• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by LehighValleyDad

  1. 03Z SREFS are looking more north than 21Z .... will not complain here in the Lehigh Valley
  2. If you compare the 12Z NAM with the 18Z NAM, the closed 500mb low is at least 100 miles further north at 18Z. I believe that was a big part of the difference which allowed this run to push that razor edge cutoff north. Will be interesting to watch the 18Z GFS at 500mb to see if this it the start of something.
  3. LOL .... I have a bad feeling about this one for the Lehigh Valley ..... Suspect we're going to be under a "virga" storm for a long time while Philly gets pounded. Have seen it before.
  4. Yeah .... just a 30 mile tick north would really help us here in the Lehigh Valley
  5. I totally agree. I live 8 miles north of ABE, and I despise the gradient being this close. Would love to have some insurance room. Maybe we can get a 25 to 50 mile jog north.
  6. It's certainly possible .... The oft worshipped 1996 storm was just like that for the Lehigh Valley. I can remember 24 hours before the event I was extremely aggravated by the forecasts for 1 to 2 inches and a miss to the south. It seems for the big ones, we always have to flirt with danger (i.e. either a complete miss or a change to rain/sleet).
  7. When do the 12z Euro ensembles come out? Please tell me the mean is north of the op. Am sick of being fringed.
  8. Amen to this! .... I would love to see today's 12Z models look like the Euro's 12Z run from Sunday. Everyone would be happy.
  9. Yeah this is an amazingly annoying winter for snow lovers unless you're in the far Northeast. Previously when the Euro was the last model holding on to a more amped solution, it caved and was wrong. Now this time when it was the first with a weak out to sea solution, it looks like it's going to end up being correct. Ugh.
  10. On a mobile device so no access to much .... what's the Euro showing for ABE if you don't mind? (I know this is the wrong subforum, but it's also a busy subforum)
  11. Makes sense .... I might as well stay up and wait for it (and then be angry at myself for doing so in the morning). It comes out at 12:45 right? I have to say it would be entertaining if the Euro surprised all of us with something more wrapped up and WEST just to mix things up. ;-)
  12. If the past is any indicator in terms of model disagreements, I'd bet the Euro comes in a tick east .....just enough to screw those of us on the fence in Eastern PA while leaving those in the NYC subforum quite happy.
  13. I sure would love to see the 0Z RGEM get on board with the Euro ... I believe it's coming out now.
  14. Sorry for the IMBY post, but can't get to the details right now ... what the liquid output for ABE?
  15. Agree with this assessment. Frustrating to see the cold/snow get delayed and delayed only to then immediately see another warmup on the long range keeping the switch to colder short-lived.
  16. Makes sense ..... will be a fun storm to watch evolve. I don't think the 800' elevation IMBY is going to be enough.
  17. That RGEM snow map has an extremely sharp cutoff ... I'm in the north part of Northampton County and look to be right in a spot where 10 miles north of me gets big snows and 10 miles south of me gets zip.