Maggie Valley Steve

It sure looks like our Fall weather will continue into mid September. The models are suggesting multiple potentially strong cold fronts pushing in with the next reinforcing shot arriving later next week. I believe it is safe to say summer is over as the daylight gets shorter!

After a low of 48 this morning, I managed to warm up to 72 this afternoon. Currently it's 63 at the house.

Already down to 56 this evening after an absolutely gorgeous day with a high of 72. Looking like the cool Autumn like air continues into Labor Day and the first week of September. It appears that summer has come to an early end for the Mountains. The models are showing several strong early Fall cold fronts into the first several weeks of September!

Already down to 69 here at the house after a high of 73. Looking like an amazing couple of weeks ahead!

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0966 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 211845Z - 220045Z Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across portions of the Southern Appalachians through this evening. Rainfall rates at times may reach 3"/hr which could overwhelm soils, especially in sensitive terrain. Flash flooding is possible. Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud phase micro-physics RGB this afternoon shows a rapid uptick in ice-bearing clouds suggestive of strengthening updrafts into Cbs from NW NC through central GA. These updrafts are associated with deepening convection, and there has been a recent uptick in lightning detection within these storms. This suggests that the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for thunderstorms containing heavy rain, as thermodynamics continues to intensify reflected by PWs measured by GPS between 1.6 and 1.9 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date, overlapped with MUCAPE as much as 3000 J/kg. Despite the relatively recent growth across the area, radar-estimated rainfall rates have already exceeded 1.5"/hr according to KGSP. As the aftn progresses, the CAMs are in decently good agreement in both coverage and placement of activity. It appears likely that convection will become widespread as PWs surge to above 2" outside of the higher terrain. This will support rain rates within thunderstorms that will likely exceed 2"/hr (HREF neighborhood probabilities above 30%) and may reach 3"/hr at times as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall above 0.75" in a few locations. Storms that develop will be of the pulse variety in response to limited bulk shear, but will also move very slowly on 0-6km mean winds of just around 5 kts. This indicates that despite the relatively short lifetimes expected of any individual cell, total rainfall could reach 2-3" in some areas, and this will be most likely where any boundary collisions, storm mergers, or terrain influences can impact the relative strength and motion of these storms. Soil moisture across the Southern Appalachians is generally well above normal as reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm percentiles that exceed 98% in many areas. This has reduced 1-hr FFG to as low as 1-1.5" in some areas, for which the HREF exceedance probabilities peak above 25%. This is in addition to the general sensitivity across this area due to the terrain, as well as within any urban areas, so any slow moving thunderstorm could produce impacts due to flash flooding through this evening. Weiss ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK

Starting to see signs of a significant cool down beginning this weekend and a reinforcing cold arriving next Monday. We could see lows in the 40's even down in Asheville.

For the second day in a row we've had storms nearby, nothing at the house. A weak cold front isoving through and we're 35 days until Fall arrives. Perhaps someone can start our Mountain Fall/Winter discussions. It won't be long!

Because it's weak and ingested a lot of dry air!

Another wet day in the Valley. Temperatures have warmed a bit, but I still haven't hit 80 this month! I'm seeing hits of a fairly strong front arriving next week. Fall is approaching and we continue to loose datlight.

Another wet day in the Valley where my high today was 74. Looks like a potential flooding issue overnight, particularly for the SW Mountains. Below normal highs looks likely until at least the end of the week, I not so sure a return to above normal will return anytime soon. This is the second week of busted forecasts by GSP.

Woke up to 59 here in the Valley. Amazing streak!

What an amazing start to August!

Another day of CAD for the Mountains although the temperature warmed about 7 degrees today ~vs~ the past several days. No rain today, but we'll see what unfolds later this week.

I had a low of 60 this morning. I saw Mt Mitchell had a low of 48 shortly after 7 AM! 51 days until Fall.

66 and moderate rain currently.

No severe thunderstorms here today, but we did have a couple good downpours! Cooler weather ahead with lows in the 50's and highs in the low 70's. Surely Fall is approaching and before long it will be leaf season.

Looks like just about everyone in the mountains got some beneficial rain this afternoon. Just 54 days until Fall!

I've been under two wet cells this afternoon that has brought over an inch of rain and still raining. Luck of the draw today I suppose.

I'm sad to learn of John Burns passing. God bless his family.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0775 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Carolina Piedmont into southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 221629Z - 222100Z Summary...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible across the Piedmont of NC/SC into the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians through late afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and localized 2+ in/hr rates will become likely but much of that rainfall may fall over a sub-hourly timescale leading to rapid runoff. Discussion...GOES East visible and regional radar imagery at 16Z showed scattered showers over far northeastern NC into western NC, embedded within an anomalously moist environment in place over the southeastern U.S. PW values on 12Z RAOBs from GSO and FFC ranged from 2.1 to 2.2 inches, near or above the climatological max for the middle of July per SPC data, and while PW values in the mountains are naturally lower, similar PW percentile values are likely into the terrain. Current cloud cover is likely limiting MLCAPE over the western portions of the Carolinas with 16Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing ~500 J/kg or less, but peak surface heating is still a few hours away. With continued surface heating, short term RAP forecasts show MLCAPE values increasing into the 500-1500 J/kg range through 22Z. The combination of sufficient instability and high moisture (tall/skinny CAPEs) will allow for high short term rain rates via efficient rainfall production. Deeper layer mean flow is oriented from the NW at 5-10 kt, weaker to the south, which should allow for relatively slow moving cells. 1-2 inches of rain in 30-60 minutes will be possible in the stronger cells that develop which could lead to isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. Otto ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

Dying thunderstorm ending a very productive day around the house. It's nice to have patterns of our past!

We got a sprinkle after thundering for an hour. I'm not complaining. We had mostly light to moderate rain most of the afternoon yesterday. I just do not see any relaxing of this persistent pattern into the end of the month. It's less than 70 days before Fall arrives!

Good luck and best wishes on your life move! Looking forward to your pictures and reports from the Big Sky Country.

We're finally getting storms late this evening!

I finally got a tenth of an inch of rain today. It's starting to get mighty dry around the Valley. Hopefully we'll see more chances the next several days.