January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[WVclimo]

Had a few flakes/ snow grains earlier.  But radar returns now are just east of me.

[LeesburgWx]

Mostly sleet here but road is turning white now

[aldie 22]

Light coating mostly Styrofoam puffs

[CAPE]

Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow-

KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing
some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest
snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast.

An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on
Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close
enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east
of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a
slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring
more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the
previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the
setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The
deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking
around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some
amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast.
However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as
well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low-
levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland
areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or
more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties
with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near
the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it
should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall
totals.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Morning AFD from Mount Holly for tomorrow-

KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low slides by offshore on Sunday, bringing
some snow, mainly to areas along and south/east of I-95. The highest
snow amounts will be concentrated near the coast.

An area of low pressure develops off the coast of the Outer Banks on
Saturday Night and lifts northeast. The low looks to pass by close
enough to bring some snow to the region, mainly along and south/east
of the I-95 corridor. The latest trend with the 00z guidance was a
slight jog northwest with the track of the low, which would bring
more snow to the region. However, will not deviate much from the
previous forecast to avoid wind-shield wiping the forecast plus the
setup is not overall conducive for a significant snow event. The
deterministic forecast is more in line with HREF and NBM. Thinking
around 1-2" from I-95 on south and east. Cannot rule out some
amounts higher than 2", especially near the immediate coast.
However, there could be some mixing issues in the coastal areas as
well at onset as temperatures will be above freezing in the low-
levels. This may be offset though by higher QPF compared to inland
areas and heavier snowfall rates. Both NBM/HREF probability of 2" or
more (Advisory criteria) is around 20-30% for the coastal counties
with 10-20% near I-95. So, we may need winter weather headlines near
the coast, however the theme with this event remains unchanged as it
should just be a rather light snowfall with insignificant snowfall
totals.

Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. 

[CAPE]

1-2" in the forecast here. See how trends go today but probably a good forecast. Maybe 3" or so closer to the coast.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. 

Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Till they issue warnings later cause the models keep going to snowier. 

They hinted at that, but still quite a bit of disparity. AI aside, Its the GFS and a few of the CAMS that have more snow and are more expansive with the precip.

[CAPE]

Latest Natty Blend. For both events ofc

[CAPE]

39 here with a beautiful sunrise as clouds move in.

[TSSN+]

Finally snowing again. Let’s see how long we can go. 

[Bubbler86]

T'ed up and 33 in Pen-Mar.  

[frd]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

39 here with a beautiful sunrise as clouds move in.

That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning! 

[WxUSAF]

40-50dBz along Parrs ridge!  What is happening there?!?

[Herb@MAWS]

1 minute ago, frd said:

That was the reddish sunrise I have seen in a long time, stunning! 

Light snow plus reddish sunrise here. 34.7°

[mitchnick]

Snowing hard now.

[Eskimo Joe]

Went from a few mangled pellets to big fluff. Accumulating on everything. M0.1" Reisterstown. Legit Parrs Ridge death band setting up!

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

40-50dBz along Parrs ridge!  What is happening there?!?

Radar lighting up in NW Carroll too. Someone is going to get two  to three inches of snow from this north of I-70.

[mitchnick]

Unless we get some serious back building (and fast!), looks like it ends sooner than later.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Snowing hard now.

Barely here. Very light. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Barely here. Very light. 

Only way to describe this "event" is goofy.

[mitchnick]

Winds are from the s/se, and we're fighting dry air? Wtf?

[LeesburgWx]

No more sleet. All snow. Light, but everything is turning white

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Only way to describe this "event" is goofy.

Radar says should be like 1/2-1” per hour rates. Look outside light snow. lol. It does seem to be picking up. Think we will get the goods for at like an hour or two. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Radar lighting up in NW Carroll too. Someone is going to get two  to three inches of snow from this north of I-70.

But is it all snow in that heavier batch? 

snowing nicely here 

[Kevin Reilly]

34f humidity 54% dew point 19f (skies to the southeast fire engine red over top and all points west, southwest, northwest, north, and northeast solid clouds and dark)

Light snow car topper in progress grounds whitening Let's Go!!!!

Total snowfall accumulation trace to 0.01"

 

Let's go let the snow times begin!!!

 

I do think it's coming!!  Patience is key I am counting on something in the next two weeks.

[primetime]

Gorgeous morning in Carroll County 

20260117_074807.heic

[TSSN+]

Ok it’s finally dumping snow. Heavies have arrived. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Radar says should be like 1/2-1” per hour rates. Look outside light snow. lol. It does seem to be picking up. Think we will get the goods for at like an hour or two. 

Suddenly snowing heavy. The most temperamental storm ever!

[DDweatherman]

The Hanover and map crew should get an hour or two of heavy stuff. 1-2” I bet