Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SACRUS]

 

 

Tue night ice box

 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs is not backing down. It's most likely wrong but it hasn't really budged much at all. Give it that

GFS is a top tier model. Care to elaborate why you think it is wrong?

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This is where we say the GFS is a good model and that it nailed such and such event

You mean when the GFS was the only model showing any snow for last weekend, the EURO was way offshore, and we all got snow?

[TriPol]

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. 

[Blizzardo]

Someone please post the old "Mother Of God" picture please... Pretty please? From the old days... Lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

I'm 50 miles north of NYC in orange county NY. It's been a good season so far with 26.3 inches here, but I wouldn't call it great. It this weekend plays out well it will lean in that direction. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. 

Boxing day was not 100% snow. I even mixed briefly in western nassau where i was living at the time.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Wed morning 

[donsutherland1]

With most of the 18z guidance now in, I have no changes from my thinking following the 12z model cycle.

In general, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. Moreover, the storm will likely reach at least Category 3 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). Further, this could become the first storm since the January 22-24, 2016 blizzard to bring 6" or more snow to all of the following cities: Boston, Baltimore, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. 

it appears that a good initial estimate for storm total snow and sleet in New York City and nearby areas will fall in the 6"-12" range. Areas to the south and east of New York City and its nearby suburbs could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. A reasonable floor for New York City is 5". A reasonable ceiling is 14".

There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly overnight and tomorrow. At that time, there should be convergence toward a consensus among the models. Estimates could be revised based on the subsequent guidance, as needed. 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

.

This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though. 

[EasternLI]

That was a pretty sweet 18z GFS. Better timed phasing and that's why you want to see the coastal take off sooner and not later. It shows what's possible if that can happen. That's all that run really said to me. But at least there's still hints of that happening on any guidance too though. Let's see what the euro's got at 18z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It transfers a lot faster. This is the best case scenario 

It'd be 14-20" pretty much area wide

that would match my snowmap 

[JonClaw]

My wife in EM says that Mamdani will have NYCPS go remote Monday.

[liwxfan]

GFS for the win! Lets bring this home baby!

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS develops the coastal further offshore which helps keep everyone snow

It transfers it earlier/further south which keeps the mid level warm air away. And puts us in a pivot zone where we don’t dry slot and the coastal snow takes over. That’s another consequence of a primary driving into Buffalo-the 700mb layer dries out and we get the dry slot. GFS has been consistent I’ll give it that. 

[Wxbear25]

GFS is the absolute best case scenario for the NYC subforum lol

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS is a top tier model. Care to elaborate why you think it is wrong?

I mean it's like 4th in verification score. An no other model shows anything remotely close to this. When the GFS is on its own it's probably best to just ignore it. I pray it's right but I have my doubts

[winterwarlock]

well even as we laugh at the GFS it does matchup with what Mt Holly is forecasting in NJ

[weatherpruf]

48 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People always bash the NWS but in my view they often do a stellar job, at least for out here. Many times they absolutely nail a forecast which is hard to do. Yes, some forecasts are blown, or maybe only the low end of a warning verifies, but overall i think Upton does a terrific job.

they can have a hard time getting wind speeds and duration right; this is a problem i have dealt with for 50 years.the 15-20 can be closer to 25 or more; the 15-20 can be 10-15. you lose a day thinking it will blow, get out another day and the wind never craps out. as you know, this matters a lot at sea. nvm the direction can be off too; north vs northwest matters; south vs southwest matters. 

[jdj5211]

Someone please post the old "Mother Of God" picture please... Pretty please? From the old days... Lol

There’s been many….which one specifically


.

[Snowlover11]

Gfs is a weenies delight maybe weathergeeks map aint too bad after all

[Prue11]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Tue night ice box

 

I always found it interesting how places liked KY and Virginia are going to be colder than NYC area. Do a this have something to do with nyc area being closer to the ocean?

[mob1]

GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

they can have a hard time getting wind speeds and duration right; this is a problem i have dealt with for 50 years.the 15-20 can be closer to 25 or more; the 15-20 can be 10-15. you lose a day thinking it will blow, get out another day and the wind never craps out. as you know, this matters a lot at sea. nvm the direction can be off too; north vs northwest matters; south vs southwest matters. 

True, marine forecasts are tricky. I rely on the PredictWind app and largely follow HRRR for same day marine winds. I dont think Upton spends alot of time and energy fine tuning the wind forecast for the western LI Sound.

[greenmtnwx]

25 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

I have a home in VT and spend a good part of the year there and travel through New England. Aside from the northern greens, lake belts and parts of the Adirondacks it hasn’t been a great season. Maybe average, below in some areas. Not great in Mass, NH or ME. Even the central greens, Killington etc not great. Cold yes, storm systems and above average snow, not so much.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If I remember correctly, when tracking the Boxing Day Blizzard, we weren't 100% sure if it would stay all snow until 36-24 hours before the storm hit. 

The concern was whether the storm would miss to the East, not p-types.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2010

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS WITH THE STORM PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH PHASING DETAILS OF
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AS THEY COMBINE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW BY SUNDAY...WITH A FULL SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES RANGING FROM
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. THE 12Z GFS...WHILE
LOOKING MOST OMINOUS...WAS NOT FULLY ACCEPTED MAINLY DUE TO
INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH UPSTREAM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHOSE
INTERACTION WILL IN TURN GREATLY INFLUENCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE 12Z ECMWF INITIALIZED THESE FEATURES A LITTLE
BETTER BUT STILL NOT PERFECTLY...AND ITS SFC LOW TRACK SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILE RIDING A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE...STILL LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST GIVEN THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FORCING LOCATED TO THE WEST.

AS A RESULT...THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AND COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS EITHER STRAIGHT CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR A
BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LOW TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO DELIVER ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS TO SOUTHEAST CT AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...LESSER AMOUNTS WESTWARD TO SW CT AND NYC
METRO...AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM
WITH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS STILL NONZERO BUT IS LOW...ONLY
30-40 PERCENT FOR EASTERNMOST CT/LONG ISLAND...AND 10-20 PERCENT
FARTHER WEST. FORECAST DETAILS MAY STILL BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN EITHER DIRECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN THE INTERACTION OF
THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO FORM THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The most gorgeous pink skies out rn..nature's heads up!!. It's def coming guys. 

 

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

GFS is always too progressive overall, kills off primaries too quickly, and sucks at thermal profiles that mesoscale models excel at. I'd be cautious with it when it's so different than other models. 

I'd rather have GFS by my side than Euro since their upgrade a few years back!

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

My wife in EM says that Mamdani will have NYCPS go remote Monday.

i've been retired awhile' do many schools do this now? makes some sense.you don't blow a day that has to be made up; its not perfect; sometimes schools close for mass power outages like sandy. but 94 was a nightmare of school closings that all had to made up; imagine if we'd had remote learning back then....we still did not have ac in the schools, and may 94 was brutally hot.

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

This would be rare. No one on the forum gets screwed. That's why it won't happen as depicted here. Would love it if it did though. 

It used to happen in the 90s but I can't remember many times it's happened since.