18z definitely not delivering the goods. Yikes the nam shifted like 85 miles with the warm surge. Lol

[mob1]

What an ugly 18Z suite so far. If it looks the same at 0Z, totals will have to come down by a lot. 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

[NJwx85]

Also, the 18z 3k NAM is not bad North of I-80. Even losing some to virga, I counted 17 hours of moderate to heavy snow before any mixing takes place for my area. Basically 12z Sunday to 03Z Monday. And after 05z it’s pretty much drizzle from the Suffolk County line West.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Also, the 18z 3k NAM is not bad North of I-80. Even losing some to virga, I counted 17 hours of moderate to heavy snow before any mixing takes place for my area. Basically 12z Sunday to 03Z Monday. And after 05z it’s pretty much drizzle from the Suffolk County line West.

N and W of NYC do fine-the cutbacks are city, LI and alot of NJ

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 18z RGEM today QPF storm

 

 

Total SNow / Sleet fr rrain (10:1)

[NJwx85]

ZR on ICON

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

N and W of NYC do fine-the cutbacks are city, LI and alot of NJ

Yeah but it’s awfully close now. The JP zone has shifted to up near 84.

[wxman]

On the very slightly brighter side, Reggie improved slightly for most of NJ.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 18z ICON total QPF storm

 

 

Total Snow / Sleet / Frz rain:

[mob1]

RGEM is fine, stops the bleeding for now. 

[Rmine1]

Can’t catch a break. Rain is slowly making its way into the conversation, especially for LI. Hard to believe given the arctic airmass ahead of it, but we’ve seen this happen before. Just goes to show that getting the perfect storm is nearly impossible for the immediate coast. 

[SnoSki14]

I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam could be one of those NAM'd runs but opposite. That model isn't reliable! 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

ZR on ICON

All that and my house is still in the blue snow,so is upper manhattan. The type of storm that cuts along i-95/north snow..south/ice.

[jm1220]

RGEM looked like it held serve. Bottom line is we're going to be paying close attention to the oncoming snow shield early Sun morning and hoping it comes in like a wall. Shredded crap and we might barely make it to the low end of forecasts (I'm talking for I-80, city and coastal areas). The wraparound stuff on Monday to me looks like a longshot and again something that would favor SNE. if the primary drives that far N and wrecks the mid levels, we just get the dry slot and whatever coastal redevelopment would be too far north. It's very unlikely this will be the lame usual SWFE but if you're expecting 12"+ in the city I'd start preparing for disappointment. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam could be one of those NAM'd runs but opposite. That model isn't reliable! 

It's good for verifying mixing but only in the short range. It's not reliable beyond 36hrs

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Can’t catch a break. Rain is slowly making its way into the conversation, especially for LI. Hard to believe given the arctic airmass ahead of it, but we’ve seen this happen before. Just goes to show that getting the perfect storm is nearly impossible for the immediate coast. 

We need for the big coastal storms to come back-we had plenty of great storms/outcomes when we had those. This will be fine and I highly doubt it plain rains anywhere away from maybe Montauk but this type of system will always relatively suck for us here. 

[MarcmmKU]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is this slowly becoming a 4-6 inch snow event for the city? NAM always does this not sure if it's right or wrong!

Honestly that's not off the table. Miller b setups rarely actually deliver for the I95 coastal plain

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Also, the 18z 3k NAM is not bad North of I-80. Even losing some to virga, I counted 17 hours of moderate to heavy snow before any mixing takes place for my area. Basically 12z Sunday to 03Z Monday. And after 05z it’s pretty much drizzle from the Suffolk County line West.

i noted earlier my ceiling over the years for this kind of setup was about 5-6 inches in my area. at least for the 35 years i've been paying attention. 

[Brian5671]

RGEM holding is huge.  Icon a tick north-but looks like a burp run on the NAM hopefully

[Snowlover11]

Starting to see the typical south vs north here. For example it could very well be JFK gets 8, The city 10”, Bronx 12” Westchester 14” etc.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

We need for the big coastal storms to come back-we had plenty of great storms/outcomes when we had those. This will be fine and I highly doubt it plain rains anywhere away from maybe Montauk but this type of system will always relatively suck for us here. 

The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. 

Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO

[SnoSki14]

Out of curiosity does anyone have sleet/ZR totals from the Nam. Curious to see the ice outputs 

[Juturna]

See where the battleground sets up tomorrow and extrapolate.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, mob1 said:

What an ugly 18Z suite so far. If it looks the same at 0Z, totals will have to come down by a lot. 

The RGEM got better.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Starting to see the typical south vs north here. For example it could very well be JFK gets 8, The city 10”, Bronx 12” Westchester 14” etc.

That's about what I'd go with. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM holding is huge.  Icon a tick north-but looks like a burp run on the NAM hopefully

RGEM got better.