It's coming 1/31-2/1

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

18z GFS about 185 miles SE, OTS after dropping some snow on Georgia and the Carolinas.

[nycwinter]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

last storm was way out to see for nyc until it was not..

[nj08822]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Thanks, Don

 

NYC: 1994

February 8	22	14	0.82	7.2
February 9	19	14	0.47	1.8
February 10	19	7	0.00	0.0
February 11	25	15	1.09	12.8

 

 

LGA:

February 8	24	15	0.80	9.2
February 9	20	14	0.34	1.3
February 10	18	7	0.00	0.0
February 11	26	16	0.70	9.6

 

 

EWR:

2/8-2/9: 12.9
2/11:  17 (* many have talked of this to be skewed but SI had similar totals from my recollection) 
 

JFK:
2/8 -9 : 9.5
2/11: 11

The second storm wasn't supposed to hit.  The morning before storm #2, we all woke up with a surprise change in the models.  That was my senior year of high school and we missed about 12 days (to never be made up) because of snow and ice.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, nj08822 said:

The second storm wasn't supposed to hit.  The morning before storm #2, we all woke up with a surprise change in the models.  That was my senior year of high school and we missed about 12 days (to never be made up) because of snow and ice.

The 1st one was not either, it was expected to be south although the morning prior or even 36 hours prior models began making a shift to the north.

[WestBabylonWeather]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Dare I say this is where we want it right now 

[Jt17]

last storm was way out to see for nyc until it was not..

Wouldn't worry about 18z op runs this far out.


.

[Freezing Drizzle]

16 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There was 17” inches where I was.  I was a junior in HS at the time and had never seen something of that nature that I was old enough to remember.  The 70s and 80s were lean times for snow lovers in the NY area.  Snow changed to mixed precipitation during the day before it ended.  My only source of weather info at the time was WINS and WCBS plus TV news at night.  People have it so much better today.

The early 1970s were horrible for snow.  The winter of 1972-1973 had no measurable snow for the area from around Middlesex County to Trenton!

1976-1977 was the bitter cold season, but with only around 25 inches of snow.

[North and West]

1994 Feb 8/9 (10)and Feb 11 (12.8)

One of my all time favorites. My younger son still plays basketball in the gym of the middle school where I watched that storm.


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[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

One of my all time favorites. My younger son still plays basketball in the gym of the middle school where I watched that storm.


.

I never saw snow like that before in Queens. The mounds were unbelievable.

 

And then we got to 2016 and that was what my grandparents talked about when they said they couldn’t find the car

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Tat, I remember you from the old NYC Metro forum.

While reminiscing...how did you do with the great [forgotten]storm of 1978?  Third week of January(?).  It was a blown forecast; it was supposed to change to rain.

I got 16 inches, here.  Ended with a period of freezing rain/drizzle which left a shiny glaze on the surface.  I wish I had a photo.
 

Here's a couple:

 

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 1st one was not either, it was expected to be south although the morning prior or even 36 hours prior models began making a shift to the north.

A Tuesday and a Friday.  Stuck in slow traffic in the snow in the Tuesday storm, with the 1010 WINS guy saying it's looking like we'll have a repeat on Friday, which of course materialized.  Best snow on snow to date for me.  Neither tremendous in its own right, but with both what was on the ground already and what fell on the Friday both being substantial - it was great.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Gefs 

[TriPol]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Excellent. We had this same problem with the last storm. Then it came too far north.

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

need that to go more neutral or negative

[TriPol]

17 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

That's a BIG storm. 

I wonder if there are analogs.

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Gefs 

My opinion on this map and on this map only....Ridge out west not sharp enough and trof too far east and positively tilted and best 500 MB HT departures too far south and east.  Not much downstream to force the trof to start to swing negative in time to make surface feature come up the coast and close enough.  Hence probably why the OP is OTS.

If the above ends up being close to reality not a good look for us.

Having said all that....still lots of time for changes....for better or worse.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

[Tatamy]

22 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Here's a couple:

 

 

Thanks for sharing!

[TriPol]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

Live by the run, die by the run. Try to open yourself up to changes. We've got the entire week ahead of us.

[jerseyshorewxguy]

Excellent. We had this same problem with the last storm. Then it came too far north.

completely different set up.


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[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, JonClaw said:

18z GFS about 185 miles SE, OTS after dropping some snow on Georgia and the Carolinas.

On track I’d say

[MJO812]

Euro AI

[Franklin0529]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

It's nw from 12z an is a hit. I expect the euro to look similar. Running now

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's nw from 12z an is a hit. I expect the euro to look similar. Running now

looks good i just hope that's not the final solution looks a bit elongated and not as strong as recent runs. But it's coming like Rjay said this run confirms it. I will have a snowmap by tomorrow 12z runs 

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

whatever euro Ai shows momentarily will be my forecast for this system. I won't change it!

[MJO812]

Euro is also west

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also west

as far west as the Euro AI ? I think we have the windshield wipers on now regarding the models

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also west

Scrapes the coast at 138 wets of 12z east of 06z.  

[SACRUS]

1/26 18Z Euro 138H

[SnoSki14]

Euro runs are golden this far out. If you factor in the typical NW ticks then we're in a great spot 

If we saw a perfect track now I'd fear the coastal ending up by Buffalo