Maggie Valley Steve

Flood threat increasing for some.

GSP just posted on X

Just started pouring here with gusty winds.

Looking like our first frost/freeze potential late next weekend.

Mostly steady rain with breezes so far here at the house and 53°. I can hear stronger wind gusts higher up above the house and Popular trees are dumping leaves like crazy. This could mark an early end to leaf peeping season for a lot of areas.

Stay safe down there Don. We're thinking about you from WNC.

GSP put out a nicely done informative discussion late this afternoon to their credit. It offered a lot of details regarding their reasoning and is worth the read.

Fairly significant pressure drop recorded by RECON a couple of minutes ago. Looking more likely we have a CAT 4 now.

Flood Watch issued for all of WNC including the Mountains.

I was part of NWS chat for many years at HGX before moving up here. Keep us posted.

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC. Folks need to be aware of the Flooding possibility with this storm.

High Wind Warning hoisted for the WNC Mountains above 3500 ft from midnight tonight until Sunday morning. Wind Advisory hoisted for the Mountains below 3500 ft for the same timeframe.

They were holding off for another cycle of guidance to address the potential of a Flood Watch. They started that it was too early to address the wind threat with a Wind Advisory in their morning disco. Always too conservative in my opinion, but it is what it is.

Isaias is now a Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 120 in and near the eyewall. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out just about 200 miles from the center.

Yes they will Don. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Special Statement within the hour.

Isaias nearing Major Hurricane status per the NHC 5 AM advisory. They discussed some concerns on when strengthening wind shear actually begin to impact the cyclone. A 6 hour delay on the onset of shear could bring a Major Hurricane landfall near Pensacola/ Ft Walton Beach area late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Local impacts forecast has increased rainfall amounts along the Escarpment and winds may be higher in the Mountains than what GSP mentioned yesterday. GSP in their morning disco mentioned that a Flood Watch might be needed later today. Also, there is a possibility of Wind Advisory tomorrow morning for the Mountains.

GSP updated information just posted.

I don't see that much change in my thinking on rainfall amounts for the Mountains. I am seeing some indication of higher winds, particularly for the Ridgeline and the Valleys as Isaias is absorbed by the trough and transitions into an upper low. Wind gusts to 50 look possible along the Ridges and in the Valley areas gusts to 40 could be possible.

The 5PM Update shows Isaias stronger with sustained winds of 65. Tropical Storm Force wind extend out 60 miles from the center. The track was adjusted further E giving a nod to the AI guidance.

I'm not to concerned about a significant wind threat at this time as Isaias will likely have transitioned to Extra Tropical by the time it makes it to our latitude. Looks like less than an inch near the border and 1 to 3 inches along the Escarpment with a couple of isolated total of 4 to 6 inches in upslope areas. A weak cold front arrives Friday setting up CAD that actually could reduce rainfall amounts. The highest gusts I'm currently seeing are in to 30 to 35 range. I'll take a closer look in the morning for our local Region.

Afternoon updated 5 Day QPF forecast is out.

45 at the house this morning. TS Isaias is strengthening fairly quickly overnight ahead of schedule and the forecast track has shifted E to near Mobile Bay. NHC in their 5 AM discussion stated that the track could shift further E later today and Hurricane Watches are likely this afternoon along portions of the Northern Gulf Coast. Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft will begin low level sampling missions today.

TD 9 was designated by the NHC at 5:00 PM. Currently a high altitude G-IV mission is underway sampling along the Gulf Coast and SE. That new data should be ingested into the 00Z of dynamical models.

92L in the Bay of Campeche is looking better today with deep thunderstorms and appears likely that a Hurricane will develop later this week, possibly early this weekend in the Gulf. Hurricane models suggest landfall along the Central Gulf Coast with Google Deep Mind ensembles clustered further East near the Florida Panhandle. Rain chances do look to increase over the weekend locally.

43 this morning. The Popular trees started dumping yesterday. Everyday there is more colors around the Valley.