kayman

The Charlotte DMA local TV media and the Charlotte Observer have been covering it since yesterday. Charlotte is on its own when it comes to weather forecasting. Look at my 1st and 3rd posts here as to why.

This helicity setup shows this could be a repeat of the April 2011 for the Carolinas. Any spacing between the storms or break ups of the squall line could be a strong tornadic supercell or a few tornadic supercells with the right environment that would be for a long-track tornado or multiple tornadoes.

SPC Outlook maps for tomorrow as of the 1 AM update SPC AC 150607 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon. Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon. ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

I remember that exact storm. It's one of several that displays why we need a separate NEXRAD radar and forecasting office here @ CLT Airport. Nobody should be that weather blind to bad weather development because of the weakness of the TCLT radar & distance from the other NEXRAD sites scans. It would be covering the area between the Foothills and Western Piedmont including Charlotte, Gastonia, Hickory, Statesville, Mooresville, Salisbury, Winston-Salem and High Point in NC. Those 4 Upstate counties (York, Lancaster, Chester, and Chesterfield) that are more economically tied and physically closer to Charlotte in SC like areas such as Rock Hill.

I'll be prepped and ready to go to my basement on Monday if I need to. This looks like it will be one that will be developing on top of the Metro Charlotte area from the Hickory/Unifour portion southward towards Shelby in Cleveland County. It will accelerate eastward through the midday-afternoon hours. This is could be bad for the Triangle, Greater Richmond, the Metro Washington area AKA the DMV, and Metro Baltimore. Especially, if there are individual supercells form ahead of main squall line or the line potentially forms as line segments with embedded supercells. Situations setting up like this on Monday is why Metro Charlotte needs a NEXRAD Doppler radar site & its own NWS forecast office to provide better radar reflectivity below 5,000 feet in its region. This would also help the Winston-Salem & High Point side of the Piedmont Triad area as well with better lower-level radar reflectivity coverage.

No bitterness, just need others to do better.

I don't post like that these days, so nope.

The dry slot has closed with banding over Central NC, so the complaining (Raleigh) posters you can stop now. You're getting your "deserved" snow for the 2nd time this season. I still say there is needs to be more Metro CLT representation on here (thank you to the other Metro CLT posters).

Oh really?! It's still heavy snow falling here. There was large flakes blowing out my windows a few moments ago. It's pushing 11" at my house now

It's still blowing sideways with snow as we speak. There are 9.75" here near the CLT Airport in Steele Creek, i.e., Southwest Charlotte.

8" has fallen on the ground at the CLT Airport. 9" observed in Uptown Charlotte (Charlotte City Center).

Mecklenburg is a huge county too. Davidson, Cornelius, Huntersville in North Meck will snow (which are 25-30+ miles from Charlotte City Center (Uptown), but CLT will get nothing at all. They are all a part of the same Metro Charlotte (CSA) area including Hickory/Morganton (Unifour) counties. Snow there in the North, and rain and potential severe on the south in the same Metro here. Topography can play a role in weather and deformation bands setting up more than one thinks.

Like life, favor isn't fair with weather. The same thing happened this time last year with the roles were reversed with RAH and RDU getting snow while CLT was dry slotted.

All I'm going to say this is first time since 2022, CLT has seen consistent snow. I don't know why some Triangle (Raleigh/Wake County) posters are complaining and crashing out about the dry slot. There were reports of snow there 2 weekends ago in Raleigh when it was cold rain in CLT. CLT always gets shafted by the mysterious dry slot more often by these types of coastal systems. It is what it is. The Triangle posters are the majority here. The roles are reversed in this system for the first time in a long time.

There's 8-9" of snow that has across the Metro Charlotte area. I have 8" on the ground here at my place and its still blowing heavy snow since 9AM here. It's North Tryon Street in Uptown Charlotte (Charlotte City Center), and it is confirmed to have 8" of snow observed.

It's now ticking up to 4 inches here. I'm awaiting for CLT Airport to confirm that observation.

There are already 3 inches on the ground here in Steele Creek part of Charlotte. I'm near (less than an mile from) the CLT Airport. We're getting the heaviest band and it's white out conditions outdoors here inside of the I-485 beltway. It's likely the spot to see over 8" to up to 10" in my area. WCNC (off Billy Graham Parkway) & the CLT Airport have both confirmed 3 inches of snow on the ground.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Columbia SC 359 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 SCC025-057-302015- /O.CON.KCAE.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-250530T2015Z/ Lancaster SC-Chesterfield SC- 359 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL LANCASTER AND NORTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES... At 359 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Buford, or 8 miles northeast of Lancaster, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Buford around 405 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Camp Creek Fire Station, Taxahaw, Unity Fire Station, Arrowood Estates, Tradesville, and High Point Fire Station. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to an interior room or closet on the lowest floor of a sturdy building immediately. && LAT...LON 3482 8079 3482 8047 3481 8042 3465 8044 3477 8087 3479 8086 TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 276DEG 30KT 3480 8065 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ This is a tornado warning for Union County, NC, Lancaster County, and Chesterfield County, SC. Of course, the NWS doppler radar hole around Metro Charlotte is causing the velocity reflectivity to be very blurry. The CLT Terminal Doppler is severely limited in range of reflectivity.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 348 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest into Central North Carolina Western and Northern Virginia Southern and Eastern West Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of a surface low where enlarged hodographs and moist low levels will promote a mix of cells and bands of storms. The stronger storms will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, scattered damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Elkins WV to 20 miles southwest of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 347... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central Alabama Northern into Central and Eastern Georgia Western North Carolina Western and Central South Carolina * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A developing broken band of intensifying thunderstorms will quickly move across the Watch area this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts (60-70 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard. A brief tornado or two is possible in addition to an isolated risk for large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Hickory NC to 25 miles southeast of Columbus GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Smith

Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Greensboro, Columbia, Augusta, Savannah have an enhanced damaging wind threat today.

Raleigh/Durham, Richmond, Washington, and Baltimore might see more of threat of tornadic supercells or QLCS tornadic development