Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most people think 2 feet is coming because social media and Facebook weather people have been hyping it nonstop. Official forecasts don't mean much anymore

Even at that most take the high end.   If NWS says 6-12 the average joe says "we are getting 12 inches of snow"

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, oceanctyguy said:

Agreed. I'm on the Brick/Lakewood border. 14" not happening.

8 inches for you

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Even at that most take the high end.   If NWS says 6-12 the average joe says "we are getting 12 inches of snow"

And people see the pretty snowmaps and don't understand that's not a forecast 

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Just saw latest nbm totals have gone up a few inches,  they see a  slightly cooler storm

 

Matches there forecast map. Very well

Where can I find the NBM?

[NJHurricane]

35 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

As strong high pressure retreats to the NE late Sat night into
Sunday, an expansive winter storm will impact the area from then
into Mon. Primary low pressure moving into the TN valley on Sunday
should dissipate while a secondary low forms near Cape Hatteras and
the VA capes, and then moves to a position just inside the 40N/70W
benchmark. Snow should begin in the NYC metro area after midnight
Sat night and spread NE to the rest of the CWA by daybreak, with
some accumulation of 1-2 inches possible by daybreak for the NYC
metro area. Heavy snow is then likely daytime Sunday into Sunday
evening via strong front-end H7-8 frontogenetic and thermal forcing
aided by an anticyclonic upper jet to the north. Given the cold air
mass in place, snow ratios look to be on the high side (15:1) at the
onset, and then settle down a little closer to 12:1 as heavier
precip arrives and the low to mid levels slowly warm.

Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible
enough warm air could intrude aloft to force a brief mix with sleet
and/or freezing rain Sunday night, especially for NYC and Long
Island. Have only mentioned a slight chance of this occurring, and
at any rate the damage will have been done well before then as far
as meeting 6+ inch snowfall amounts.

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches.
Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized
accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow
ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a
foot.

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

[weatherpruf]

just had the water co out they were supposed to move my meter to a pit outside; dude did not want to come in the house because i have covid, which i totally understand, that's why i told them ahead of time; he said schedule for march, he doesn't think they will be able to get to the pit for a few weeks after this storm.....

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, NJHurricane said:

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

I think upton 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, NJHurricane said:

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

Kokx area forecast discussion issued from upton

[SACRUS]

 

1/22 18z NAM updating:

 

 

[oceanctyguy]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

8 inches for you

Agreed. Then a lot of sleet and plain rain.

[Wxbear25]

NAM definitely trending towards slowing down how quickly the S/W off the coast of California interacts with the energy to the west.

Last three runs have been separating them more and more through 45 hours

 

theoretically that’s good news, but there’s a lot more in play than just that piece of the puzzle

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

That's from NWS New York's Area Forecast Discussion.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

the masses think 6 inches are a disaster. 

We've already had three events in many parts of our forum of 6 inches this winter alone. Unless you just moved here, I really don't think many people think that even with the last four milder winters.

[SACRUS]

 

 

[wthrmn654]

8 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

Sorry if I’m missing it, what discussion is this from?

Upton 

[greenmtnwx]

Mount Holly might be better with this:

 

Snow is expected to start from SW to NE in the early morning hours Sunday. Snow will be heavy at times and based on very cold temps and surfaces, snow will accumulate rapidly throughout the day Sunday. Warm air aloft may cause snow to mix or change to mixed precipitation later in the day Sunday from south to north but surface temperatures should remain below freezing for the area. Any precip type will accumulate and cause hazardous driving and transportation conditions. Total accumulations will likely range from 6–12” across the forecast area with the highest accumulations likely in central and northern areas. However, the impact of snow, mixed precipitation and unusually cold temperatures will cause dangerous conditions across the state. Snow and mixed precip could linger overnight Sunday into the daytime Monday before ending. Delays and cancellations are likely to begin the week. Stay tuned for additional updates.

[golfer67]

22 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Yes, but how do you get that, what link do you click on to see the map?

Hover over Forecasts and the drop down will appear. It's stupid how they did it, I didn't know how to get to it for the longest time either.

 

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, oceanctyguy said:

Agreed. Then a lot of sleet and plain rain.

I doubt anywhere sees plain rain. Maybe Cape May 

[wthrmn654]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where can I find the NBM?

I can't find the post I saw on Facebook but here's. 

 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, mikeysed said:

This is NBM using the new 5.0 going into effect this spring which uses a modified ratio of le:snow.

 

 

Can you include the other half of the forum area please? 

[SACRUS]

1/22 18Z NAM

 

snow arriving around midnight sunday morning

 

 

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

56 minutes ago, eduggs said:

They generally don't like to make big changes shift to shift to avoid a windshield wiper effect. Heavier snow to the south reflects the model consensus from a day or two ago. If the further north solutions persist, future maps will gradually reflect that.

Honestly that's good and smart, unlike a lot of this forum that changes the forecast off every model run lol

[wthrmn654]

[NJwx85]

18z NAM is quite a bit faster with bringing in precip overnight.

[Franklin0529]

Nam coming in flatter/colder. Keeping up with the theme of the day so far 

[MJO812]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

18z NAM is quite a bit faster with bringing in precip overnight.

Seems like precip always comes in faster than modeled. 

[Winterweatherlover]

I think if anything cuts totals it'll more likely be lack of duration than precip type. Models seem to be trending toward quicker in and quicker out which is pretty common. As someone said yesterday the 24 hour plus events are pretty rare. 

[wthrmn654]

Gfs leading the pack for once? 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Seems like precip always comes in faster than modeled. 

Always 

[CentralNJSnowman]

8 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Mount Holly might be better with this:

 

Snow is expected to start from SW to NE in the early morning hours Sunday. Snow will be heavy at times and based on very cold temps and surfaces, snow will accumulate rapidly throughout the day Sunday. Warm air aloft may cause snow to mix or change to mixed precipitation later in the day Sunday from south to north but surface temperatures should remain below freezing for the area. Any precip type will accumulate and cause hazardous driving and transportation conditions. Total accumulations will likely range from 6–12” across the forecast area with the highest accumulations likely in central and northern areas. However, the impact of snow, mixed precipitation and unusually cold temperatures will cause dangerous conditions across the state. Snow and mixed precip could linger overnight Sunday into the daytime Monday before ending. Delays and cancellations are likely to begin the week. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Brilliant strategy.  Mt. Holly issues two completely different forecasts, so they're covered no matter what.  If we get 6 inches, then this one is accurate.  If we get 15", then the other one is accurate.