Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[jdj5211]

As exciting as this storm is, I really hope next weekends storm pans out, monster KU type potential with that setup. One at a time but hard to not be excited for what could be to come!


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[Picard]

It's going to be interesting if we get into mixing with forecast high temps for Sunday only in the upper teens to maybe 20 out this way.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Better off waiting til Sunday morning at this point

If you want to experience less of a selection and empty shelves in some stores - some people think they have to stock up for weeks - actually if its only going to be a foot or so and most of it falls Sunday before late evening - there should be little trouble on the roads Monday - the equipment they use nowadays is much more efficient then years ago and easier to remove when there won't be much traffic on the roads 

[Wannabehippie]

11 hours ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

This is the best one I've seen so far. lol 

 

Daily Mail is the NYP on steroids.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me. 

Sleet also melts more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per volume ratio.  

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 06z musing Total snow / sleet 

Using 10:1

 

SREF

 

NAM:

 

RGEM:

 

ICON:

 

GFS:

 

Euro AI AIFS:




Euro was 7.1

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Sleet also melts more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per volume ratio.  

thats why its a good idea to remove the snow from driveways and sidewalks before the sleet causes an issue - and it will be easier to do because this will be falling when most are awake

[NYER72]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

Daily Mail is the NYP on steroids.

way way way over hyped - maybe because we've been so snow starved. I'm no met but I love to observe and learn. Seen these threads so many times and you have to stay grounded. Consensus points to a snow-to-change "fair to middling" storm for the city that we've seen play out many a time, certainly sounds like nothing exceptional or historic

[jdj5211]

12Z NAM running….


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[SleetStormNJ]

Tip of cap to Sacrus for posting the overlay comparisons of the precip/accum maps.  Again verbatim - very impactful storm for the metro area coming into agreement.

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Daily Mail is the NYP on steroids.

We should like both publications as they would have the storm going more to the right.  The New York Times would have the low tracking over Pennsylvania.  Relax just having some fun, submitting a post without the word sleet in it, except for that one time.

 

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible. 

Well, that doesn’t mean that some of these areas don’t get double digits…one station in particular has a poor record in this regard.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z NAM

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

Tip of cap to Sacrus for posting the overlay comparisons of the precip/accum maps.  Again verbatim - very impactful storm for the metro area coming into agreement.

I love how you always pop in before a sleet storm 

[WeatherGeek2025]

          HRRR 12z compared to globals

 

[NJwx85]

43 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Someone along the 84 corridor is gonna get over 20”

I think that is closer to 287 but we’ll see.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I think that is closer to 287 but we’ll see.

yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ

[allgame830]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ

so you think im sitting pretty good in Northern Westchester?

[SACRUS]

1/23 12z NAM

 

 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

yeah 287 all the way down into Middlesex County NJ

In events like this, the warm nose tends to push up the Jersey coast and then up the Hudson. So Westchester might mix while interior NJ and NY stay all snow.

More concerning to me today is the potential dry slot Sunday night.

[LehighValleyDad]

I could be wrong but in comparing 500 mb heights from 0Z NAM at 42 hrs vs 12Z at 30 hours it seems this run has ticked south a bit.   Let's see how it plays out.

[SleetStormNJ]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I love how you always pop in before a sleet storm 

Haha. This is like a Super Bowl for me.  There will be thousands of texts about the pinging/mix line on KEWR radar to family and friends Sunday afternoon/evening.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I love how you always pop in before a sleet storm 

i wonder why....

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LehighValleyDad said:

I could be wrong but in comparing 500 mb heights from 0Z NAM at 42 hrs vs 12Z at 30 hours it seems this run has ticked south a bit.   Let's see how it plays out.

The mix line is further north though down in Virginia not sure what that means for us though could just be noise

[SACRUS]

 

 

[Prue11]

36 minutes ago, Picard said:

It's going to be interesting if we get into mixing with forecast high temps for Sunday only in the upper teens to maybe 20 out this way.

Surface Temps have nothing to do with mixing 

[MJO812]

Nam is faster with the onset of precip which will help with accumulations.

[MJO812]

Just now, MarcmmKU said:

From southern slider to interior coastal hugger. Incredibly rough stretch for the I95 crew. At some point something has to break and we get a 1’ snow storm again

Who cares

Enjoy the snow

[Stormlover74]

Just now, MarcmmKU said:

From southern slider to interior coastal hugger. Incredibly rough stretch for the I95 crew. At some point something has to break and we get a 1’ snow storm again

I mean yeah if you're looking for a big one. Most places will be over 20" on the season after this one though

[MJO812]

Nam looks really good on Sunday.  Lets see how much warmth comes into the area.