January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[snowfan]

Ringing in the new year with renewed hope for the white stuff piling up in our yards. LFG!

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty decent pattern as we go into early January. This is a 5 day mean from EPS….note how all the lower heights are now down south. Going to be more receptive to potential coastal storms

This is from Will on SNE.  I like the look IMO

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m very optimistic for January. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, yoda said:

This is from Will on SNE.  I like the look IMO

If @ORH_wxmanand @psuhoffmanare intrigued, that's good enough for me.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If @ORH_wxmanand @psuhoffmanare intrigued, that's good enough for me.

Also, when @CoastalWx pops in, it’s getting real.

[CoastalWx]

Might need a better PAC for you guys, but definitely improves.

[frd]

Yummy 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Might need a better PAC for you guys, but definitely improves.

That's it...shut er' down, turn off the lights, grab your bats and balls.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Yummy 

 

That west coast trough suggests to me we get a progressive flow. But what does this weenie know?

[frd]

 

Eric is very excited about the snow potential for the Mid Atlantic Jan 6 th to the 11 th  

 

 

Eric Webb@webberweather

 

 

This pattern has real big dog potential, esp in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Very El Niño-esque here with the Pacific trough & -NAO coupled with a strong subtropical jet. The strong subtropical jet is a lagged effect from the big MJO event over the Indo-Pacific in late Nov & early Dec.

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

Finally some improvement in the PNA 

 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That west coast trough suggests to me we get a progressive flow. But what does this weenie know?

I think that may limit like big dog potential... but 4-8" type storms very much in play looking at that

[Bob Chill]

It's looking like 50/50 odds of a giant storm to me. We either get one or we dont. 50/50. Just like megamillioms, 50/50 every ticket. Dems goodz maphs amirite?

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Yummy 

 

I was trying to figure out why the snowfall mean onbthe Eps was as low as it was for that period and it has 850's AN. As a result, the decent snowfall on the Eps is further north into central PA. Actually, I'm sorta surprised by the AN 850's considering that 5H look, but maybe we disregard 850's at this point and live in denial.

[pazzo83]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might need a better PAC for you guys, but definitely improves.

at this point we just need precipitation in any form.  It's getting bad.

[Bob Chill]

Jokes aside, if there is any month that doesn't require perfection or even "good" to snow, it's Jan. Doesn't look like east ridge hell anywhere on guidance. Just need activity. Jan can be on the dry side compared to Feb/Mar but it can also be active. I never lost optimism in Jan producing and odds seem above avg for a couple events. Luck and chaos will figure it out as usual lol

[Terpeast]

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies. 

[cbmclean]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

Yummy 

 

I'm just going to save Chuck the trouble of posting: 507 dm in Alaska means not cold enough.

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might need a better PAC for you guys, but definitely improves.

Very Nino-ish look, especially D10-15, on the EPS.  

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t usually start paying attention to thermals until less than a week out. Models don’t do as good a job with low level temperatures compared to 500mb beyond a week. It’s a well known warm bias with the euro weeklies. 

That's the scientific reason not to worry about them, but what do you suggest for weenie paranoia? 

[wxdude64]

It was a fairly crappy week weather-wise (especially if you wanted whiteness for Christmas), but after the first half of Dec and now 1st half of Jan looking better, I be happy. Super rare we go wall to wall with cold and snow, there's always a warm/dry spell at some point, sadly it was Christmas week this year. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nino-ish look, especially D10-15, on the EPS.  

To be frank it makes me nervous.  We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye.  It's a delicate balance.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

To be frank it makes me nervous.  We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye.  It's a delicate balance.

It is.  The EPS does show that a lot of Canada is AN or well AN.  But it's January.  That's still plenty cold air.  It's not like central Canada is in the 30s/40s during that period, which is when we're really up shit creek.   

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's the scientific reason not to worry about them, but what do you suggest for weenie paranoia? 

I’ll let Ji handle this one 

[winter_warlock]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nino-ish look, especially D10-15, on the EPS.  

 Well since la nina isn't doing us any favors.. I'll gladly take a more El nino look lol

[bncho]

Which pattern would y'all rather chance? Jan 2025 or the advertised Jan 2026 and why?

[winter_warlock]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's looking like 50/50 odds of a giant storm to me. We either get one or we dont. 50/50. Just like megamillioms, 50/50 every ticket. Dems goodz maphs amirite?

Actually mega million odds are alot smaller then 50/50 lol

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

Which pattern would y'all rather chance? Jan 2025 or the advertised Jan 2026 and why?

We already had a Jan 2025 last year, so let’s roll the dice with Jan 2026

[LP08]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's the scientific reason not to worry about them, but what do you suggest for weenie paranoia? 

Probably 3 members have us in the 80s so it screws it all up….weenie answer

[Heisy]

Garbage model, but it’s fun to look at. Roll that forward a few days




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