Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/25 - 1/26

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A lot of family in north Georgia Alpharetta area. As depicted this would be catastrophic. Doubt it reaches these levels but...

Half those amounts in north Ga. would be catastrophic.  Too far out to zero in on ice accretion anywhere with this.  Ice storms hard to nail down even within 6-12 hours.  All depends on temperatures through the column. Surface temps especially during the daytime need to be 28 or lower (personal experience) and heavy rain is hard to accrete.  Forecast ice storms can become sleet storms if column temperature profile is not perfect.  Even 1/2" of ice can cause BIG problems, 1" in rural areas can be an absolute nightmare.

[NJwx85]

Today’s 06z Euro at 12z Sunday vs yesterday’s. What a difference.

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

if this verified i can't fathom the level of disaster this would cause

 

 

for anyone who cares (no one) i changed my flight to saturday. while you are all *potentially* seeing our first major storm in a long time, i will be in the warm embrace of southern californias never ending sunshine. will be watching the board to see how we make out.

 

lets hope we get some snow and more comes in feb!

We care. And in the embrace of the woman you love. That works too. Enjoy, we'll leave the light on for you.

[Joe4alb]

Big moves on ICON

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Icon is north and phasing 

[MJO812]

Icon 

This storm keeps trending more north because the high keeps moving away in time.

Temps in the teens on the ICON during the storm.

[Franklin0529]

Man. Get this inside Thursday an we'll all be giddy here

[jm1220]

Coming back tomorrow, would love for a MECS in the teens on the doorstep. 

[guinness77]

We are driving from Hartford back to Long Island on Sunday afternoon from my older’s volleyball tournament into the evening so…I’m fully expecting a storm and because we’ll be on the road, I’m taking full credit for it . 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon 

This storm keeps trending more north because the high keeps moving away in time.

Temps in the teens on the ICON during the storm.

Its crazy to think we don't want this coming too much further north but right now we still have a decent amount of wiggle room

[Jersey_Snowhole]

What no PBP anymore??? gfs is rolling 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

What no PBP anymore??? gfs is rolling 

Its still early on

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

What no PBP anymore??? gfs is rolling 

Not fully out yet

[Stormlover74]

AI gfs misses us so I guess that's still on the table

[SACRUS]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon 

This storm keeps trending more north because the high keeps moving away in time.

Temps in the teens on the ICON during the storm.

 

 

The slower the progression once to Sun night / Monday the retreating high will allow the secondary low to gain latitude as the Euro shows and phasing capture.   Timing is key and Euro /UK were leading there (so far)

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

AI gfs misses us so I guess that's still on the table

I remember the GFS use to suck with big storms back in the day.

[Joe4alb]

so far seems slower which is what we want....

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I remember the GFS use to suck with big storms back in the day.

It still does

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS is digging the trough into the Southwest a little deeper than the 6z Euro did but out to 12z Saturday they look very similar at H5.

[Stormlover74]

Unless it recovers gfs will be a step back

[wishcast_hater]

10 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

We are driving from Hartford back to Long Island on Sunday afternoon from my older’s volleyball tournament into the evening so…I’m fully expecting a storm and because we’ll be on the road, I’m taking full credit for it . 

My daughter will be at the same tournament. I hope they cancel or end it on Saturday.  If this thing becomes a giant storm its going to be a disaster for my wife driving. It's almost 2 hour trip home and will likely be double that. 

[mob1]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is digging the trough into the Southwest a little longer than the 6z Euro did but out to 12z Saturday they look very similar at H5.

I'm fine with a slower evolution overall, but holding back that energy SW of the Baja peninsula will mean less phasing and pumping heights out ahead. We'll see how this runs progresses, but that's easily the biggest callout for now. 

[NJwx85]

The GFS is north about 200 miles so far out to 00z Sunday. Snow into the DC area vs the VA/NC border.

[mob1]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Unless it recovers gfs will be a step back

You can't hold back that much energy and expect it to work. 

Luckily, this particular issue (holding back too much energy) is a staple with all of our big storms at this range so not overly concerned for now. 

[Brian5671]

GFS doing GFS things at this range...

[mob1]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is north about 200 miles so far out to 00z Sunday. Snow into the DC area vs the VA/NC border.

Are you sure you're looking at 12Z? It's well south. 

[NJwx85]

The GFS buries the Southern vort instead of ejecting it East. Closes off near Cabo. The Euro used to be notorious for this error.

[NJwx85]

Just now, mob1 said:

Are you sure you're looking at 12Z? It's well south. 

It was North on Saturday night.

[Metasequoia]

We are all loving the overnight trends, but we are still five days out from the first flakes. The more robust phasing seems to add extra complexity (and upside) to the forecast. How far north can this system get?

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I remember the GFS use to suck with big storms back in the day.

From the NWS New York's 2/15/2003 10:45 am AFD: