Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[jdj5211]

I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.

One thing it may be picking up on, which we’ll see in the 0z runs coming up, is an overall slower evolution of the system. It’s slowed down each of the past few runs. That slower system could ultimately cause the GFS solution to be correct.


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[WeatherGeek2025]

isn't this the same snowstorm that a week or so ago GFS had 70 inches for someone in northern Pennsylvania?  someone could end up with 36 inches if we get a big storm like the GFS!

[eduggs]

Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours.

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Need to see the other models move towards it before I bite

Oh I agree. 

[wthrmn654]

19 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

15:1 may happen for a short time but I think 12:1 or 10:1 is more realistic 

They said start at 15:1 then go to 12:1 in heavier bands 

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours.

Yeah don’t like the look at all 

[MJO812]

John Marshall

[rickymortyx]

A changeover is inevitable here, but most of the forum should see a good dump anyways. Most solid setup I've seen in quite some years. Daytime snow as well.

[ag3]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it.

 

We are going to see mostly snow. 

[ag3]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours.

Who gives a fuck what the 18z Ukie says.

[rickymortyx]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah don’t like the look at all 

Relax. If there's a mix as far north as Morristown, it'll be at the tail end. You won't see hours and hours of mixed precipitation. 

There'll be a minimum of at least 6".

[Snowlover11]

18z Euro AI

 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z GEFS total mean QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet mean (10:1)

 

Lean LP

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z Euro AI AIFS total QPF storm

 

Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

[eduggs]

ECM-AI looks great! At worst it's a hold but it looked a hair flatter and colder. It can't resolve warm layers so they'll be more sleet on the southern edge than shown, but I trust its synoptic representation more than the GFS. Clearly a lot more amped than the GFS but it suggests NYC can approach the higher end of the 6-12" as opposed to languishing towards the lower end.

[EastonSN+]

MA forum said EURO AI was a tick south and transfered sooner.

[Prue11]

Nick Gregory from fox 5 had a general 9-12+ for the entire tri state. Central and South Jersey less due to more mixing. I like that call a lot 

[Roger Smith]

My early take is 18-24 inch potential across parts of e PA, n NJ and se NY, into n CT and central MA.

Brief mixing issues south of that axis may intrude into parts of metro NYC near end of event, but even so, would expect 14-16" EWR, 10-13" NYC and JFK, 12-15" LGA and ISP. Can see how all of those could be a bit higher although getting NYC higher involves both (a) more snow and (b) somebody to measure more snow.

Thinking I might start up a forum-wide storm snowfall contest for this one, would have an 18z Saturday closing time for entries. Look for it ...

[Prue11]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

John Marshall

Pretty much the same map nick Gregory posted 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 18Z

Total QPF / Snow/Sleet (10:1)

NAM (84H): 1.2 / (9.7)
RGEM: 1.1 / (7.0)
GFS: 1.4 /  (13.5)
GEFS: 1.5 / (12.8)
Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / (12.1)

Updated

[ag3]

8-12” is a lock. If we mix, that’s where we end up, which is still a big time storm.

If we don’t mix or mix later, 12”-24”+ is possible.

Stop stressing. A large snowstorm is coming.

[SACRUS]

1/22 18z Euro Total QPF storm

NYC :  1,2

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

9.2

[Franklin0529]

Euro trending towards the GFS dying that primary out faster. Been the theme of the day. Couple more ticks like that an it's showtime!!! See y'all at 9pm for the nam

[jm1220]

I wouldn’t go higher than 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to I-80 right now because of uncertainty and models like the RGEM. It’s possible the GFS is right but it’s wiser to hedge toward how SWFEs usually are which is they try to amp and trend north unless there’s the brick confluence wall to stop them, and sneaky warm layers that try to move in quicker than expected. But the GFS is another possibility if we can catch a break with a further south transfer and decent coastal development, in which case those 12-18” amounts really can happen. North of the city especially I-84 corridor I think is a lock for 12”+. We’re lucky this is a SWFE setup where it’s running into a huge overrunning dome/high pressure which means even the amped models dump 6-8” before changing over and again-the sleet will definitely have its own impact and thicken up the snow pack. 

[NJwx85]

I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change. 

[psv88]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change. 

Agreed. 

[wxman]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1/22 18z Euro Total QPF storm

NYC :  1,2

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

9.2

What site did you get that map from?  Thanks!

[allgame830]

Seems like the QPf is slowly increasing. Does anybody agree??

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agreed. 

I’m hoping we get 12+ out here. Seems like a 50/50

[Jt17]

Seems like the QPf is slowly increasing. Does anybody agree??

Yes and gently trending towards a colder solution like GFS...


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