Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[EastonSN+]

18z so far.

Better:

RGEM

Worse:

NAM

ICON

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The ridge placement out west for this storm wasn't ideal. MJO wasn't ideal either. There's a reason why big snowstorms are a rare commodity here especially in the CC era. 

Good news is pattern actually gets better after this storm. Better PNA and more favorable MJO

When you say here, are you speaking for the entire forum?

[Snowguy66]

I don't even look at 18Z. 

[Jt17]

18z is a waste of time imo. 12z and 0z usually tell the picture. I liked 12z today - hopefully 0z is less all over the place


.

[psv88]

RGEM was better to me. 

on to the next!

[SleetStormNJ]

We ride the lightning here in these types of setups - it's exciting - but folks have to stop see-sawing with each individual model and buying it - I mean we're talking like overreactions of about a 10-15m swing of a mix line and a faux snowmap showing 1-2 inch perturbations here.

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

rgem keeps everyone snow from Bronx and north!

 

i think the actual result will be Staten Island and North!

[hooralph]

36 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Remember, the NAM is being retired.

NAM RETIREMENT PARTY

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

When you say here, are you speaking for the entire forum?

cnj. raritan river, rutgers area.

[weatherpruf]

Just now, hooralph said:

NAM RETIREMENT PARTY

pike's peak was a pimple back then.....

[wthrmn654]

Anything that does fall liquid wise well become frozen........ very bad

[NJwx85]

Through 12z Sunday very little change on the 18z GFS.

[NJwx85]

By 18z Sunday GFS is a tick North. Mix line into South Jersey vs DE Bay.

[EastonSN+]

GFS ticked better!!

Better:

GFS

RGEM

Worse:

NAM

ICON.

[greenmtnwx]

January 1994 ice storm incoming 

[NJwx85]

Overall it’s actually a tick colder by 06z. It also has the coastal about 100 miles further West at 06z Monday and it’s still snowing back to Ohio.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

GFS ticked better!!

Better:

GFS

RGEM

Worse:

NAM

ICON.

Hrdps looks great too. Only goes to 18z but has near a foot in south nj

[CentralNJSnowman]

GFS still better than other models.  Particularly in southern half of NJ where it drops a lot of precip.

[NJwx85]

Great run for everyone. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Rgem..557mm..navgem..ec (aifs) models are all snow as of now!..the gfs has been the leader of the pack so far for globals.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, CentralNJSnowman said:

GFS still better than other models.  Particularly in southern half of NJ where it drops a lot of precip.

This is a far north the mix line gets on 18Z GFS only a few hours then moves east - stronger coastal lp

[SACRUS]

1/23 18z GFS Total QPF storm:

 

 

Total Snow/Sleet Frx ran (10:1)

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Overall it’s actually a tick colder by 06z. It also has the coastal about 100 miles further West at 06z Monday and it’s still snowing back to Ohio.

The continued big improvement was how the western side gets compressed and shoved east before the primary can gain too much latitude. 

 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, SACRUS said:

1/23 18z GFS Total QPF storm:

 

 

Total Snow/Sleet Frx ran (10:1)

You posted precip twice

[SACRUS]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

You posted precip twice

Updated it tnks

[MANDA]

I've seen nothing today that makes me want to change my ongoing forecast for my immediate area and south and east along I-78/I80.

Holding steady with 6-10" for now.  Fully planning on a mix with sleet here and probably a bit sooner than later.  Could be wrong but we'll know for sure in about 48 hours.

If the NAM is still beating this 18Z drum at 00Z this evening and 12Z tomorrow there is going to be some cliff jumping.  Not buying it hook, line and sinker just yet but keeping the option open.

[NJwx85]

Kuchera is 13.2 for NYC.

17.3 for MMU

17.4 SWF

16.4 HPN

11.4 ISP

[SACRUS]

1/23 18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF storm:

 

Total Snow/sleet (10:1)

was 9.2 NYC

[ForestHillWx]

The models are still having difficulty with the primary’s lp center, and the energy involved in the potential phase, before the jump to the coast. We need it to happen south of PA; preferably south WV. 

[wxman]

Just happy Captain Goofy held serve.