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Everything posted by kayman

  1. If you know how to get moderators to such then please do! I just know that the posters in MS and AL should be on alert for this significant threat regardless
  2. Yeah, I'm a Birmingham native who now lives in Charlotte. I'm praying for you all including my family members in the Greater Birmingham area tonight. This event looks to be very nasty and potentially a very long night I'm afraid.
  3. PDS Tornado Watch is in effect until 7:00PM Central Standard Time for North Central Mississippi and the majority of the northern half of Louisiana.
  4. A significant threat for a regional severe weather and tornado outbreak is possible this afternoon and evening across Northern Mississippi, Northwestern Alabama. There's a possibility of a couple of long-tracked damaging tornadoes as well.
  5. Hey I'm a frequent in the SE forum. I'm a survivor of the 04/27/2011 super outbreak and follow severe weather closely. If Possible, I'll take it upon myself up create a thread for today's regional severe weather event is need be to update those in the forum. I'll even link it here for you all to cross post. (edited due to autocorrect errors)
  6. The number of rotating supercells in those outer bands that are appearing on the Key West Nexrad radar is disturbing. I see why there is a tornado watch for all of South Florida until 5AM Wednesday morning.
  7. There have been several reports of tornado touchdowns in Iredell County in Statesville with the squall line.
  8. Continuation of prior tornado warnings:
  9. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Southeast Kentucky Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Western Virginia Southern West Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of severe storms will continue to develop and intensify across the region, with damaging winds, some hail, and a few tornadoes possible across the region. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east northeast of London KY to 25 miles west southwest of Anderson SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 184...WW 185... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer
  10. Tornado Warning Tornado Warning NCC023-027-035-045-109-161-061745- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0017.220506T1721Z-220506T1745Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 121 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Western Catawba County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... East central Rutherford County in western North Carolina... Western Lincoln County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Southeastern Caldwell County in western North Carolina... Central Cleveland County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Southeastern Burke County in western North Carolina... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 121 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles northwest of Shelby, or near Polkville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Belwood around 130 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include Cooksville, Northlakes, Propst, Pleasant Grove and Vale. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the specific location where it occurred. && LAT...LON 3582 8134 3580 8133 3580 8131 3575 8119 3527 8158 3536 8177 3588 8148 TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 213DEG 47KT 3540 8162 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ HG First tornado warning for the region in Burke, Caldwell Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, and Rutherford counties
  11. SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast to Ohio Valley and Tidewater region today. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible, with the primary threat expected between late morning and early evening. ...Synopsis... A strongly progressive upper-air pattern will continue through the period, over the CONUS, with the main feature pertinent to severe-thunderstorm potential being the cyclone now centered over the Ozarks. The associated 500-mb low is expected to move approximately east-northeastward up the lower Ohio Valley to the area between EVV-CVG by 00Z, with a trough southward over the FL Panhandle. Associated mid/upper-level cyclonic flow will cover most of the CONUS east of the southern Plains and south of the Great Lakes. By 12Z, the center of the cyclone will decelerate and reach WV, while overall troughing amplifies over the East, from the lower Great lakes to the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, height falls aloft are expected over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies regions ahead of a strong shortwave trough moving inland from the Pacific. Associated shots of DCVA/destabilization aloft -- over weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture -- will support general thunderstorm potential. At 11Z, surface analysis showed the primary low over extreme southeastern MO with cold front southward across the Mid-South and central LA. A wavy warm front was drawn from the Atlantic, east of the Outer Banks, across extreme southern NC near ILM, central SC, northeastern GA, eastern portions of TN/KY, to the lower Ohio Valley and the low. The low should migrate eastward to near HTS by 00Z, with cold front across western parts of VA and the Carolinas, western GA, southern AL, and southern LA. The warm front should reach the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central VA by 00Z then decelerate, with a low developing thereon over the southern Chesapeake Bay region by 12Z. By then, the cold front should extend from that low over the Outer Banks to northern FL. The specific cold-frontal position through this afternoon and overnight -- especially over the Gulf Coast States -- may be rendered marginally to not relevant because of prefrontal convective stabilization that has made southwestern parts of the forecast more complex and conditional with time (see below). However, colder air aloft farther north across northern parts of the outlook areas may compensate for weaker boundary-layer theta-e enough to maintain at least a marginal severe threat. ...Southeastern CONUS and Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected through this evening, shifting eastward to northeastward across the region in the form of mixed modes (quasi-linear, clustered/multicellular, and probably a few discrete supercells). Damaging gusts, at least a few tornadoes, and sporadic large hail are all still possible -- with damaging to severe gusts being the most common type of storm report expected. A large area of severe-thunderstorm potential exists, though more uncertain now on the southwest side. That part of the outlook is complicated by a long-lived, quasi-linear convective system now weakening across portions of southwestern GA and the FL Panhandle, leaving behind a substantial theta-e deficit over parts of AL and most of MS. Though now weakening, this activity has progressed across the region faster and/or much better-organized than almost all synoptic and convection-allowing guidance has suggested, from 00Z initializations right to the past few hours. For example, the HRRR overnight consistently has been unable to keep up with reality, in terms of being too slow with convective speed and too fast to dissipate the complex. The few progs that have maintained a better-organized squall line (e.g., the 00Z high-res FV3 CAM) still were a few hours too slow with convective translation -- but in planar thermal/buoyancy guidance, more-reasonably indicate the stabilizing effects of the wake cold pool, when spatially adjusted eastward. Favorable destabilization between the outflow boundary (which arcs well southwestward offshore from AL/MS/LA) and the cold front now appears more uncertain, though some potential still exists for either: 1. Strong-severe convection to form along/ahead of the cold front at some ill-defined southern rim of the favorable large-scale lift/cooling aloft related to the cyclone, but in a moist layer that is weaker and shallower than earlier expected, and 2. The outflow boundary to weaken enough for prefrontal/low-level return flow (especially above the surface) to result in favorable theta-e advection, especially into the near-coastal southeastern LA to western Panhandle corridor closest to the remnant boundary. Given the uncertainties, and the reasonable lack of substantial/ organized activity over the coastal plain behind the MCS in progs that show it better, unconditional severe probabilities accordingly have been reduced (but not eliminated) in much of the post- convective area. Further refinements are likely in this region as mesoscale trends and later, more-reliable guidance warrant. Otherwise, the forecast remains largely the same farther north into 1. The Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, where the influence of stronger cooling/instability aloft will be more important to convective potential, and 2. Over the eastern lobe of the outlook encompassing portions of eastern AL and GA to the Tidewater area, where a weakened MCS will be less to negligibly influential on destabilization from both diurnal/diabatic and advective processes. The CAPE/shear parameter space, especially near the warm front where enlarged hodographs are probable, still is expected to favor supercells with a relative maxima of tornado potential both away from the most strongly stabilized areas of the morning cold pool, and over parts of the VA/NC Piedmont eastward. ..Edwards/Gleason.. 05/06/2022 The official thread on the Enhanced severe threat for May 6th 2022 across the core of this regional subforum coverage area.
  12. There are multiple tornado warnings in the foothills and Unifour area
  13. There is a solid cold column of air associated with the shortwave disturbance tied to the upper-level low (ULL). It will be very unstable so any precipitation will be mostly snow if it develops around the ULL. It is difficult to forecast for shortwaves as they are situational based
  14. The dry air is causing evaporation pockets in precip at CLT and west Charlotte right now until 2. I'm seeing flurries with sleet again at my place. Another wintry mix band is going to slide in again soon.
  15. I think a deformation band of heavy snow will swing through CLT around 4-6PM as the back end with the ULL.
  16. Most of the CLT lucked up big time with this system with mostly snow and sleet. It's seems to be aside from Ballantyne, Mint Hill, extreme South Mecklenburg County gotten snow & sleet in the city. Those areas are covered in sleet. Whereas, Union County, Anson County, Chester County, and Lancaster County seems to have seen the majority of the freezing rain accumulations in Metro Charlotte.
  17. It's been light snow and sleeting around 26 degrees since 3AM here in SW CLT near the Airport. I have about 2-3 inches on the ground with the roads covered in snow and it's still falling. The dry air as shown in the water vapor imagery will likely dry things out before the freezing rain can for in the west side of Metro Charlotte. I'm sure it's going to wrap up soon across the region as it's starting to evaporate from the radar returns near Spartanburg. Dry air punching in
  18. There's a thread within the SE forum for yesterday and the upcoming threat on 01/01/2022: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56481-severe-weather-12-29-21-and-1-1-21/
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