“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MegaMike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie looks like my ass after the General Gau’s dinner special. Gfs is on crack. 

Yea, unless the ECMWF/EPS improve at 12z, I think this will be a graze, at best.

Definitely tossing the GFS/GEFS.

[Masswx]

Bye bye storm

[Masswx]

Unless euro gets onboard bye bye storm bye bye winter 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Thank god we don't live in DC - talk about high stakes 

[ORH_wxman]

The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. 
 

We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit. 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

FWIW: while still VERY far away from GFS solution, UKMET 12z vs. 00z changed upper level look quite a bit.

Could be the same issue as past storms with the vort well off the coast...

All these coastals have had stupid double lows or conflicting convection out east.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. 
 

We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit. 

Ya I'm in the same boat .. I'd take a wind driven 4-8" snowfall to end the season though.. As is we need a miracle to get a big dog like GFS has over DC - IF EURO doesn't join us at 12z then it's virtually impossible IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. 
 

We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit. 

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thank god we don't live in DC - talk about high stakes 

If I was there I’d probably sell the gfs pretty easily. I know easier said than done. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. 
 

The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. 
 

The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason. 

And it’s a similar setup too with the confluence that’s been a common denominator with these.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. 
 

The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason. 

YES...I have made this comparison probably at least a dozen times. Seen the movie play out this season before and it's a waste of time that I hope to withdraw from over the weekend.

[dryslot]

There's only so much lipstick you can put on a pig, I bet we start seeing a GFS cave coming up.

[TheBudMan]

12 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Bye bye storm

 

Man @CoastalWx weening his own kid.  You know things are getting thrown against the walls in that house right now.    At least we have May 1  season to look forward to, right @weatherwiz!!!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does this look familiar?

Ocean Storm Poised To Brush Region On Sunday-Sunday Night

Accumulations Largely Limited To Cape & Islands

It appeared on Monday as though the second major winter storm within a week may impact the area with heavy snows, however,  it now appears as though the region will be largely spared.

Synoptic Overview

The ingredients for major storm are still indeed brewing tonight.

 

The two systems are still expected to phase over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, which makes for an ominous set up if one were to take a cursory glance at the chart below.

 

However, as the weekend unfolds, two elements conspire to facilitate a track largely out to sea despite what is prototypically an ideal western CONUS ridge placement for a major northeast US strike.

 

First of all, there is a follow up "kicker" system dropping into the northern plains, which acts to force the lead storm to continue moving along before it can phase proficiently. This prevents the low from gaining as much latitude as it otherwise would have with a western ridge thought Idaho and Montana. Secondly, there is an area of lead convection well south of New England that works in conjunction with the aforementioned trailing kicker over the northern plains to bias the movement of the system on a more eastward trajectory than it otherwise would have given that western CONUS ridge position. Thus the system cannot gain enough latitude to have a major impact on the region. That being said, some significant snowfall cannot be ruled out over the cape and islands on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Expected Storm Evolution

Light snows will overspread the cape and islands around midday on Sunday, and quickly grow moderately moderate in intensity on Nantucket Island.

 

Snow may grow briefly heavy for a time on Nantucket Island, as snowfall grows more moderate over the rest of the cape. Light snow may develop back to the south shore of Boston with light accumulations. Windy conditions and some beach erosion are likely on cape cod and the islands, regardless of snowfall.

 

 

Precipitation then pulls back out to sea later in the evening and ends by midnight.

There could potentially be up to an inch or two of snowfall on the cape, islands and south shore, from a combination of the fringe of the storm and ocean effect snow.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TheBudMan said:

 

Man @CoastalWx weening his own kid.  You know things are getting thrown against the walls in that house right now.    At least we have May 1  season to look forward to, right @weatherwiz!!!!

lol he’s next to me. Just talking about some of the issues here with this. 

[Torch Tiger]

yep with this possible major storm gone, so is winter.  Fitting end

[Typhoon Tip]

In the end ... should the ECM/UKMET and any other east and/or smearing solutions prevail, the indices would have nailed this.

From the get go, going back 10 days, the -PNA was establishing.  It was actually partial ( at least) in discussion regarding warmth after the 15th. That's delayed ( perhaps ...).  In fact, the operational pattern handling never really expanded the warmth as much as the indexes would statistically correlate, but there's always negotiation room.  What we got out of that so far was a yesterday rain bust at 37 F.  Where's my beach chair!

7 days ago when this started hinting, then getting pimped, I warned early on that deep lows crawling up the coast was not supported.   The only reason this started getting more attention from me, is because there is a relative max in the PNA, while on whole, it's negative.  The thing with the PNA domain is that it is very, very geographically large.  One end of it can be positive(negative) and it may skew realities at the other end.   So when seeing this, therein is room to negotiate an event,

It's rising some 3 or 4 SD in three days there among the Can/Euro/U.S. clusters ...

So, we'll see how the "negotiations" go. 

[Henry's Weather]

Watch the euro shoe a hecs and rope us all back in

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

Plenty of consensus for a miss when you look at it objectively 

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It would be kind of sweet if DC could surpass Ray’s season total in one storm.

That’s Me:  Ray has 50.  

[SouthCoastMA]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There's only so much lipstick you can put on a pig, I bet we start seeing a GFS cave coming up.

oink oink

[weathafella]

Just now, TheSnowman said:

That’s Me:  Ray has 50.  

Wait you have 40 and claim 20 below climo to date?

[codfishsnowman]

52 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Here to check on my favorite lads -- how's it going in there?

You showed up just in time... there's a lot going on this winter across the entire forum.

[SouthCoastMA]

They gave me a perc, so if probably be more disappointed otherwise. Big AI run coming up 

[TheSnowman]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Wait you have 40 and claim 20 below climo to date?

My Climo is 61 since the great 1992 era began.  And I’ve personally measured since 2002.  I (at least in the old days) get Far more snow than neighboring Woonsocket or Providence or Pawtucket)  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

lol AIFS wayyy East

[Chrisrotary12]

I’m currently expecting 3… more days of INeedSnow posting about imagined tics NW in every model that ultimately result in a cloudy Monday. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Byeee…what could have been. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

My Climo is 61.  

Just curious how you came up with that amount