Major Hurricane Isaias

[Windspeed]

Satellite continues to improve, and we have a warming clear eye now. Category 3 is looking much more likely. If they don't pull the trigger in the 4AM CDT package, they probably will later with an intermediate advisory.

[Windspeed]

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09
Location: 26.4°N 88.0°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[Nomz]

So far, a complete coup for Google DeepMind

[codfishsnowman]

Well well well...you're down to youre last spin at the slot machine and all red 7s land on the payline

Better late than never..you guys finally got the hurricane many of you were gunning for all season. Congrats. 

Hopefully the storm doesn't negatively impact too many lives and livelihoods.

[Windspeed]

Isaias has intensified overnight. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data showed that the maximum flight-level winds have increased up to 107 kt, with a better-defined eye and a shrinking eyewall. These changes are also present on satellite imagery, with a more symmetric presentation along with a warming eye/cooling eyewall. The available data suggest a current intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.

Isaias will likely become a major hurricane soon with the improving satellite imagery, and it could continue to intensify for the next 12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water. However, a large increase in shear is anticipated before landfall, which will probably cause some weakening to occur. This is a tenuous spot because it would only take about a 6h delay in the onset of the shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore. The new forecast explicitly is a bit higher than the last one, but our best forecast at this time is for a high-end category 2 intensity at landfall, which is about the same as before. Regardless of its exact wind speed at landfall, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains. The wind field is also predicted to grow due to a trough interaction, and some of these impacts will extend well away from the center. After landfall, gusty winds are expected to reach well inland over portions of the southeastern United States.

Isaias has turned towards the north-northeast (020/13 kt), and the hurricane is expected to turn northward and accelerate later today due to increasing flow between an upper trough near the northwestern Gulf Coast and a subtropical ridge extending across the western Atlantic. Landfall is expected to occur within the hurricane warning area Friday night or early Saturday. The new forecast is almost the same as before, very near the Google DeepMind guidance, which has been very accurate for Isaias.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.

2. Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.

3. Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi, and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain. Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of that area later today. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, and prepare for power outages.

4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS:

INIT 09/0900Z 26.4N 88.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 28.4N 87.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH INLAND 36H 10/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/0600Z 35.5N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/1800Z 38.2N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/0600Z DISSIPATED

[Nomz]

Interestingly, the side that will be sheared apart, the south side, is much healthier than the north side right now.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

ATL’s looking worse right now at Duke/GT gametime than Tuscaloosa’s looking even during most of afternoon well before kickoff. Why with all of the warranted concern for GA/AL are the media hardly, if any, talking about any concern about Duke-Georgia Tech in ATL? Can you explain this double standard? Well, I realize way more interest and of course $ are involved with GA/AL, but that’s beside the point of concern about human beings wherever they are.

Duke-GT (and any game in the pathway of the storm) shouldn't be played as scheduled either. Human lives are more important than a football game being played at its scheduled time. You can play the game on Sunday or Monday (or even move it to later in the season, if the teams' schedule allows it). Not ideal, but if it saves lives, it's all worth it.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Duke-GT (and any game in the pathway of the storm) shouldn't be played as scheduled either. Human lives are more important than a football game being played at its scheduled time. You can play the game on Sunday or Monday (or even move it to later in the season, if the teams' schedule allows it). Not ideal, but if it saves lives, it's all worth it.

I know this is banter... but why, because of this?  This is the weather for Atlanta.

[NorthHillsWx]

Eye coming into radar view of KEVX and KMOB now snd it looks very strong 

[NorthHillsWx]

What a tough forecast. You have an intensifying likely major hurricane on final approach and are banking on a decapitation to occur in next 12 hours while the system is still intensifying at the moment. Wouldn’t want to be the one sending that messaging. NHC is doing a fantastic job with it. I still think this weakens to cat 1 by landfalll but NHC noted explicitly they are expecting a high end cat 2 when it crosses the coast now

[NavarreDon]

What a tough forecast. You have an intensifying likely major hurricane on final approach and are banking on a decapitation to occur in next 12 hours while the system is still intensifying at the moment. Wouldn’t want to be the one sending that messaging. NHC is doing a fantastic job with it. I still think this weakens to cat 1 by landfalll but NHC noted explicitly they are expecting a high end cat 2 when it crosses the coast now

Agree with you, NHC even has this verbiage in the 4AM discussion….

Isaias will likely become a major hurricane soon with the improving
satellite imagery, and it could continue to intensify for the next
12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water.
However, a large increase in shear is anticipated before landfall,
which will probably cause some weakening to occur. This is a tenuous
spot because it would only take about a 6h delay in the onset of the
shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore.


.

[olafminesaw]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a tough forecast. You have an intensifying likely major hurricane on final approach and are banking on a decapitation to occur in next 12 hours while the system is still intensifying at the moment. Wouldn’t want to be the one sending that messaging. NHC is doing a fantastic job with it. I still think this weakens to cat 1 by landfalll but NHC noted explicitly they are expecting a high end cat 2 when it crosses the coast now

Also we've seen how storms can maintain higher gusts as they weaken for a time. Plus with the broadening of the wind field inland gusts to 50mph+ will be quite widespread, which is impactful with all the trees

[nycwinter]

we seen this scenario so many times in the gulf a storm suppose to weaken due to sheer actually get stronger right until landfall..

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we seen this scenario so many times in the gulf a storm suppose to weaken due to sheer actually get stronger right until landfall..

But also plenty of situations like Opal 1995, Lili 2002 and Dennis 2005 where the storm collapsed coming in. It could be a high end Cat 1 or even cat 2 at landfall though since it only has so much time to weaken before landfall. Thankfully for surge it’s a smaller sized storm so it can’t build up a huge mound of water. Definitely a tough forecast but hopefully people down there prepped for a stronger than expected storm. 

[kayman]

As a Alabama native, this storm is emulating Opal more than anything else. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes landfall as a category 3 even though the environmental conditions are yielding weakening. Also the fact that college football games are scheduled to be held in outdoor open air stadiums uninterrupted is idiotic. The wind gusts are going to make doing most pass plays impossible to do successfully along with the fields becoming slush/mud pits during the games. These are impending disasters waiting to happen. 

Yes, the tornado and damaging winds are looking to be the biggest threats to AL to SC.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we seen this scenario so many times in the gulf a storm suppose to weaken due to sheer actually get stronger right until landfall..

Through history, the opposite has occurred vs intensifying. The recent ones to intensify had much weaker shear vs what is forecasted. 

[sakau2007]

16 minutes ago, kayman said:

As a Alabama native, this storm is emulating Opal more than anything else. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes landfall as a category 3 even though the environmental conditions are yielding weakening. Also the fact that college football games are scheduled to be held in outdoor open air stadiums uninterrupted is idiotic. The wind gusts are going to make doing most pass plays impossible to do successfully along with the fields becoming slush/mud pits during the games. These are impending disasters waiting to happen. 

Yes, the tornado and damaging winds are looking to be the biggest threats to AL to SC.

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat).

i do agree with you that this could come in like Opal... in the sense that the pressure might rise 25 millibars prior to landfall off its peak.

 

[cptcatz]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Through history, the opposite has occurred vs intensifying. The recent ones to intensify had much weaker shear vs what is forecasted. 

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

[Boston Bulldog]

Remains Cat 2 at the 8am intermediate advisory. A bit surprising to be honest. Pressure down to 958mb

[sakau2007]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

Opal in 1995, Dennis in 2005, and the list goes on.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Boston Bulldog said:

Remains Cat 2 at the 8am intermediate advisory. A bit surprising to be honest. Pressure down to 958mb

Think they are awaiting recon but that is almost undeniably a major at the moment. I’d venture to guess recon emphatically concludes the same 

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

if you want to play that game then harvey andrew  michael and a bunch of other storms did intensify

[CoastalWx]

What a win for GDM weathernextv3. It’s getting scary how good it is. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Through history, the opposite has occurred vs intensifying. The recent ones to intensify had much weaker shear vs what is forecasted. 

Recency bias.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a win for GDM weathernextv3. It’s getting scary how good it is. 

Like I said to you a few days ago, always hedge east when a poleward moving tropical entity is interacting with a mid latitude system....going with the bots was a tremendously easy call. That said, there are no absolutes, so I get the conflicting thoughts by some.

[NavarreDon]

If recon verifies a major before the 10:00AM update will NHC issue a special statement?


.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if you want to play that game then harvey andrew  michael and a bunch of other storms did intensify

With better upper air conditions than this one has. Shear and dry air are making a beeline right into this one. Will it have enough time to weaken a lot is one question but it’s almost certain this one weakens coming in. 

[NorthHillsWx]

HAFS-B has gone from a decapitated,  essentially nor Easter, landfall to a cat 3 with eyewall intact as it crosses the coast. Buckle up coastal residents 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

If recon verifies a major before the 10:00AM update will NHC issue a special statement?


.

Yes they will Don. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Special Statement within the hour.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if you want to play that game then harvey andrew  michael and a bunch of other storms did intensify

Andrew intensified rapidly before landfall in south florida from the east. Stick to making bad sports takes.