3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Day 2 MOD Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looks like a lotta tornado warnings in the Midwest right now. 

[wxmeddler]

I can see early dismissals for places in central VA, even far southern MD, but don't see it for the capitol region. The squall should be late enough in the day not to matter for places along I-95. Even so, the safest place for kids would be in schools. The issue is panicked parents rushing to pick up kids and getting caught up exposed in the parking lot.

[adelphi_sky]

Prince George's County 2hr early dismissal. My son goes to a charter school in DC in pods (trailers). A bit concerned about that. DC hasn't called for early dismissal. 

[Joshb32689]

24 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Looks like a lotta tornado warnings in the Midwest right now. 

Quite the assortment of hazards across the country. 

[Hyphnx]

16 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I can see early dismissals for places in central VA, even far southern MD, but don't see it for the capitol region. The squall should be late enough in the day not to matter for places along I-95. Even so, the safest place for kids would be in schools. The issue is panicked parents rushing to pick up kids and getting caught up exposed in the parking lot.

Schools are calling it for tomorrow. Chesterfield is out 

[yoda]

Latest tornado watch issued for KY and IN 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0058.html

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 58
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   825 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and Southern Indiana
     Central and Northern Kentucky

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 825 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely

   SUMMARY...A severe squall line is forecast to rapidly move
   east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. 
   Damaging gusts will likely be the most prevalent hazard, but a
   couple of tornadoes are also possible with embedded mesovortices
   within the squall line.

 

[Scraff]

Hoco 3 hour dismissal tomorrow. 

[Kmlwx]

I have the Ellinwood scoop! 

 

[MillvilleWx]

For these parts, a pretty good severe setup. I lived in Midland, TX for 5 years, so this is relatively ho-hum. Wake me up where there are 60k ft topped super cells with baseball+ sized hail and naders 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

Simple-Erring on the side of caution. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

For these parts, a pretty good severe setup. I lived in Midland, TX for 5 years, so this is relatively ho-hum. Wake me up where there are 60k ft topped super cells with baseball+ sized hail and naders 

And temps higher than the low 60s

[wasnow215]

41 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Looks like a lotta tornado warnings in the Midwest right now. 

And they were just "enhanced"

[Diggiebot]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I have the Ellinwood scoop! 

 

Locked in for the winds. Tornados are the wild card 

[Heisy]

[Ellinwood]

I need to post more.

the tl;dr is I could care less about the tornado potential since the wind is the big story and I ain't chasing no storms going 50+ mph through this region. Doesn't seem like an "everyone gets hit" setup but the more potent stuff looks like it's gonna hit hard where it hits.

[snowfan]

FWIW, OPM is going with unscheduled telework

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

Really? My kid will be home by noon and now under my watch instead of schools in the event of a serious weather threat. Makes sense to me to send kids home 

[NorthArlington101]

FWIW, OPM is going with unscheduled telework

Where are you seeing that

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Where are you seeing that

OPM Director

[Ellinwood]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Really? My kid will be home by noon and now under my watch instead of schools in the event of a serious weather threat. Makes sense to me to send kids home 

I was on the fence about messaging my kid's teacher saying I was gonna get my kid out early (we walk to/from school) so now I'm glad I don't have to make that decision myself 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Where are you seeing that

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

 

[NorthArlington101]

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
 

Wasn’t updated when I checked - need to just get my Twitter notifications on for their head.

Think I need to go in anyway but sounds like I can maybe jet off at noon. Good deal as far as I’m concerned.

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Really? My kid will be home by noon and now under my watch instead of schools in the event of a serious weather threat. Makes sense to me to send kids home 

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

[SnowenOutThere]

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

For these parts, a pretty good severe setup. I lived in Midland, TX for 5 years, so this is relatively ho-hum. Wake me up where there are 60k ft topped super cells with baseball+ sized hail and naders 

10 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

I need to post more.

the tl;dr is I could care less about the tornado potential since the wind is the big story and I ain't chasing no storms going 50+ mph through this region. Doesn't seem like an "everyone gets hit" setup but the more potent stuff looks like it's gonna hit hard where it hits.

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

I hope the students don’t hit your impressive stash. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Just saw that. That's exactly what I want to see! 

You can get some awesome shots over here as you know with it being flat and wide open. I have so many cool shelf cloud shots.

eta-shots like my current profile pic 

[Ellinwood]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

Highly dependent on the setup, but for tomorrow I'm looking for CAPE >500 (with closer to 1000 for the higher-end scenarios).

I'd emphasize that this isn't a GO HIDE ALL AFTERNOON scenario so much as you don't want to be caught out and about if/when the storms roll through. The higher-end stuff will probably be pretty localized.

[GreyHat]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

 

Unfortunately my office doesn't do teleworking. Will just have to see how bad things get in order for them to let people go home early. 

[The Dude]

9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Living with a kindergarten teacher, so much more goes into a lot of this.  I guess if you don’t have kids or know a teacher, it’s hard for most to understand the logistics of what actually goes on inside a school during these severe weather events. It’s not easy and pretty intense and stressful. Better to have kids in their own homes under their own family supervision. 

Agreed.  Depending on what period a storm hits, my son's "weather shelter" at school, is sitting under windows and putting his arms over his head...

[wxmeddler]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

My thoughts align with Mark's (surprise surprise). Any cell that breaks out ahead of the line should be taken with caution, but the squall line damage should be fairly localized. This will NOT be a derecho situation where there is widespread 60-80 mph gusts. The 60-80 mph gusts will be localized into 1-3 mile wide swaths.

Parameters I'll be watching is MLCAPE, 3CAPE, 0-2km SR Winds