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About sakau2007

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    North Shelby County - Birmingham, AL

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  1. My overall concern for this event continues to grow. I know the parameters aren't exactly the same, but this is as close to April 27, 2011 as I've seen since April 27, 2011 for MS/AL. Just look at these STP values and tell me that doesn't bring back memories. Makes me shudder: I get not wanting to be hyperbolic, but at this point emphatically saying this won't be like April 27, 2011 seems to be borderline irresponsible, no? And let's not forget this event looks like there will be prior convection. Some of the radar loops look eerily similar to me showing earlier rounds of convection that we aren't overly concerned about followed by outrageously high STP's later in the day. That is.... exactly what we were staring at on April 27 and the result was absolutely disastrous. The early morning event across Alabama was absolutely underwarned for until the event was occurring. I don't think the atmospheric paramaters were expected to be off the charts that morning (just as they aren't this time around) yet there were still dozens of tornadoes and a vicious line of storms. What is the risk something like that, even on a smaller scale, occurs? I haven't really heard that mentioned at all.
  2. I think saying things like "Events like that happen once every 40 years" goes past being a minor detail. Also, saying April 27, 2011 is not showing up on the CIPS analogs is just... wrong. Out of what... 20,000+ days it has shown up as like the 4th, and 7th "best" analog on various runs. I'm with you that the overall tone of the post is correct. And that for every 50 high risk days, maybe only one will come together just perfect for a 1974/2011 type outbreak. And I do agree with you that he has a nearly impossible job of toeing the line between making people aware without worrying the weather-ignorant public unnecessarily. An analogy I would give is that the US coastline gets struck by a category 5 once every 30-40 years or so on average. If a cat 4 is churning in the Gulf where a favorable environment exists, it would be foolish to say "This won't be like Michael or Camille because events like that only happen once every few decades and it was just a couple of years ago since Michael". The parameters in MS are absolutely in April 27th territory. Now, obviously a lot can go "wrong" between now and then... but to use time between events as a reason that event A will not be like event B is just another take on the gambler's fallacy.
  3. I had to respectfully disagree with James Spann when he made the following post late yesterday afternoon: And to that, I'd say "Bad answer". I responded with the following: Thoughts?
  4. That's a lot of words to just say that "You are right, sustained winds were not cat 4 strength at I-10."
  5. Sure seems like the preliminary wind gust estimates absolutely jive with what I was posting that this thing wasn't a cat 4 at I-10 and wasn't a cat 3 into Georgia. I accept the apologies of several members here in advance.
  6. Yeah. It actually isn't that uncommon for central gulf coast landfalls where the storms are rapidly accelerating northeastward. Opal in 1995 which wasn't quite as strong but moving a little faster caused wind damage into Tennessee.
  7. It's pretty likely it will deepen over the north atlantic... at least for a day or so before it hits cold water and fully transitions into an extratropical system.
  8. Wasn't there an amazing picture from Patricia that showed this? I remember seeing it right after Patricia made landfall in Mexico but never really bothered to research it to see if it was real or fake.
  9. Why can I not respond to people like the ghost of leroy who continue to straw man? He says I’m a piece of work because I noted that some people picked up on a stronger storm before the NHC which is a FACT and I’m not allowed to respond? Seriously?
  10. You've replied to about 15 posts of mine this afternoon and literally not a single one has been an actual response or a refute of a claim I've made. Are you going to try and tell me the NHC had the intensity forecast spot on 4 days out too? Respecting what someone does and critiquing them don't have to be mutually exclusive.
  11. And I wouldn't say they did great. At 96 hours out they missed the intensity by almost 100mph, didn't they?. That's not what I would call great. We can do better. We have to do better. And we will. I am sure because we are getting better every year. The strides we have made in forecasting position has been incredible over the last 30 years. Intensity forecasts have improved too, but I think this shows us that we still have a ways to go. Some outside agencies and amateurs did better than the NHC. Some didn't throw out the HWRF intensity model. Now, granted, people calling for a cat 3 at landfall when the NHC was calling for a minimal 1 may have been blind squirrels finding a nut, but some may have legitimately seen the same things some of the computer models were seeing and incorporated that into their forecasts.
  12. No... I am responding to the man who said that he thought it was smart to not downgrade it based on what the storm had done earlier. I partially disagree with that assessment and I gave my reason why.
  13. They did. A gust was measured to 115mph in Donalsonville. I haven't checked to see what their top sustained wind report was. And I can show you similar wind damage to that from Vero Beach, FL when Hurricane Erin struck as an 85mph category 1 in 1995.
  14. Definitely not disputing the first part of your post. I agree with you. But I do disagree with the second part of your post. I think it is important that even in extreme crisis the public is given the most accurate information possible. "Erring on the side of caution" is not unreasonable on the surface, but I wonder if it does do more harm than good long term. It is possible that there are a lot of people who think they survived a category 4 hurricane 60 miles inland when they actually survived a category 2... which could be disastrous if those people are ever along the coast when the next Charlie/Hugo/Andrew/Michael/Maria/Katrina is bearing down. But that's okay. Reasonable minds can differ. Part of the problem is the whole category system that we use to begin with. While it was great decades ago, I think we know a lot more about storms now that it could be time for an overhaul of the metric based on other factors other than just 1 minute sustained wind averages.
  15. It doesn't look as bad to me either. It's hard to say given it is just tree damage in a picture. It does look similar to what Escambia County, Alabama looked like after Opal though.