Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[wthrmn654]

27 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Color me confused, as the NWS-Philly updated the warnings including now having 6-10" for most of CNJ, but then just came out with the map below showing basically 9-11" for CNJ and it's still in the 8-12" color swath.  I'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO.

 

Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.  

 

That says 225 am.  ?

[RU848789]

23 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'd take the under on 11.6 at CPK

But I'd take the over at Bryant Park nearby if someone else is measuring, lol. 

[Prue11]

[nycsnow]

[MANDA]

Final call for my area and the I-78/I-80 corridor in general. 

I have been riding 6-10" for the last few days.  I'm a little reluctant to change it in the event the NAM is close to reality.  However based on the following I am going to up it slightly:

-There is going to be 3-4 hours of rippage with snow rates over 1" per hour as best forcing and lift moves northward.  The ratios with that are going to be greater than 10:1, likely 12-14:1 for a while.

-Thinking the NAM is slightly rushing the mid level warming and while I still believe sleet gets to I-80 and even north of there eventually, it may not rocket through as per the NAM.

-The 6-10" I'd been going with might still be fine but think the 6" might be a tad low for the bottom amount and the 10" might not quite be enough at the top end.

-NAM is the most dismal solution.  Other shorter range models are suggesting maybe the mid level warming does not get quite to I-80 or it may drift back south once it does.  Not giving high weight to that but it is possible.  Think the mix eventually gets north of the NJ/NY border.

-Once the best forcing and lift passes north of the area the precipitation will be lighter and likely in the form of sleet.  Going with 1 to 1.25" of liquid with about 60% of that (about .68") falling as pure snow - average ratio of 12:1 (8").

Final call: 7-11" along the I-78/I-80 corridor.

Seems like a good low to high end amount.  Think the 12"+ amounts will be mainly confined to central and NW Sussex County and NW Passaic County on northward.

EWR, CP and JFK would go with 7-9".

If some of the colder and snowier model solutions verify my forecast amounts will verify low.

We're pretty much at go time so let the flakes fall where they may.

If I don't see another Kuchera map for a while I'll be happy.

 

 

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Im sticking to 10+ inches for the bronx. fieldston,riverdale,kingsbridge and norwood get a wee bit more.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Im sticking to 10+ inches for the bronx. fieldston,riverdale, kingsbridge and norwood get a wee bit more.

I think 10 is reasonable for the Bronx especially the north Bronx. Wouldn't be shocked if the 1 foot line was near the Westchester/Bronx border in the scenario where things go well. 

[SnoSki14]

Loving my 6-10" call from a few days ago. Obviously areas not far north will have more but looking good right now 

[ILoveWinter]

6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

A 20 to 40 mile jog se is still possible. Things are trending better as the models finally pick up the cold suppression. All layers can warm up but against a solid cold dome,its gonna be tough going warming up any level ..925,700,850 for my location atleast doesn't reach 32f/0c.

I mean yea it's possible it shifts SE but just because it's cold doesn't mean we can't get sleet and your location will likely see this per nearly every model. The big question is timing and how hard the front end thump is. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

I think 10 is reasonable for the Bronx especially the north Bronx. Wouldn't be shocked if the 1 foot line was near the Westchester/Bronx border in the scenarios where things go well. 

Yep all areas mentioned are part of the nw bronx. Cooler areas with coastal elevation involved. We change last in every borderline storm.

[NJwx85]

Nice trend on the 3k NAM

[eduggs]

30 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Just put $500 on the under. Leggooo $$

Don't tell everybody  Don't make them wise. Lots of money to be made of these hyped events 

[Jt17]

Loving my 6-10" call from a few days ago. Obviously areas not far north will have more but looking good right now 

I like 8-12 now with the most recent ticks south.


.

[Rjay]

27 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Ok. Thanks. A Vernon, NJ sounding would be awesome! I don't know how to do it. Lol.

Use pivotal.  You can just click on the map where you're located.   

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012418&fh=3&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

Also, here's a sounding. I think I clicked closer to High Point.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

37 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

In All Upton areas warning level is 6 inches. In mt Holly areas it's 5 inches.

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

That says 225 am.  ?

Thanks, fixed the post...

[nycsnow]

Icon maybe a tick better but it’s the icon so

[SACRUS]

 

18z iCON N

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Yep all areas mentioned are part of the nw bronx. Cooler areas with coastal elevation involved. We change last in every borderline storm.

I'm in southern tip of Yonkers so I'm pretty familiar with the NW Bronx, def more hilly and less urban than most of the city. The biggest difference is in marginal temp surface events, since this is upper levels I don't know how much it helps but having a little extra latitude should help in this setup. 

[North and West]

It's warmer than 12z, sorry.

Big basketball day here, so I like checking in and seeing conflicting reports.


.

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

In All Upton areas warning level is 6 inches. In mt Holly areas it's 5 inches.

That's incorrect.  Mt.Holly is only 5" south of 276/195; 6" north or there and contiguous with Upton...

[EastonSN+]

So far 18z

Better (more snow):

NAM

RRFS

ICON

I am not including CMC or RGEM since they were late 12.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The RGEM is late. Again.

Right now, taking into consideration the early 12z guidance, my thinking is that a reasonable worst-case (least snowy) outcome for New York City is 5" (no real change from previous thinking). A reasonable best case is 12" (down 2" from previous thinking). For now, I'm still thinking that a 6"-12" range for storm total snow and sleet captures the most likely scenarios.  Well north and west of the City, 12"-18" still appears likely. Areas south and east of the City and its nearby suburbs down to the central Jersey Shore and on eastern Long Island are in line for 4"-8". 

As a note, I am not fixated on any single model. My thinking takes into consideration the full range. No model has been dismissed at this time. Moreover, 100% of individual EPS members had a 6" or greater snowfall. I do think that the 12z HRRR was too snowy for New York City, but we'll see what the later guidance shows. By 18z and especially 0z, differences among the various models should narrow dramatically. 

All in all, this will still be New York City's biggest snowstorm in nearly four or perhaps five years. Personally, given the long snow drought, including the record 1,456 consecutive days without a 4" or greater daily snowfall (that includes today), I'll gladly accept the outcome that appears likely. Of course, I appreciate even the smaller events.

Much needed with the long snow drought. I found this out PSU's Weather World interesting:

You can really see how rough it's been around State College as well lately:

[Winterweatherlover]

I wish the RGEM would come out at 18Z but it seems like it won't again.

[EastonSN+]

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

Big basketball day here, so I like checking in and seeing conflicting reports.


.

well, i'm baking cookies. 

[EastonSN+]

[eduggs]

Right now the model consensus has the dividing line between big snows and more modest snow accumulations plus sleet from extreme northern Morris County through northern Passaic, Rockland, northern Westchester, and northern Fairfield. Right now I would take the under on double digit amounts south of this line. Hopefully the last two model runs and then nowcasting shift that line south a bit.

[EastonSN+]

[North and West]

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